by stevep107 » Sat Apr 05, 2008 6:30 pm
Uncle,
Actually, that analysis doesn't look too bad right now. Before the season started, I thought that Cristano had the best SPs and he is currently third in team ERA. I thought Best Damn had the second best SPs and he is first overall in team ERA. I predicted that I had the third best SPs and I am fifth overall in team ERA. Certainly not a bad prediction. Note that my analysis did not take into account the team's home ballpark.
I am guessing that you are referring to my prediction that you would have the worst SPs and yet you currently have the second best team ERA.
Firstly, subsequent to my initial analysis, you made some changes to your SPs, getting rid of Nolasco and Lester and acquiring Hernandez. Hernandez is terrible, but he is better than those other two jokers. This move alone improved your SPs to 10th place from 12th.
Secondly, the analysis didn't include RPs. You've got a couple of high priced relievers which has helped your team ERA. Their ERAs are also unsustainably low at the moment. This will change.
Thirdly, Johnson, Martinez and Hill have been lucky. They currently have ERAs of 2.75, 2.43 and 2.87. Part of the reason for that is because you are in Kauffman but I would be amazed if any of these guys had ERAs below 3.0 at the end of the season. I guess we'll see.
Being firmly in last place, I'm not really in a position to be judging who has the best team, etc. :)
In retrospect, I think my team has been unlucky to date and will not end up in last place. Having said that, it will take a miracle for me to make the playoffs.
I'm hoping that strato is similar to golf...once you stop caring about the game, it begins to improve... :)
Regards,
Steve