End of season slump - Part 2
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by PotKettleBlack » Fri Feb 24, 2012 2:09 pm
[quote:ce5d48e4cd="fraank123"]in fairness to HAL i need to add that with 3 games left to go one of my teams broke open a close race by so far going 16 and 1 with the last eleven in a row. ALL HAIL HAL[/quote:ce5d48e4cd]
F HAL. Unrealistic. Stuff like this NEVER happens in the real world.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/9/29/2457299/red-sox-rays-braves-wild-card-jose-reyes-mlb-playoffs
F HAL. Unrealistic. Stuff like this NEVER happens in the real world.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/9/29/2457299/red-sox-rays-braves-wild-card-jose-reyes-mlb-playoffs
- PotKettleBlack
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by Valen » Fri Feb 24, 2012 4:27 pm
[quote:c843f841a8]especially since two of the teams finished at least 8 games better than the Bill James Pythagorean exp w/l even with the late season slides.[/quote:c843f841a8]
I remember reading Bill James when he first came up with expected wins. According to his logic a team with more wins than expected was running on luck and would fall back when the luck ran out. Initially he argued it was a predictor of success/failure the following season as a team should not be lucky or unlucky 2 consecutive years. One could argue a team most of the time will not be lucky in both halves of a season.
Though for full disclosure should be noted he has revised his expected wins formula at least once as analysis indicated as offense across baseball increased the old formula became less in line with actual results.
Consider this: If the formula needed adjusting to account for increased offense during steroid era what needs to happen to it with the high octane offenses of ATG? Does that formula truly hold up when average scores are 6 to 7 runs a game or more?
I remember reading Bill James when he first came up with expected wins. According to his logic a team with more wins than expected was running on luck and would fall back when the luck ran out. Initially he argued it was a predictor of success/failure the following season as a team should not be lucky or unlucky 2 consecutive years. One could argue a team most of the time will not be lucky in both halves of a season.
Though for full disclosure should be noted he has revised his expected wins formula at least once as analysis indicated as offense across baseball increased the old formula became less in line with actual results.
Consider this: If the formula needed adjusting to account for increased offense during steroid era what needs to happen to it with the high octane offenses of ATG? Does that formula truly hold up when average scores are 6 to 7 runs a game or more?
- Valen
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by coyote303 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:50 pm
Collapses don't just happen at the end of the season, although they are certainly more noticeable then.
My current team started 11-4 and followed that up by going 6-18, which included a 10-game losing streak. A decent 12-game stretch (8-4) was followed by going 2-9. And that was followed by winning 12 of my last 13 games. All for a grand total of 39-36.
What a roller coaster. I have no idea how they will finish.
My current team started 11-4 and followed that up by going 6-18, which included a 10-game losing streak. A decent 12-game stretch (8-4) was followed by going 2-9. And that was followed by winning 12 of my last 13 games. All for a grand total of 39-36.
What a roller coaster. I have no idea how they will finish.
- coyote303
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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