Thinking about Joe Morgan

[The Last Druid]

Problem for me with Morgan is that I don't find shelling out big bucks at lower caps for leadoff hitters is a great strategy; not when I can get 1's defensively for under 3M with 50 OB chances. But in live drafts he certainly seems to be among the top 50 picks and I'm generally quite happy to get him in the fourth round.

His '75 card is a much better card [b:0f37a26d43]and[/b:0f37a26d43] a better value than the '74 card. At least on paper. But for some reason (and I think the price difference isn't it) the '74 card scores quite well at the lower caps whereas the other really doesn't.

Sort of sad because I do think, in real life, that Morgan was the best player in baseball for much of the 70's. We really should have his best card.

[PotKettleBlack]

[quote:b86dfde180="PillPop"][quote:b86dfde180="johnnyblazers"](I'd take the expensive Collins, Alomar, Lajoie over Morgan). The OBP and defense are attractive and he'll get 20-25 hrs in a lefty park which would make Morgan a decent card in 140 but only in a lefty or Polo 41 type park[/quote:b86dfde180]

I'm intrigued by Alomar but I never see any of those cards do well and the numbers on Diamond Dope actuals support this. I don't get it... why are those $9+m cards?[/quote:b86dfde180]

Defense. Compare his error numbers to other 2b players. One of the top in the game, and not an utter waste with the bat at a position with a premium at D.

Fwiw, I like Morgan in the 130 random. His walks go everywhere, as does his base stealing. He never hits for average, unless you put him in an offensive park, but the walks always put a dangerous base stealer on, and the clutch helps the bottom of the order guys come around. You don't see a lot of quality OB guys with speed an pos clutch, much less top flight D at a top position. Certainly a mil better than alomar.

[gkhd11a]

The 1975 card is Morgan's first year of being MVP,the year of his career best batting average and lifetime best year of OBP. in 1976 he hit a few more home runs. His 1976 also featured more errors in fewer games. Considering he hit under .260 for 10 of his 22 seasons I think think we have very representative choices for Morgan in this game.

Along with Honus Wagner, Tris Speaker, Ichiro and Biz Mackey, Joe forms a nice addition on a 100 million Fenway '67 team for me.

And for a million dollars the 1975 card in Fenway '67 has 13% greater chance of reaching base when the roll is on his card - which is what I prefer in a premier lead-off or 2nd hitter and the extra on base is almost exclusively from additional hits (or about 20 more singles and 15 extra walks while getting 8 less home runs, on the season) for the extra million it makes for a premier extraordinarily reliable lead-off hitter in 140 million. He typically is good for 120 -150 runs scored and 25-30 home runs for me in a 140 million dollar league.

[The Last Druid]

Morgan hit over 60% more homeruns in 1976 than in 1975. A far cry from "a few more homeruns."

His OPS+ was 186 for 1976 vs. 169 for 1975, a 10% jump

His Slg. Pct was .576 in 1976 vs. .508 in 1975 about a 15% increase.

He made a negligible 2 more errors in 1976 in 9 less games than in 1975. So he probably skyrockets to a 1e15 from a 1e13. He made the same errors in 1974 (1e14) in about 5 % more chances than in 1976.

His BA dropped .007 pts. in 1976 or less than a 3% decrease in BA.

His OBP decreased from .466 to .444, exactly a 5% decrease.

The two seasons are barely comparable. The 1976 season is vastly better. And because he had 599 plate appearances he is a greater injury risk in 1976. Which probably will make that card cheaper than the 1975 card.

And as far as representative cards go, top tier HOF'ers are supposed to have their best cards represented. And he was the best second baseman since Hornsby retired. But don't take just my word for it. What follows is excerpted from Corcoran's Inside baseball column http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/cliff_corcoran/07/22/roberto.alomar.second.base/index.html

[quote:f6c9df25d1]here are the all-time career leaders in bWAR at second base, using only seasons in which second base was the listed player's primary position:
Player bWAR
Eddie Collins 126.7
Joe Morgan 103.5
Rogers Hornsby 102.5
Nap Lajoie 98.8
Charlie Gehringer 80.9
Lou Whitaker 69.7
Frankie Frisch 63.8
Roberto Alomar 63.5
Willie Randolph 60.5
Bobby Grich 60.1
Ryne Sandberg 59.4
Jeff Kent 58.8

And here are the leaders in peak performance at second base using the average bWAR of the five best seasons during which second base was the listed player's primary position:
Player bWAR
Rogers Hornsby 11.44
Eddie Collins 10.20
Joe Morgan 10.20
Nap Lajoie 9.16
Jackie Robinson 8.36
Charlie Gehringer 8.02
Ryne Sandberg 7.04
Frankie Frisch 7.00
Joe Gordon 6.80
Roberto Alomar 6.68
Craig Biggio 6.62
Chase Utley 6.56
Bobby Grich 6.52
Rod Carew 6.22
Chuck Knoblauch 6.06

Still, if pressed, my list of the top 10 second basemen of all-time would probably look like this:

1. Eddie Collins

2. Joe Morgan

3. Rogers Hornsby

4. Nap Lajoie

5. Charlie Gehringer

6. Frankie Frisch

7. Roberto Alomar

8. Ryne Sandberg

9. Bobby Grich

10. Lou Whitaker

[/quote:f6c9df25d1]

[gkhd11a]

Petrosian the math should work out that he will get 10 more home runs (27 vs 17) yet 25 less singles and walks and be a 15 game injury risk, which while making the card cheaper does not make it a better card that is value based on the game and not on the card itself. His steals also should be reduced as he had 11% less of those. Overall he will be an inferior leadoff hitter but maybe a better #2 hitter against righties. It would also be an extremely slanted card as 24 of his 27 homeruns came against righties (with an OPS of 1.14 vs .762 vs lefties. His 2R 1975 featured OPS of 1.028 and .847 as a comparison.

So in the end you'd probably have a 9.0 - 9.5 million dollar card that can be rendered ineffective with a left handed pitcher.

[ShakeyBoomer]

Petro - please elaborate, even just a little, on what under 3m players there are who are 1's defensively and have 50 OBP chances on their cards. There might be those with 40 but 50 - really?

[sdajr76]

he is probably referring to a platoon situation.

-steven

[PillPop]

Thanks again for all the input. I ended up picking Morgan in my draft to go along with 41 DiMaggio and the new Hugh Duffy (and the 10.79 Ed Walsh). Where the rest goes, nobody knows-- least of all me, as I tend to improvise these things. I'll post the team when it's ready.

Happy New Year, everybody!

[The Last Druid]

Yes, definitely platoons. And yes 50.

[gkhd11a]

QUIZ - Identify the vs righty side of the platoon with 50 OBP chances on their card

White, Frank (1983) KC-exp R 2B 1e11 549 35 11 77 20 13 .260 .283 .406 1 5L 2.32M
White, Frank (1980) KC-exp R 2B 1e12 560 23 7 60 19 19 .264 .289 .357 1 3L 1.57M
Melillo, Ski (1934) SLB-pre R 2B 1e13 552 19 2 55 28 4 .241 .277 .297 1 1L .72M
Seay, Dick (NeL) NeL R 2B 1e14 546 11 5 42 44 6 .256 .312 .315 1 1L 1.72M
Ferris, Hobe (1906) BOS-db R 2B 1e15 495 25 2 44 10 8 .244 .258 .360 1 E 1.77M
Hall, Irv (1945) PHA-pre R 2B 1e15 616 17 0 50 35 3 .261 .298 .305 1 E .80M
Melillo, Ski (1930) SLB-pre R 2B 1e15 574 30 5 59 23 15 .256 .287 .369 1 4L 1.55M
Richardson, Bobby (1964) NYY-post R 2B 1e15 679 25 4 50 28 11 .267 .294 .333 1 3R 1.53M
Trillo, Manny (1979) PHI-exp R 2B 1e15 431 22 6 42 20 4 .260 .296 .357 1 E 1.53M
Knoop, Bobby (1968) CAL-exp R 2B 1e16 494 20 3 39 35 3 .249 .301 .324 1 E .90M
Ferris, Hobe (1903) BOS-db R 2B 1e17 525 19 9 66 25 11 .251 .287 .366 0 E 1.90M
Cutshaw, George (1914) BKN-db R 2B 1e18 583 22 2 78 30 34 .257 .292 .346 1 E 2.18M
Knabe, Otto (1910) PHI-db R 2B 1e18 510 18 1 44 47 15 .261 .321 .325 1 E 1.95M
Richardson, Bobby (1961) NYY-post R 2B 1e18 662 17 3 49 30 9 .261 .295 .316 0 1L .87M
Demoss, Bingo (NeL) NeL R 2B 1e20 507 14 1 55 55 36 .245 .319 .294 1 E 1.34M
Evers, Johnny (1906) CHC-db L 2B 1e20 533 17 1 51 36 49 .255 .305 .315 0 1R 2.71M
Niehoff, Bert (1915) PHI-db R 2B 1e22 529 27 2 49 30 21 .238 .280 .308 1 E .94M
Reynolds, Harold (1991) SEA-exp S 2B 1e23 631 34 3 57 72 28 .254 .332 .341 1 E 2.05M