Normalization MORE INFO - NEED CHARLIE
by Roosky » Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:36 am
Here are my thoughts. In real major league baseball the very worst teams win at least on average 35% of their games and for one of them to sweep one of the best teams in a series is really not very shocking at all. Also if you have spent much time rolling the dice in your life you will know that you can have some crazy rolls and get on streaks. Also this is obviously a game of statistical chance that evens out over time, even though seasons can still vary from one to the other. The way I look at things is that if I have Babe Ruth underperform greatly for the first 65 games of a season I know that the stats will balance out eventually by him having a hot streak. The same goes for a guy that is greatly overperforming. Remember you can flip a coin ten times and it be heads everytime and that is not very unusual, but if you flip it 100 times it moves a lot closer to 50/50 and the more you flip it the closer it gets. I currently have an 80 million team that is going to win 100 games and score 1500 plus runs. Normalization never kicked in on my scoring. To close I would like to point out that the more teams you have the more crazy stuff you are going to see. Nev, you have a bazillion teams you are bound to see all kinds of absurd stuff. See you in the finals hopefully in the previously mentioned league.
- Roosky
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by gkhd11a » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:59 pm
[quote:5b14004e7b="apolivka"]As usual, whenever this topic comes up, I trot out this team:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=80041
Started 59-3
Then reeled off 100 wins in a row to finish it off.
Yes it was a theme league, and all teams played to lose, except this one.
Seems like HAL was unable to normalize....[/quote:5b14004e7b]
Normalization from my understanding would have nothing to do with wins and losses directly but rather in the performances of the team. Typically shows as a reduction in runs scores. In looking at this league I see that team averaged 9.63 runs in the first 100 games and then 7.6 in the 35 games following game #100. Usually that dropoff is enough to lose a significant number of games in a real league. Since that team was already 7 runs better than every other team it only made it 5 runs better than every other team for 35 games. For the entirety of the last 62 games the offense dropped off by .8 runs per game, but the pattern from game 101 - 135 in scoring I have encountered frequently
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=80041
Started 59-3
Then reeled off 100 wins in a row to finish it off.
Yes it was a theme league, and all teams played to lose, except this one.
Seems like HAL was unable to normalize....[/quote:5b14004e7b]
Normalization from my understanding would have nothing to do with wins and losses directly but rather in the performances of the team. Typically shows as a reduction in runs scores. In looking at this league I see that team averaged 9.63 runs in the first 100 games and then 7.6 in the 35 games following game #100. Usually that dropoff is enough to lose a significant number of games in a real league. Since that team was already 7 runs better than every other team it only made it 5 runs better than every other team for 35 games. For the entirety of the last 62 games the offense dropped off by .8 runs per game, but the pattern from game 101 - 135 in scoring I have encountered frequently
- gkhd11a
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by PotKettleBlack » Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:57 am
[quote:125f0c596e="Roosky"]... Remember you can flip a coin ten times and it be heads everytime and that is not very unusual, but if you flip it 100 times it moves a lot closer to 50/50 and the more you flip it the closer it gets. ...[/quote:125f0c596e]
Whoa.
Whoa. Whoa.
Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.
Whoa, Nelly.
Our results after ten flips are 100% heads. So, technically, it will move closer to 50/50. But, our expectation is actually 55 heads to 45 tails.
Logic:
We already have 10 heads. These are determined.
We have 90 random events left. They are 50/50. .5*90 = 45. That is your average number of remaining heads and tails.
We do NOT expect a run of extra tails to make up for our early run of heads.
This is essentially the Monty Hall problem, only written with larger sample sizes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Which is why I feel like there is actual normalization in place, beyond reversion to the mean. Given that say Bonds has hit 74 HR through 100 games, we might expect some reversion to the mean. So, we'd expect him to hit his card the rest of the way. That's what, 20HR/108 PA on his card, some other version on pitchers?
Whoa.
Whoa. Whoa.
Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.
Whoa, Nelly.
Our results after ten flips are 100% heads. So, technically, it will move closer to 50/50. But, our expectation is actually 55 heads to 45 tails.
Logic:
We already have 10 heads. These are determined.
We have 90 random events left. They are 50/50. .5*90 = 45. That is your average number of remaining heads and tails.
We do NOT expect a run of extra tails to make up for our early run of heads.
This is essentially the Monty Hall problem, only written with larger sample sizes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Which is why I feel like there is actual normalization in place, beyond reversion to the mean. Given that say Bonds has hit 74 HR through 100 games, we might expect some reversion to the mean. So, we'd expect him to hit his card the rest of the way. That's what, 20HR/108 PA on his card, some other version on pitchers?
- PotKettleBlack
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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