How long is long enough
Posted:
Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:30 amby willsghoul
I had E. Alponzo 6.7 mil. card , in Tiger "75" i figured some solid numbers , after 121AB was hitting at a staggering .197 clip .274OB .322SLG Ugh ! i ended up dropping him for Larry Doyle 3.9 mil. card , i'm new but did i misread this card? or just bad luck with the dice?
Posted:
Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:46 pmby PotKettleBlack
121 ABs is, on average, 60 PAs from his card. We'd expect anywhere from... eh, back of napkin, 45-75 rolls from his card, given the randomness of strat.
That feels early to me, especially on the lower end of rolls from his card.
That leaves the question of when I'd actually dump someone for non-performance:
I guess I'd like, I dunno, 200 PA.
The problem is that your standard deviation drops about 1:10, so it takes 100 rolls to decrease it by 10%. And the 50% rolls on pitchers' cards means that it's more like 1%:20 rolls. Yeah, no one knows the true performance of anything in this game until a few seasons have rolled.