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wild pitche(r)s and question

PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 2:41 pm
by hotcorner4444
Some of you have seen this, but I thought it would
be worth sharing with you all.


SUBSTITUTE P - Gene Brabender
0 12 E.Combs 6-4 Walk 2-3 1-2 b-1 F9
0 123 L.Mazzilli Wild Pitch 3-H 2-3 1-2 F9
0 23 L.Mazzilli Wild Pitch 3-H 2-3 F9
0 3 L.Mazzilli Wild Pitch 3-H F9
0 L.Mazzilli 1-9 Strike Out b-0 F9
1 P.Guerrero 3-10 Single (CF)b-1 bpSI 1-12 F9
1 1 A.Belle Wild Pitch 1-2 F9
SUBSTITUTE P - Pete Richert

I realize that Brabender is a WP 20, but I think
this is a bit of an extreme AB for Mazzilli,
considering that after going 3-0 on wild pitches
he managed to strike out. Unfortunately, this was
only part of a very bad inning for me.


BTW: Mazzilli is not credited with RBIs because he did
not actually cause them to score.

My question is, what is the mechanism that determines a wild pitch?

PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 2:59 pm
by emart
I can't answer your question, but I've been seeing some unusual wild pitch results myself in the past few weeks. On more than one occasion I've seen back-to-back wild pitches, or a WP and a balk back-to-back. Seems highly suspicious to me.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 3:14 pm
by andycummings65
I think you ended up with the 2000 Rick Ankiel card by mistake

PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 3:54 pm
by jfreeman
If I understand the rules correctly, prior to every pitch (with a runner on base), a 20-sided die is rolled. If it's a 1 or 2, then there's a chance for either a balk (#1) or wild pitch/passed ball (#2). If #2 appears, a 6-sided die is rolled to determine if it's a wild pitch (1-3)or passed ball (4-6). Once determined, the 20-sided die is re-rolled to determine if the wp takes place. Since your pitcher has a wp =20, then every time the 20-sided comes up a 2 (1-3), then it's an automatic wild pitch (if your pitcher had 1 wild pitch, for instance, then you'd only have a wild pitch if you rolled first a 2 (on the 20-sided), then a 1-3 on a 6-sided, and then a 1 on the 20-sided).

Your results indicate that a 2 was rolled on a 20-sided 3x in a row and, each time it was rolled, a 6-sided die roll resulted in a 1-3. In the case of that pitcher, it is an automatic wp.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 8:49 pm
by hotcorner4444
Thanks for the info on that. -- It's been so long since I played the board game that I have totally lost track of such dice roll things. While the odds are amazingly against such things happening -- there it is.

At least Rick Ankiel spread his 5 WP in an inning out over 4 different batters.

PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 7:56 pm
by Mean Dean
Rolling a 1 on the 20-sided die is always a wild pitch chance; rolling a 2 is the one that is split between a 50% chance of a balk and a 50% chance of a passed ball. So the odds of three straight wild pitches would be twice what [b:5db265a779]Brooklyn Bombers[/b:5db265a779] described, namely, 1 in 8,000.

(CATCH-X can also result in a WP, but I assume that would be marked as such in the recap. Not sure, though?)

PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:08 pm
by rburgh
I agree with Dean on all counts.

1. The chance of 3 straight WP with an * baserunner on base is 1 in 8000.

2. It's possible to get a WP off the catcher X-chart. When that happens, the game recap should tell you.

3. The game checks for a possible WP/PB/Bk once for every baserunner that will attempt to steal when held; usually those with an * rating.

If the baserunner did not get a good lead, and does not advance a base as a result of the efforts of the current batter, then there will be no further checks for a WP/PB/Bk.

This SB simulation is by far the best of the games that I know of, but it's far from perfect.

As to the 1 in 8000 event actually happening, it was bound to happen sooner or later. There are 22 pitchers with a WP-20 rating, including quality cards such as Trevor Hoffman, the lesser Bruce Sutter card, Norm Charlton, Kenny Rogers, the 5-day starter reliever card for Len Barker, tough lefty starter-reliever Frank Bertaina, Sparky Lyle's Red Sox card, and the little John Franco card.

Hot corner, it was just your turn to be hit by the Strat freak event curse.

PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:34 pm
by hotcorner4444
Thanks for all the input on the math. The simple retired English teacher here only figures out such things as spelling and punctuation.

Now if I could only get the New York State lottery to get on board with a freak occurrence on my behalf ...