Four Man vs Five Man pitching staffs

[bcp7]

Can one of our data base gurus inform us of the ratio of championships for these type staffs?

My current playoff dilemna: Pete Alexander v Eppa Rixey at Dunn in game 5 of the semi-finals.

You can often have your 3rd, 4th and 5th non* SPs in a 5 man stuff, put up equiv or better numbers to the 3rd and 4th *SPs for the same amount of money, which could help during the regular season by letting you use the money elsewhere. But if you get to a game 5, you are looking at your fifth starter vs the other team's ace more often than not.

[tkl33]

Brian, anyone who goes against Pete...* or not...is at a severe disadvantage. I usually like to have 1 or 2 * just for the playoffs.

I am giving my 1st pure 5-man a try in a 100M league though.

Treyomo or Maxie might have the info you are looking for.

[modmark46]

I don't have any hard data for you, just my own anectodal feelings. Adams and Reulbach (for example) are on a par with Alexander, card wise. Basically, a *SP will get 8 more starts, on average, than a non *SP will, over the course of a season. For the sake of comparisons, if you spent half of your money in an $80m cap league on your four starters, you could get Alexander, Brown, Pfiester and Mogridge for $40m on the nose. So, you could get the three best *SPs in the game, and a respectable #4 SP. With a 5 man staff, the top 4 non *SPs are Adams, Reulbach, Russo and Lanier. These four would cost you 35.47m, leaving you with enough for someone like R. Works, for example. This staff would cost you $40.02. In ability, the two staffs are very comparable, IMO. But, the 4 man staff would get 41 starts each out of Alexander and Pfiester or Brown, and 40 out of Pfiester/Brown and Mogridge. The 5 man staff would get 33 starts out of Adams & Reulbach, with 32 out of Russo, Lanier and Donovan. Those 8 extra starts Alexander and Pfiester/Brown would EACH get trump the cards of Adams and Reulbach, as does the 7 extra starts either Pfiester/Brown would get over Russo. Only advantage for the 5 man comes at the #4 SP of the non* staff, where Lanier, on paper, trumps Mogridge when they match up. A minor advantage at best. It's not the ability of the cards, but the extra starts for the *SPs, that give the 4 man staff the edge, when comparing pitchers of compatible ability. But obviously, people have won rings with 5 man staffs, and there are many excellent 5 man SPs (P. Dean being my personal favorite). Your point about the game 5 matchups in a semi playoff game is a big selling point of the 4 man staff, as well. If I have my CHOICE of *SPs, I'll go with the 4 man staff everytime. But sometimes, after an autodraft, the 5 man staff ends up being the best way to go. Just rambling here, I know. But it's always fun to discuss the pros & cons of this strategy. :)

[NEILKAHN]

I go with the 5 man rotations from time to time in order to play guys that I would not normally, but I think the hidden advantage of a 5 man rotation is that the high quality non asterisk starters can be drafted lower, so it gives you an advantage drafting your position players, because you can use all of your high picks on them, and deal with the starters later.

[The Last Druid]

I often use 7 man rotations. Usually 2 * that pitch every turn, and a bunch of filler guys that play based on if they are available to start and if the matchups are right. Seems to work pretty well. Real cheap too.

Here's an example from my most recent championship over the evil Frank Bailey. 8) The Babe Adams idea I purloined from OT a while back. Usually I have a guy like Dean or Coveleski in the two slot. The rest though is fairly typical of about 1/3 of my pitching staffs, although I usually come in under $25 M on those teams. Adams was an expensive luxury but turned out to be worth it. I also platooned at first and third with Gardner & Stock at 3rd and Knight & Blair at first to recoup some of the salary I squandered on pitching.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/team/team_other.html?user_id=87726

[sschu]

For certain parks and team types, 5 man rotations offer better/more choices IMHO. If you want a HR team at Polo, there are plenty of decent pitchers in the 3.5-4.5M range that are non * SPs. It is harder to get those guys for 4 man rotations (Dean, Hughson, Covo types)

Another advantage of 5 man rotations is you can use a Rommel and/or Speer or Clancy as your 5th SP and they get the 33 starts as opposed to 41 starts for the 4 man rotation.

If I am going to spend $10M on an SP, I want it to be a * SP, unless you try to work Adams in as an RP, 33 starts is just not enough for the $ IMHO. The Semis 5 game series is a serious drawback to 5 man rotations.

FWIIW, sschu

[bcp7]

Old Pete gave up 7 earned runs, but the Freighters bullpen blew the game. Yet another semi-finals loss.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/playoffs/boxscore.html?group_id=25771&g_id=982

[goffchile]

It seems like most players go with * staffs. In ATGI, there was really no reason not to, since there were so many * bargains. With the better pricing, there are a lot of good non-star pitchers. Below is a link to a five man championship squad of mine which was #3 in era for the league. The big advantage of the non-star staff is choice, since most players fight over the star pitchers, you can pretty much get who you want. I also, like Petrosion, have gone with what amounts to 7 man rotations, spot starting various pitchers in certain circumstances. That can be a pretty effective of overcoming the problem laid out by modmark, especially if you are in an extreme park or if there are alot of extreme parks in your division.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/playoffs/team_other.html?user_id=44953

Here is a six man rotation squad that won the division, but alas lost in the playoffs--#2 i Era with some unusual suspects.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/team/team_other.html?user_id=7044

[MICHAELTARBELL]

In a hitters park, i always go with at least a 7 man rotation, so I can create matchups with my cheapo starters.

But in a pitchers park, i always use a 4 man rotation....maximum starts for maximum dollars! :wink:

[JEFFREYSCHNAKENBERG]

I make pitching decisions now purely mathematically, using the DiamondDope data (the BR numbers) and the number of starts that pitcher would make over the course of a season. For instance, Hubbell in Griffith '24 vs LHH is rated at -14.93 runs. Multiply this x 40 starts = -597.20 runs. Babe Adams vs LHH is rated at -19.22 x 33 starts = -634.26 BR. Thus over the course of a season Babe Adams for less money contributes more pitching value than Carl Hubbell vs left handers.

Using a spreadsheet, I compute the total number of BR a given pitching combination will provide me over a full season. One could conceivably make these formulas pretty complicated, factoring how many starts a pitcher will make in particular parks, and what the likely breakdown will be in lefty/righty match ups. But I'm not that hard core. I usually run two sets of L/R numbers per rotation, one for my homepark and one for an extreme used elsewhere in the league. For instance, if I'm playing in Griffith, my numbers are pretty equally valid if I'm playing a team in Forbes or Dodger '65, but would not for Baker.

I've thus far concluded that the best combo is a stud * pitcher to help you in the playoff and the rest being combinations of non* starters. For instance, I'll regularly take Loes for use in pitcher parks and Faber for hitters parks.

Any thoughts on my approach?