Reggie or Shamsky in RF?

[Outta Leftfield]

I've got a team in a 80M DH league that starts Monday, and I'm trying to decide who to play in RF vs RHP.

Art Shamsky (platooning vs RHP) is a 4(+1)e3 in RF, while Reggie Jackson's 5.38M card is 4(-2)e13. My guess is that playing Shamsky in RF and DHing Reggie might be the better choice. Seems to me that even in RF, the saving of 10 errors might be more important than Shamsky's penalty in arm strength.

But what do you think? And has anyone found a way of measuring this--that is the value of arm strength vs range or errors?

Here's the team, in case you want a look:

[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=359465[/url]

[bontomn]

DH Reggie. Keep the errors on the bench.

[Outta Leftfield]

[quote:97aefeaae5="bontomn"]DH Reggie. Keep the errors on the bench.[/quote:97aefeaae5]

Sounds good. Will do.

I think this team is gonna [i:97aefeaae5]hit[/i:97aefeaae5]! Whether the fielding and pitching will hold up is another question.

[The Last Druid]

Are you playing in a theme league that requires you to start a 4 in rf? If not, why would you want to?

[Outta Leftfield]

[quote:6b945acb9d="Petrosian"]Are you playing in a theme league that requires you to start a 4 in rf? If not, why would you want to?[/quote:6b945acb9d]

In a lefty HR park, in an 80M league, Reggie's 5.38M card provides an awful lot of bang for the buck. I think his offense, for the money, can be worth the defensive compromise. I've got Reggie playing RF on two current 80M teams which are at present a combined 96-51 (.653 w/l), so I guess it can work, though my luck with these teams may of course change before the season ends.

The team I mentioned in my first post is Cougars13 in the "Verlander's Year" league, which we're both in, and which is starting tonight, so we can both keep an eye on how Reggie performs. But this time Shamsky will be playing RF vs RHP and Shano Collins vs LHP. :)

Good luck to your team, which looks formidable. I'm definitely going to have trouble in your park!

Outta Leftfield

[The Last Druid]

The 5.38 M Reggie card in League '34 is ranked 168 by value among [b:82881a2e3e]rightfielders.[/b:82881a2e3e] Even as a dh there are 90 players who are better values [b:82881a2e3e]among rightfielders[/b:82881a2e3e] in league '34. Just an FYI.

[ShakeyBoomer]

Petro - can you please tell me where you are getting those values from? Thanks in advance.

[Outta Leftfield]

[quote:6af8cf5dfc="ShakeyBoomer"]Petro - can you please tell me where you are getting those values from? Thanks in advance.[/quote:6af8cf5dfc]

I'd be curious to see those values as well. Using Dean Carrano's NERP method in his essay "Offense vs Defense in Strat-O-Matic," I've just run some comparisons between Reggie's 5.36M card and several prominent LH hitting RFs. I'm basing these tests on Penmar, where I'm playing Reggie, but that's a closely equivalent park to League '34, so the values should not vary by much.

I find Reggie to have overall performance advantages (using NERP values of Offense + Defense ) over such LHB RF's as Ichiro (7.44), Ichiro (7.04), Keller (6.63), Crawford (6.48), Gwynn (6.46), Dolin (6.38), Youngs (6.09), and Oliva (5.80), while in each case costing significantly less.

To give an example, Gwynn's 6.46M card rates him rf 1(+1)e4, which gives him a significant 9.0 NERP defensive advantage over Reggie's rf 4(-2)e13. Gwynn's arm is a bit worse, but we'll let that go. Reggie's offensive NERP's are much better however: 34.16 vs LHP and 33.75 vs RHP to Gwynn's 16.83 (LHP) and 23.04 (RHP). Add Gwynn's defensive NERP of 9.0 to his offensive NERP and one gets a net 25.83 / 32.04 for Gwynn vs 34.16 / 33.75 for Reggie. Reggie's net value is a little higher vs RHP and very significantly higher vs LHP. Plus Reggie costs 1.1M less. That makes me think Reggie's 5.36M card is a better value than Gwynn's 6.46 card.

Reggie is about even in net NERP with Gwynn's 8.44M card and Klein's 7.48M but costs 2 or 3M+ less.

Reggie has small net NERP deficits against Waner (9.85), Waner (7.85), Ott (7.62), and Callison (6.60) but, again, costs significantly less.

Against RHB, it's no contest. Reggie's net NERP value are almost invariably higher than RHB's costing an additional 2 or 3M, plus he's cheaper.

Now I may be approaching this all wrong. For example, Carrano's methodology might be flawed, though to me his reasoning seems sound. But using the Carrano methodology, and based on the spot-checking I've done to date, Reggie does look to me like a good value player in the context of a 80M league in a lefty power park.

Just my two cents. :)

[The Last Druid]

Joe the Jet's ratings for ATG 6 in League '34. Value is defined as overall rating / player cost. The player ratings take into account BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, clutch, injuries, stolen bases, baserunning, defensive range, errors etc.

They are not free however and are proprietary.

Sort of a rich man's diamond dope.

I'd use either Reggie as a dh, preferably the cheapest one.

Gwynn is considered a good value by Jet's ratings but I personally have no desire to use the 6M Gwynn. I just don't have a lot of faith in rfer's with +1 arms. I like ERP type ratings in general as all I care about are runs created and prevented. That's why, unlike Don, I prefer Griffey (1994) to either Snider card regardless of what the ratings say. Just check out the Diamond Dope actuals for rbi's (before they go away forever). And Griffey is better defensively too.

[Outta Leftfield]

Well, it's all interesting, and we're agreed that the key issue is runs created and runs prevented. With Reggie's 5.36 card, the question is whether his excellent runs created for the money is going to gain or lose vs the number of runs his weak fielding is going to give up.

I've never used Gwynn but the card of his that looks like the best value to me is his 7.68M. He's only a 2 range but can really hit (much better than the 8.44 or 6M card).

I like Griffey's 1994 card too, but I like Turkey Stearnes even better. A key thing for me in a lefty park is to find LHB's who can hit LHP's, and Turkey does that exceptionally well. That's one reason I like Reggie's 5.36M--he is very balanced in that year, hitting LHP almost as well as RHP.

So a lot of it has to do with how one is trying to put together a team. My sense is that list of ratings can't include factors like the other parks in your division and league, the balance of RHP / LHP in a given division and league, etc. That's where performing an inspection of individual performance in the league context might pay dividends.

:wink: