Let's get the Champions League Off the Ground-check in here
by MARCPELLETIER » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:19 pm
I appreciate the respectful comment. My response, for the love of strat discussions:
1) For two reasons.
First, I expected before the draft an astounishing 38%-40% of lefty pitching. (I know you are skeptical about my future foresight, but riggo can back me on this one). Last time I checked, we stood at 45% of lefty pitching, but I expect to see this go down a bit. Take your grid, replace 33% (or whatever value you have) with 40%, and you should have Rolen as a solid pick, to say the least (in my grid, going from memory, only Ginter, Chipper, and perhaps Glaus stood as equal value for $$ spent).
Second, by picking Rolen, I get myself free of underspending problems, and so, for the rest of my draft, I can pick any player I want. Don't forget that I play in Kaufmann, so I can't do what you will probably do, that is, have a lot of floating money, turn my back, and spend heavily on relief. I can't do this, because outspending on relief in a little park is useless. From my estimation, I expect 320 innings from Santana. From earlier experiences in low hitting stadiums, I expect 6.4 innings from my cheap starters, and 6.7 innings from my #2 (who I have not picked up yet). In total, that makes 1104 innings. A season has about 1450 innings. So I will need 350 innings out of my relief. If I give 140 innings to Foulke, I have 210 innings left to redistribute, half of which will probably be in losing causes. So if I don't pick up Rolen, I have no other choices but pick up some of the most expensive players--many of them not being bargains---and make sure I spend my 80M. By picking Rolen, however, I have full freedom to get all the cheap bargains I love so much, and who fit my park so well: Greinke, O.Perez, Everett, Burke...
2) I don't agree with your assessment of Walker. With Kearns as a replacement, I have Walker worth 1.2M more than his price tag. Of course, Kearns costs 0.93M instead of 0.5M, but that still leaves in the +0.8. Also, Walker is the best lead-off vs lhp, a strong quality when you expect 40% of lefty pitching. Sure I would have loved to grab Wagner, but I believe I prefer Walker+Foulke than any other option that include Wagner without Walker, except perhaps Wagner-Ford.
So it comes down to this: had I chosen Wagner, would Walker have been available in round 4? I don't know, but I knew very well that I could grab Foulke easily. So I decided to go safe.
As for your other option, that is to go with a platoon, well, I hold it that you are the player to beat in this league, as your first place respectfully commands. And I believe that the best way to beat your pitching strategy consisting of heavy lefty relief with either rhp or reverse lhp starters is to avoid platoons and consolidate on E/reverse lefty hitting. Walker fits perfectly fits this type of hitting. (unfortunately, among my starters, only Patterson also fits the definition of a reverse lefty hitter, which explains why I drafted Patterson. But I would definitely love to grab another reverse lefty hitter). Overall, I decided to go with 9 straight players. That explains why I don't plan to go with a single platoon this season, although I usually love it.
3) in my ratings, foulke comes very close to wagner in terms of value of $$. I already admitted that I could have perhaps waited for him, but I consider as a solid second to Wagner. But as I said, in the end, I don't think it would have changed my team. I would have probably taken Snow in round 4, Everett in round 5, and then Foulke. With the trade, I ended up with this team.
4) I know you had very bad experiences with Greinke earlier in the tour, but he's the only under 2M I've seen with a 20-win season. In my stadium, he's simply the best value in the set. And I wanted to make an eye pop-up stand in front of all of you. Considering that some 2M pitchers were picked up as early as the 7th round, I don't think my 6th round was that off mark, especially not considering out bad I wanted him.
With retrospect, the only questionable moves I have with my current draft are:
-should I have taken my chances with Wagner in round 3 and Walker in round 4?
--given the number of lefty pitchers, should I have picked up 2b Giles? The reason why I avoided Giles is that, after using him in 2/3 seasons, I found out that he was too weak vs rhp to be worth 4.88M. So I had already decided at the beginning of the draft to avoid him, unless I had no other option. With retrospect, I would have loved to see him again in my team.
So with only two questionable calls, I like my record for this draft.
Do I think I have best team for the season? No.
As I repeatedly said earlier this year, we have decided to crown the owner who win the finals in this very last season, not the one with the most wins during the season.
My plan is not to finish with the most wins. I doubt I will win more than 90 wins, given the number of injuries in my team.
My plan is rather to finish among the top 4. If I can do this, and moreover, if I can insure my playoff spot with a couple of games in hand and give a fresh rest to all my injury-prone players, then I honestly, not just with the heart, but with the brain, that I will have the best shot to win the finals. With Santana on the mound for game 1 and game 5, and with Greinke and possibly Perez back at home, I believe I have the best team for the first round, except perhaps UnkleNY's team lead by the BigUnit. If I can stay healthy enough for the most of the finals, then I truely believe I will have a good shot in beating anybody.
re. kaviksdad: he failed to grab Maddux. His reign over me is thus over :D
1) For two reasons.
First, I expected before the draft an astounishing 38%-40% of lefty pitching. (I know you are skeptical about my future foresight, but riggo can back me on this one). Last time I checked, we stood at 45% of lefty pitching, but I expect to see this go down a bit. Take your grid, replace 33% (or whatever value you have) with 40%, and you should have Rolen as a solid pick, to say the least (in my grid, going from memory, only Ginter, Chipper, and perhaps Glaus stood as equal value for $$ spent).
Second, by picking Rolen, I get myself free of underspending problems, and so, for the rest of my draft, I can pick any player I want. Don't forget that I play in Kaufmann, so I can't do what you will probably do, that is, have a lot of floating money, turn my back, and spend heavily on relief. I can't do this, because outspending on relief in a little park is useless. From my estimation, I expect 320 innings from Santana. From earlier experiences in low hitting stadiums, I expect 6.4 innings from my cheap starters, and 6.7 innings from my #2 (who I have not picked up yet). In total, that makes 1104 innings. A season has about 1450 innings. So I will need 350 innings out of my relief. If I give 140 innings to Foulke, I have 210 innings left to redistribute, half of which will probably be in losing causes. So if I don't pick up Rolen, I have no other choices but pick up some of the most expensive players--many of them not being bargains---and make sure I spend my 80M. By picking Rolen, however, I have full freedom to get all the cheap bargains I love so much, and who fit my park so well: Greinke, O.Perez, Everett, Burke...
2) I don't agree with your assessment of Walker. With Kearns as a replacement, I have Walker worth 1.2M more than his price tag. Of course, Kearns costs 0.93M instead of 0.5M, but that still leaves in the +0.8. Also, Walker is the best lead-off vs lhp, a strong quality when you expect 40% of lefty pitching. Sure I would have loved to grab Wagner, but I believe I prefer Walker+Foulke than any other option that include Wagner without Walker, except perhaps Wagner-Ford.
So it comes down to this: had I chosen Wagner, would Walker have been available in round 4? I don't know, but I knew very well that I could grab Foulke easily. So I decided to go safe.
As for your other option, that is to go with a platoon, well, I hold it that you are the player to beat in this league, as your first place respectfully commands. And I believe that the best way to beat your pitching strategy consisting of heavy lefty relief with either rhp or reverse lhp starters is to avoid platoons and consolidate on E/reverse lefty hitting. Walker fits perfectly fits this type of hitting. (unfortunately, among my starters, only Patterson also fits the definition of a reverse lefty hitter, which explains why I drafted Patterson. But I would definitely love to grab another reverse lefty hitter). Overall, I decided to go with 9 straight players. That explains why I don't plan to go with a single platoon this season, although I usually love it.
3) in my ratings, foulke comes very close to wagner in terms of value of $$. I already admitted that I could have perhaps waited for him, but I consider as a solid second to Wagner. But as I said, in the end, I don't think it would have changed my team. I would have probably taken Snow in round 4, Everett in round 5, and then Foulke. With the trade, I ended up with this team.
4) I know you had very bad experiences with Greinke earlier in the tour, but he's the only under 2M I've seen with a 20-win season. In my stadium, he's simply the best value in the set. And I wanted to make an eye pop-up stand in front of all of you. Considering that some 2M pitchers were picked up as early as the 7th round, I don't think my 6th round was that off mark, especially not considering out bad I wanted him.
With retrospect, the only questionable moves I have with my current draft are:
-should I have taken my chances with Wagner in round 3 and Walker in round 4?
--given the number of lefty pitchers, should I have picked up 2b Giles? The reason why I avoided Giles is that, after using him in 2/3 seasons, I found out that he was too weak vs rhp to be worth 4.88M. So I had already decided at the beginning of the draft to avoid him, unless I had no other option. With retrospect, I would have loved to see him again in my team.
So with only two questionable calls, I like my record for this draft.
Do I think I have best team for the season? No.
As I repeatedly said earlier this year, we have decided to crown the owner who win the finals in this very last season, not the one with the most wins during the season.
My plan is not to finish with the most wins. I doubt I will win more than 90 wins, given the number of injuries in my team.
My plan is rather to finish among the top 4. If I can do this, and moreover, if I can insure my playoff spot with a couple of games in hand and give a fresh rest to all my injury-prone players, then I honestly, not just with the heart, but with the brain, that I will have the best shot to win the finals. With Santana on the mound for game 1 and game 5, and with Greinke and possibly Perez back at home, I believe I have the best team for the first round, except perhaps UnkleNY's team lead by the BigUnit. If I can stay healthy enough for the most of the finals, then I truely believe I will have a good shot in beating anybody.
re. kaviksdad: he failed to grab Maddux. His reign over me is thus over :D
- MARCPELLETIER
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Coffeeholic » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:48 pm
That's it then!
Guess the rest of us better just concede now and save our money for another league.
Guess the rest of us better just concede now and save our money for another league.
- Coffeeholic
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by ERICTAYLOR 2 » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:50 pm
[quote:ff4ad899f2]ET-
im sure a little more analysis would help that 490 winning pct
i mean, it couldnt hurt[/quote:ff4ad899f2]
Maybe I would have won all 13 finals series instead of 12 out of 13
im sure a little more analysis would help that 490 winning pct
i mean, it couldnt hurt[/quote:ff4ad899f2]
Maybe I would have won all 13 finals series instead of 12 out of 13
- ERICTAYLOR 2
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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