60 Midway-Normalization Kicks In? YES!

[raslavens]

It seems to me the key here is finding a 2nd half performance from Bonds or someone like him that equates to the above-mentioned 1st half. Anyone have examples like that?

[nevdully's]

[quote:c4d398be14]It seems to me the key here is finding a 2nd half performance from Bonds or someone like him that equates to the above-mentioned 1st half. Anyone have examples like that? [/quote:c4d398be14]

Exactly!

[macnole]

Exactly not!
If you flip a coin 10 times, about two thirds of the time you’ll end up with somewhere between 4 and 6 heads. However, you might end up with a much different result. In fact, about every one in 50 times (2%) your 10 flips will produce a 9-to-1 or 10-to-0 split between heads and tails. If you actually got one of these more extreme results, would it prove that the coin that you’ve been flipping was not fair? Of course not!

[nevdully's]

Exactly! so show us the time here it's the equivalent of 10-0....Bonds or such hitting 60 in the 1st half followed by 60 in the second half....

Treyomo discovered and uncovered hr normalization being turned on (how many remember that) by asking "how come a big first half is never followed by a big second half?" Seems once in awhile it should be, right?

[Proverbial Psalms]

[quote:21d7ed96b1="macnole"]In fact, about every one in 50 times (2%) your 10 flips will produce a 9-to-1 or 10-to-0 split between heads and tails[/quote:21d7ed96b1]

Not sure that really is in fact.

I get 1 out of 256 (0.4%) for the 9 in a row case and 1 in 512 (or 0.2%) for the 10 in a rown case... assuming you don't care about first result, either heads or tails, just that the next 8-9 flips are also that original outcome

[raslavens]

I wanna see the season where Bonds hits 30 HRs in the first half and 60 HRs in the second half. Anybody got an example?

[Treyomo]

The normalization that I uncovered happened at a certain point in the season, where the system essentially was programmed to say - from this point on, turn rolls x, y, and z from HRs to other hits, and from other hits to out. That normalization occurred not only for HRs, but averages as well. It was programmed that over the course of the season, the player would not significantly exceed his card (prorated out to 162 games).

If Bernie was willing to fund the project ( I don't win credits like I did back in ATG I :( ), I could create a similar league to prove or disprove normalization. Create 12 teams with all the top hitters and all the worst pitchers. Track the stats for individuals and teams each week and look for any trends. Whaddya think, Bernie?

My whole experiment started when in the 2002 game, I had Bonds at 64 HRs through 105 games, and he hit 6 HRs in his last 57 games to end up at 70. Then, in the playoffs, he hit 13 HRs in 9 games.

Regarding Frank's Bonds, unless he can show a specific point where the HR spigot turned off and stayed off, I still maintain this is not system regression, but performing to his card the last half of the season.

[macnole]

[quote:3dc0e19557="wjanssen"][quote:3dc0e19557="macnole"]In fact, about every one in 50 times (2%) your 10 flips will produce a 9-to-1 or 10-to-0 split between heads and tails[/quote:3dc0e19557]

Not sure that really is in fact.

I get 1 out of 256 (0.4%) for the 9 in a row case and 1 in 512 (or 0.2%) for the 10 in a rown case... assuming you don't care about first result, either heads or tails, just that the next 8-9 flips are also that original outcome[/quote:3dc0e19557]

oopps...yes the quick math made a .2% into 2%...
It was late (euro time) and this idea of disproving the null is tiresome!

[macnole]

Considering Treyomo's post, along with other threads on the amount of homeruns, is there a consensus expectation?

That is, do we want "realistic" stat reproduction or not? Don't think there is a way in ATG to have realistic results and not make changes to the cards (outside of low-cap/themes).

For instance, why is it bad Bonds reverted back (regardless how, forced or not) to his expected results?

I would guess most people here would choose unrealistic stats. This is an honest question, no sarcasm at all if it seems that way.

Another one--what stats are being "normalized"? There is never talk of pitchers...or fielders, etc. Obviously it cannot be every stat because it would be impossible to facilitate with that many outcome controls.

So are HRs a "base" stat that's normalized? BA, OBA, errors incl catcher throwing errors, what about pitcher strikeouts, walks, HR allowed, etc.

[macnole]

BTW--I like Tryomo's idea. Could also do the same for the best pitchers against scrubs. Try to determine what stats are (if any) controls.