Champs League is Full - Good Luck Fellas!
by MARCPELLETIER » Fri Feb 23, 2007 8:30 pm
So a third of a season has been played.
So far, with regards to my predictions, the biggest error I made was predicting the West as the strongest division, yikes!!! But I can see where I made mistakes. In the case of kavisdad, I think I strongly overestimate the strength of Santana and Davis in this league which has either teams with lots of left-handed hitters, or teams with some right-handed bashers. In short, many left-handed pitchers are getting hammered in this league, particularly when playing the teams in the Central, and kaviksdad and cminton are the teams mostly hurt by this trend. The failures of Santana and Davis put a lot of stress on kaviksdad's bullpen, which was too thin of middle relievers, increasing the effect. And the weak hitters on his offensive line-up really hurt the effectiveness of the team.
In my case, I think I overestimated Frank Thomas's card for my stadium, his on-base is really struggling. Pitching-wise, I honestly believe I had bad rolls, but I also underestimate that the league would have better slugging than "regular" "non-tour leagues", which would have a greater impact on my pitching staff. Pedro has outstanding numbers, except for homeruns allowed and era. Cordero has been awful. I am confident that my team will finish over 85 wins. Will that be sufficient to make the playoffs? We'll see.
Spicki lost a lot of close games. We'll see if this is pure bad chance, or if there is a trend based on the team's composition. I thought he and I could both make the playoffs. Apparantly, only one of us will.
In the East and the Central, I have to say that 7 out of 8 teams are playing pretty much as I expected them to play, take or give a few wins here and there. The only exception is of course stevep's team.
First of all, let me say that stevep coaches very well his team. He is not afraid to make adjustments based on the teams he faces, and usually these moves pay off. Secondly, I should stress that, even if this team plays .500 the rest of the way, as I saw this team roughly performing before the season started, this team will still end up with 87 wins. If it continues on the same trend, it will win 99 games. Count me in the stubborn, but I see 87 wins as more probable than 99 wins. That said, consideing that stevep coaches his team very well, and that he'll have good divisional match-ups, I say his team is heading towards 90 wins, which should be sufficient to grant a playoff spot.
As for the seven other teams in the East and Central, what you see right now is, in my opinion, a very good estimate of how teams will end up. I see maligned in the 90-ish wins, fighting with stevep for first place, with Bombers giving a good run slightly behind, and odieworks a step back.
In the Central, qksilver unability to win homegames will prove to be too costly. Mcsoupy and cummings should fight the rest of the way for both the division lead and the wild-card.
So far, with regards to my predictions, the biggest error I made was predicting the West as the strongest division, yikes!!! But I can see where I made mistakes. In the case of kavisdad, I think I strongly overestimate the strength of Santana and Davis in this league which has either teams with lots of left-handed hitters, or teams with some right-handed bashers. In short, many left-handed pitchers are getting hammered in this league, particularly when playing the teams in the Central, and kaviksdad and cminton are the teams mostly hurt by this trend. The failures of Santana and Davis put a lot of stress on kaviksdad's bullpen, which was too thin of middle relievers, increasing the effect. And the weak hitters on his offensive line-up really hurt the effectiveness of the team.
In my case, I think I overestimated Frank Thomas's card for my stadium, his on-base is really struggling. Pitching-wise, I honestly believe I had bad rolls, but I also underestimate that the league would have better slugging than "regular" "non-tour leagues", which would have a greater impact on my pitching staff. Pedro has outstanding numbers, except for homeruns allowed and era. Cordero has been awful. I am confident that my team will finish over 85 wins. Will that be sufficient to make the playoffs? We'll see.
Spicki lost a lot of close games. We'll see if this is pure bad chance, or if there is a trend based on the team's composition. I thought he and I could both make the playoffs. Apparantly, only one of us will.
In the East and the Central, I have to say that 7 out of 8 teams are playing pretty much as I expected them to play, take or give a few wins here and there. The only exception is of course stevep's team.
First of all, let me say that stevep coaches very well his team. He is not afraid to make adjustments based on the teams he faces, and usually these moves pay off. Secondly, I should stress that, even if this team plays .500 the rest of the way, as I saw this team roughly performing before the season started, this team will still end up with 87 wins. If it continues on the same trend, it will win 99 games. Count me in the stubborn, but I see 87 wins as more probable than 99 wins. That said, consideing that stevep coaches his team very well, and that he'll have good divisional match-ups, I say his team is heading towards 90 wins, which should be sufficient to grant a playoff spot.
As for the seven other teams in the East and Central, what you see right now is, in my opinion, a very good estimate of how teams will end up. I see maligned in the 90-ish wins, fighting with stevep for first place, with Bombers giving a good run slightly behind, and odieworks a step back.
In the Central, qksilver unability to win homegames will prove to be too costly. Mcsoupy and cummings should fight the rest of the way for both the division lead and the wild-card.
- MARCPELLETIER
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by spicki17 » Sat Feb 24, 2007 2:45 am
i guess the only comment i have is how do i have the best relievers in the set and the best run differential, but a record under 500? im just absolutely blown away. i guess ill just chalk this up to another strato misfortunate and count myself out the rest of the way.
just for the record, per my calculations i should be at like 38-19, not 28-29, but i guess thats just me being off again.
just for the record, per my calculations i should be at like 38-19, not 28-29, but i guess thats just me being off again.
- spicki17
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by MARCPELLETIER » Sat Feb 24, 2007 4:37 am
[quote:516a2dfbff]
just for the record, per my calculations i should be at like 38-19, not 28-29, but i guess thats just me being off again.[/quote:516a2dfbff]
Just curious, how can you come up with this number?
Teams with powerful line-ups and supported by a strong bullpen often have a winning record below expectations from the pythagorian record. Call it the "Jeremy Giambi" factor.
just for the record, per my calculations i should be at like 38-19, not 28-29, but i guess thats just me being off again.[/quote:516a2dfbff]
Just curious, how can you come up with this number?
Teams with powerful line-ups and supported by a strong bullpen often have a winning record below expectations from the pythagorian record. Call it the "Jeremy Giambi" factor.
- MARCPELLETIER
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by spicki17 » Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:34 am
[quote:1e4260b2c7]Teams with powerful line-ups and supported by a strong bullpen often have a winning record below expectations from the pythagorian record.[/quote:1e4260b2c7]
really? ive always understood it that the stronger the bullpen you have, the more close games you win. thats why a strong rp team can have a high amount of wins and still a low run differential.
i had chalked it up the first week or so to bad luck, but i guess you must be right and my logic must be off, cuz its not turning around.
really? ive always understood it that the stronger the bullpen you have, the more close games you win. thats why a strong rp team can have a high amount of wins and still a low run differential.
i had chalked it up the first week or so to bad luck, but i guess you must be right and my logic must be off, cuz its not turning around.
- spicki17
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by spicki17 » Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:35 am
[quote:45d0b1287e]Just curious, how can you come up with this number?[/quote:45d0b1287e]
hahaha. i kinda just guess-timated from some of the games i was looking back on that i felt i shouldve won while i was drunk last night. :) :) :)
hahaha. i kinda just guess-timated from some of the games i was looking back on that i felt i shouldve won while i was drunk last night. :) :) :)
- spicki17
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by MARCPELLETIER » Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:47 am
[quote:6c580f0ec7="spicki17"][quote:6c580f0ec7]Teams with powerful line-ups and supported by a strong bullpen often have a winning record below expectations from the pythagorian record.[/quote:6c580f0ec7]
really? ive always understood it that the stronger the bullpen you have, the more close games you win. thats why a strong rp team can have a high amount of wins and still a low run differential.
i had chalked it up the first week or so to bad luck, but i guess you must be right and my logic must be off, cuz its not turning around.[/quote:6c580f0ec7]
Well, I have don't have strong data. Just my personal experience. My Coors team with strong bullpen always underperform with regards to the pythagorian record (although they were still succesful).
really? ive always understood it that the stronger the bullpen you have, the more close games you win. thats why a strong rp team can have a high amount of wins and still a low run differential.
i had chalked it up the first week or so to bad luck, but i guess you must be right and my logic must be off, cuz its not turning around.[/quote:6c580f0ec7]
Well, I have don't have strong data. Just my personal experience. My Coors team with strong bullpen always underperform with regards to the pythagorian record (although they were still succesful).
- MARCPELLETIER
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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