Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

Along with OBP and run efficiency and maybe runs/HR (for slugger teams), it seems percent earned/unearned runs is an important number.

I look for about 92% earned runs, if less, then maybe I have a problem.

Run efficiency needs to be +94%, over 100% on jackrabbit teams.

Curious on others perspectives?

sschu

Obvious Answer for Dummies: zero percent.

As long as you win by scoring more runs than you give up, it probably doesn't matter whether the runs are earned or not.

If you are allowing a high number of unearned runs but you're scoring more than enough runs to compensate for that, is it a serious problem?

But I'd be concerned if you paid a premium in salary for hitters that have low error ratings and then they failed to deliver as expected. Unearned runs would probably tip the balance in your opponents favor, and you'd have a losing record.

But don't be surprised if you run the same roster out again in a different league, and the same exact team allows only a handful of unearned runs, and you wind up with 95 wins. You never know.

[quote:22e9d5348f="nexrad"]As long as you win by scoring more runs than you give up, it probably doesn't matter whether the runs are earned or not.
[/quote:22e9d5348f]

I agree, but if your team is underperforming, its helpful to look for
indicators that separate bad strategy from bad luck. And one of
the easiest places to look for bad luck is errors and unearned runs
because the numbers are easy to find. Also, errors can and do
vary from season to season a great deal.

From a practical stand point, if a team starts slow, do you react
or do you stand pat? Its best to act if you can identify a weakness,
its best to stand pat if you identify bad luck. And if you can't do
either, wait it out, read the threads, etc., etc.

Teams with decent gloves generally give up 5-10% unearned runs
over the course of a season. Its rare to see a team with under 5%
unearned runs and possible to see the same defenders get twice
that in another season. Above 10% is bad luck, or you have a lot
of error ratings for your defender (if the sum of your error rating
of your defenders is above 120, then you are in danger of giving
up higher earned runs,... OF errors are generally worse than IF
errors).

A variation on this to look at the unearned runs/error the team
allows. If its around 0.5-0.75 unearned runs/error is a "good"
range to be in ("good" meaning not unlucky). In some cases,
especially early in the season, teams can be giving up 1 or
more unearned/error. Thats just bad luck.

Again, the point of looking at this stat is to see if a luck
factor outside your control is causing you problems. Don't beat
yourself up if you are having an unlucky streak.

[quote="River Field View"][quote:2ef3bd29fa="nexrad"]As long as you win by scoring more runs than you give up, it probably doesn't matter whether the runs are earned or not.
[/quote:2ef3bd29fa]

The main reason pure bomber teams fail is for lack of good defense, it is unusual to see (not impossible BTW) a slugger team with without also good range at most positions. Kiner and Hack Wilson are great examples, they are tempting to play in the field as they provide a lot of OPS/$$, but the downside risk usually results in losing seasons.

sschu

[quote="sschuThe main reason pure bomber teams fail is for lack of good defense, it is unusual to see (not impossible BTW) a slugger team with without also good range at most positions. Kiner and Hack Wilson are great examples, they are tempting to play in the field as they provide a lot of OPS/$$, but the downside risk usually results in losing seasons.

sschu[/quote]

But Prof. Sschu, you can't always let wins and losses get in the way
of having fun seasons !!!

On one of my recent teams I have Ott in CF and GATES BROWN
in LF (Ortiz is DH, can't get around that). The team is outscoring
every team except one -- the team that lines up and plays them
each evening.

I guess I can relegate Gates... lesson learned.

For what it is worth, Kiner has a .495 win% thru 378 uses, all parks, all caps.
Hack Wilson has .502 win% thru 342 uses, all parks, all caps.

I've always looked more at runs allowed vs. runs scored as the key stat.
The more $ put into hitting, the greater you want that gap.
About a year ago, I was in a league with Munich Man. His team committed
208 errors which led to 179 unearned runs.
But he outscored his opponents by 250 runs and won 100 games.

[quote:e19368c65f="kab105"]For what it is worth, Kiner has a .495 win% thru 378 uses, all parks, all caps.
Hack Wilson has .502 win% thru 342 uses, all parks, all caps.[/quote:e19368c65f]

Where did you find these stats?

Greg

[quote:bab4f26bfb]For what it is worth, Kiner has a .495 win% thru 378 uses, all parks, all caps.
Hack Wilson has .502 win% thru 342 uses, all parks, all caps.[/quote:bab4f26bfb]
Diamonddope is an easy source for these numbers. Though these numbers do not differentiate between Kiner/Wilson as DH and and thier winning % in no DH leagues where they would be forced to play in field.

I would suspect if you could get that breakdown the winning % for both is higher in DH leagues and lower in no-dh leagues where their defense comes in to play.

[quote:9949d02eb4="danielz"]I've always looked more at runs allowed vs. runs scored as the key stat.
The more $ put into hitting, the greater you want that gap.
About a year ago, I was in a league with Munich Man. His team committed
208 errors which led to 179 unearned runs.
But he outscored his opponents by 250 runs and won 100 games.[/quote:9949d02eb4]

That was this team-- http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=316298&stats=sim They set the runs scored record with 1620 and OBP with .440.

They also demolished the errors record (208) and came close to the HR allowed record (308).