by BobBoone » Wed Aug 10, 2011 2:00 pm
[quote:ef32de39ec="DeanTSC"]If you're referring to the number(s) after the lead chance -- e.g., the "12" in *5-6, 12 (15-9) -- that represents an "automatic caught stealing", which is slightly different than a "pickoff". You go for the lead, you roll 2d6, it comes up (in this case) 12, the guy is caught stealing, end of story.
Pickoffs, on the other hand, work in the following way. On any steal attempt, there is a 5% chance of a potential pickoff. The chance that the pickoff will occur depends on the baserunner's second stealing number. To be safe, he has to roll that number or less on d20. So in this case, there would be a 55% chance that the runner would be picked off.[/quote:ef32de39ec]
First of all I very much appreciate you taking the time to respond to this.
I am afraid that I am still a little confused however. The 5% likelyhood of a pickoff is based on a runners 2nd number, so does this mean that the baserunner tried to steal after failing to roll his "to go" numbers, in this case a 5 or a 6? And so the 5% happens when failing, so therefore a 2nd 1-20 roll takes place after the failure the establish a good lead. If I am correct in this, does rolling now a 1-9 in our example get one safely back to first, and a 10-20 result in a pickoff?