by rburgh » Mon Oct 03, 2011 7:24 pm
Ruth hit his 60 HR in 154 games, facing pitchers who rarely allowed HR's because nobody else was trying to hit them. So there were no HR to speak of on the pitcher cards; he has to hit all 60 off his own card.
Unless you're in a live draft league (and, often, not even then), you can't afford a whole rotation (not to mention bullpen) that has no HR on their cards. (Yes, you can easily arrange no ballpark HR's, but most of those guys will have a HR/flyout split on their card).
Of the top 50 aggregate HR cards according to DD, exactly 8 are averaging 60 HR per use.
Bonds 2001 - he hit 73 HR that year, and averages 78. One of the most remarkable facts about that year was that he hit over 30 HR in Pac Bell Park; all other LH batters that appeared there during the season hit 1. Total.
McGwire 98 - He hit 70 that year, and averages 69. I don't know what the park HR factor for Busch Stadium that year was, but it wasn't a big number.
Kiner 49 - He 54 that year, in Forbes, in 154 games, and averages 67.
Ruth 27 - He hit 60 that year, and averages 63. But he also averages 703 PA here; he had 677 then. (AB + BB only)
Mantle 61 - He hit 54 that year, and averages 62. But he averages 701 PA here, and had 640 in real life.
Maris 61 - 61 and 61. But 622 PA here and 684 in real life. This is the only result in this group that makes me think his card is "juiced."
Hack Wilson 30 - 56 and 60. 693 PA here, 690 in real life. This could be a "juiced" card, or it could be that Wrigley was not such a great HR park that year.
Ruth 21 - 60 and 59. But 735 PA here and 685 in real life.
I'm sorry, I don't see much of a conspiracy here, or much bias toward hitters. Lineups here are very deep (no Jumping Joe Dugan's and Mark Koenig's, and no pitchers to hit most of the time) and generate lots of plate appearances for everybody.
The game is what it is. Statistically, it's pretty accurate for the most part. I repeat what I said a few posts earlier on this thread - ERA is a second order statistic, and is affected by both the increased on-base percentages of the average hitter in the game, and also by the increased slugging percentages. The top 150 hitters here, by salary, averaged 39 HR per season. The card set as a whole averaged 11. But everybody starts as many of those top 150 guys as they can.
You want to see pitchers have great years? Start a theme league, where there are no batters allowed with salaries over $6 million. Pitchers will dominate, but those batter cards are still good enough that they won't make their real-life numbers. I would guess an "average all-star" has about a $4.5 million salary here. There are a number of real-life MVP's with cards so bad they are rarely used (Dick Groat, Don Mattingly, Jeff Burroughs, and Don Baylor, to name a few).