[quote:f614295fe1]V- If my supposition is correct- then you absolutely cant/shouldnt/wouldnt want to weight them based on useage; Thats an ever-changing variable rather than an absolute even one.
Keep in mind that Im not a maths person, so am hoping my explanation makes sense. [/quote:f614295fe1]
You explanation makes sense and if you took a week by week reading it might fluctuate some. But I wold bet if you averaged the thousands of leagues that get played the standard deviation of it on a week to week basis would be very small perhaps going up or down occasionally by a tenth of a dice roll.
In other words if the average park used for the last thousand leagues is 9.3 I would bet the average for the next hundred would be within a 9.1 to 9.5 range. And barring addition of any new parks would be within 9.2 to 9.4 for the next thousand.
Even if there was slightly more variation than that it would still be closer to real value than arbitrarily designating 8-8-8-8 or whatever as the average base park to use.
But this is really just a side discussion of low relevance. Of more importance I think agabriel is right, pricing should be formula based and simply ran against the data in the card database. The need to have that calculated price adjusted based on the subjective opinion of any individual or small group of individuals just feels off to me.
And if averages for ballpark usage do vary significantly over time then if the pricing formula was strictly a formula without subjective adjustment the formula could be reran against the database say twice a year and pricing reset to reflect the changing usage pattern of the cards.
ATG new cards batch #5 debuts 1/30/12
by cristano1 » Sat Jan 21, 2012 7:25 pm
there are only 6 categories needed to price a batter:
1) bb/single
2) double/triple
3) hr
4) out
5) defense
6) injury
weight bphr and bp1b using 10/10/10/10
distinguishing between gidp k sac other out is insignificant
stolen bases is meaningless since 70/30 safe/out is a wash
clutch has zero relevance
running has zero relevance
this is a simple formula that takes only a few hours to create. especially when one has access to all completed leagues.
1) bb/single
2) double/triple
3) hr
4) out
5) defense
6) injury
weight bphr and bp1b using 10/10/10/10
distinguishing between gidp k sac other out is insignificant
stolen bases is meaningless since 70/30 safe/out is a wash
clutch has zero relevance
running has zero relevance
this is a simple formula that takes only a few hours to create. especially when one has access to all completed leagues.
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by Valen » Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:06 am
I would be disappointed if just 6 categories were all that the forumula looked at.
The difference between a double play and a K is insignificant? It can be the difference between a scoreless inning and a big inning. Anyone who has pitched can tell you what a doubly play accomplishes.
I would hope the forumula also took in to account stolen base ratings, jump as well as success cutoffs. Running rating should be in there. Maybe the amount designated for a 17 run rating instead of a 10 would be small, but even if it were only a thousand dollars different it should still be accounted for in the formula. Ditto bunt and hit&run ratings. I would hope clutch ratings would increase or decrease the price slightly depending on whether it is positive or negative. I would also factor in to the price things on the card like fly(lf)B that could occasionally net a sacrifice fly. The groundball C that advances a runner should get a little added on. And anyone who has played a lot of board game strat knows the presence of absence of those little * following a single or double can have an occfasional impact on scoring and thus should be some component of the formula. I would even include whether a hitter were RH, LH or a switch hitter in there a little.
You want to know what else I would do. Track the actuals put up by the card. A guy who is an 8R ca be valueable as platoon player and to the extent HAL avoids lefties on the card the value nudges higher. Ditto for the 8L hitter. Hard to place reliebe values on these cards because their usage patters should always gravitate more strongly in a certain direction then most resulting in legitimiat increase i performance if used right. I love to platoon Clemente and get numbers better than his card in doing so. That might be difficult to code in to a formula gut the ongoing actual results that card produces is a definite measurabel and should impact pricing. I fact using those simulated actuals as a variable to treak the cost up or down would be a boost to the game. Formulas could be reran once a year to correspond to the lowest volume of leagues luanching. As participation bottoms out you run a dual promotion. All new price on all cards top to bottom based on the new and improved formula coupled with a % off sale. The freshness of new prices coupled could drive many new leagues starting and big boost in revenue.
That might be a bit of an impossible dream, but I think at the very least we should have the posting of exactly the formula is. If the formula cannot be post with the formulas used I would still be nice to list all the factors that are use even if we do not get the weight values associated with that card,
The difference between a double play and a K is insignificant? It can be the difference between a scoreless inning and a big inning. Anyone who has pitched can tell you what a doubly play accomplishes.
I would hope the forumula also took in to account stolen base ratings, jump as well as success cutoffs. Running rating should be in there. Maybe the amount designated for a 17 run rating instead of a 10 would be small, but even if it were only a thousand dollars different it should still be accounted for in the formula. Ditto bunt and hit&run ratings. I would hope clutch ratings would increase or decrease the price slightly depending on whether it is positive or negative. I would also factor in to the price things on the card like fly(lf)B that could occasionally net a sacrifice fly. The groundball C that advances a runner should get a little added on. And anyone who has played a lot of board game strat knows the presence of absence of those little * following a single or double can have an occfasional impact on scoring and thus should be some component of the formula. I would even include whether a hitter were RH, LH or a switch hitter in there a little.
You want to know what else I would do. Track the actuals put up by the card. A guy who is an 8R ca be valueable as platoon player and to the extent HAL avoids lefties on the card the value nudges higher. Ditto for the 8L hitter. Hard to place reliebe values on these cards because their usage patters should always gravitate more strongly in a certain direction then most resulting in legitimiat increase i performance if used right. I love to platoon Clemente and get numbers better than his card in doing so. That might be difficult to code in to a formula gut the ongoing actual results that card produces is a definite measurabel and should impact pricing. I fact using those simulated actuals as a variable to treak the cost up or down would be a boost to the game. Formulas could be reran once a year to correspond to the lowest volume of leagues luanching. As participation bottoms out you run a dual promotion. All new price on all cards top to bottom based on the new and improved formula coupled with a % off sale. The freshness of new prices coupled could drive many new leagues starting and big boost in revenue.
That might be a bit of an impossible dream, but I think at the very least we should have the posting of exactly the formula is. If the formula cannot be post with the formulas used I would still be nice to list all the factors that are use even if we do not get the weight values associated with that card,
- Valen
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by Munich_Man » Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:37 am
[quote:d340292a64="weinberg"]there are only 6 categories needed to price a batter:
1) bb/single
2) double/triple
3) hr
4) out
5) defense
6) injury
weight bphr and bp1b using 10/10/10/10
distinguishing between gidp k sac other out is insignificant
stolen bases is meaningless since 70/30 safe/out is a wash
clutch has zero relevance
running has zero relevance
this is a simple formula that takes only a few hours to create. especially when one has access to all completed leagues.[/quote:d340292a64]
Simple much?
1) bb/single
2) double/triple
3) hr
4) out
5) defense
6) injury
weight bphr and bp1b using 10/10/10/10
distinguishing between gidp k sac other out is insignificant
stolen bases is meaningless since 70/30 safe/out is a wash
clutch has zero relevance
running has zero relevance
this is a simple formula that takes only a few hours to create. especially when one has access to all completed leagues.[/quote:d340292a64]
Simple much?
- Munich_Man
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by cristano1 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:02 pm
ive got the value of a AAA vs E stolen bases at -5k. Ive got the value of a 17 runner vs an 8 at 0k. A +12 clutch vs a -12 clutch at 15k. 25 GIDP vs 25 popouts at 20k. With players priced in the millions, these things could be accounted for, but its unnecessary. I dont really care if Honus Wagner is worth 11.35m or 11.39m. The amount of time spent programming these things isn't worth the effort in my opinion.
ps that is why I always have a catcher with a 0 or +1 arm... i want teams to run on me... the only steal setting that works is conservative...
ps that is why I always have a catcher with a 0 or +1 arm... i want teams to run on me... the only steal setting that works is conservative...
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Valen » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:19 pm
[quote:aa307cfeeb]I dont really care if Honus Wagner is worth 11.35m or 11.39m.[/quote:aa307cfeeb]
I do care. Sometimes a small amount means he difference between fitting that player under the cap or not. It could force you to make a different selection at another position. And you gain nothing by ignoring any feature because you are not going to calculate these things by hand. You are going to plug them in to a formula and the computer takes care of the rest. The time difference for a human is negligible. So why ignore anything?
I do care. Sometimes a small amount means he difference between fitting that player under the cap or not. It could force you to make a different selection at another position. And you gain nothing by ignoring any feature because you are not going to calculate these things by hand. You are going to plug them in to a formula and the computer takes care of the rest. The time difference for a human is negligible. So why ignore anything?
- Valen
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by TRW » Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:11 pm
Pricing will never be accurate for this game. You can site all the stats and factors, but the formula obviously does not take into account ballpark effects. Certain players are just going to be worth a lot more in certain ballparks.
Correct me if I am wrong, but for example - isn't R Kiner more valuable in Hilltop than in League Park? Ideally there would be multiple prices for each player according to which ballpark he is being drafted to.
I know it is never going to happen, but I think this is a huge factor in the expected performance of a player considering the extreme stadiums that are being used.
Correct me if I am wrong, but for example - isn't R Kiner more valuable in Hilltop than in League Park? Ideally there would be multiple prices for each player according to which ballpark he is being drafted to.
I know it is never going to happen, but I think this is a huge factor in the expected performance of a player considering the extreme stadiums that are being used.
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by Stormcrow2012 » Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:18 pm
Weinberg said:[quote:d9116cc696]ps that is why I always have a catcher with a 0 or +1 arm... i want teams to run on me... the only steal setting that works is conservative... [/quote:d9116cc696]
You have obviously never played the actual CD-ROM game.
You have obviously never played the actual CD-ROM game.
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