[quote:5511ac5069]As for Mendoza: last time I checked, he was on a pace for more IP than any other reliever in the league. ... But as long as he keeps giving up runs by the bushel,[/quote:5511ac5069]
[color=darkred:5511ac5069][b:5511ac5069]Yowwwww!!![/b:5511ac5069][/color:5511ac5069] I hadn't realized the situation had gotten so serious. With my starting SP performing so pathetically, the fire alarms are ringing constantly in my pen. Mendoza currently on pace for 220 innings (and about 160 earned runs allowed. :oops: ).
...and [b:5511ac5069]spicki[/b:5511ac5069], sure I would expect your team to hit a little bit more, but you have been UNBELIEVABLY LUCKY with your starting pitching. You spent under 9.00M, yet you are ranked #3 in earned runs allowed. Skydome is certainly NOT a neutral park and your team should easily have an ERA over 5.00.
H&K, Mr. Stratomatic :P
Let's get the Champions League Off the Ground-check in here
by bigmahon » Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:50 pm
Let's face it. This league is rife with imperfect teams. Even you Strato geniuses, who quite evidently lie awake all night obsessing about how many lefty batters my mediocre squad will run out there against Wilson bloody Alvarez or some other lame reverse lefty (the answer is 2), have imperfect teams. :wink:
I don't see a single great team. Do any of you?
I don't see a single great team. Do any of you?
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by MARCPELLETIER » Mon Feb 13, 2006 1:06 pm
LOL all right spicki...point taken with regards to your record.
I only wanted to see how you would react anyway :wink:
I need you to sweep tonight anyway, so go spicki!!! :D
I only wanted to see how you would react anyway :wink:
I need you to sweep tonight anyway, so go spicki!!! :D
- MARCPELLETIER
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by michael_kofsky » Mon Feb 13, 2006 2:46 pm
I know I'm not in the league but I couldn't help but comment on something Lucky said about Chavez (especially since none of you "so-called" geniuses picked it up). Spicki -you are counting all of Chavez's ballpark effects as clean OBP chances. You just can't do that. Chavez, in reality, only has 39 OBP chances on his card against RHP. As Lucky correctly pointed out, Chavez ain't close to being a great lead-off hitter...
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by MARCPELLETIER » Mon Feb 13, 2006 3:27 pm
Ay! an outsider brings his input!
Yeah, my very own point of view is that all homeruns (straight-up or ballpark) must be taken away when we evaluate the value of a lead-off.
In my opinion, to calculate homeruns in the "on-base" percentage is a misconception. Homeruns don't put any player "on-base"; they rather clear the bases. The logic with homeruns is just not the same than the logic of "pure on-base".
A homerun is usually worth 1.4 RC (runs created). That's an average. If in one game, your team hits only solo homeruns, then the value of each homerun for that game is of course 1 run (1RC), not 1.4 RC. If your team hits a lot of solo homeruns, then the value for homeruns will in the long term decrease from 1.4RC to 1.2-1.3 RC. On the contrary, if you have a lot of multi-run homeruns, then on average the homeruns will be worth 1.5-1.6 RC.
With a lead-off like Chavez, Chavez's own homeruns, instead of valuing 1.4RC, will decrease to 1.2-1.3 RC. And once you take off his homeruns from his card, his on-base is rather poor. Thus, when Ramirez and Edmonds will hit their homeruns, they too will have homeruns of lesser value.
In fact, this line of reasoning is the very same that spicki has towards gbA. Spicki likes Chavez leading off because this reduces the chances of double-plays. Very true. But it also reduces the chances of hitting multi-run homeruns. Of course, in baseball, multi-run homeruns have much more impact than double plays...
There is a second problem with Chavez: the lack of stealing star. This reduces the overall on-base of the team by about .010 and increases the risk of double-plays that spicki wanted to avoid....
But, hey this is just my point of view. There are benefits with having Chavez hitting first (greater number of at-bats, reduced chances of gbA, a 1-14 runner that can score from first, line-up composition) which can perhaps outweight the negative side explained above.
This is just one (mine) theory. If we were applying my theories, then Woods would finish dead last, but he's the current champ, so obviously I don't get it always right. :lol:
Thus I repeat: I put the theoretical discussions just for the fun of discussing.
We don't play theories. We play real (strato)baseball. :wink:
Yeah, my very own point of view is that all homeruns (straight-up or ballpark) must be taken away when we evaluate the value of a lead-off.
In my opinion, to calculate homeruns in the "on-base" percentage is a misconception. Homeruns don't put any player "on-base"; they rather clear the bases. The logic with homeruns is just not the same than the logic of "pure on-base".
A homerun is usually worth 1.4 RC (runs created). That's an average. If in one game, your team hits only solo homeruns, then the value of each homerun for that game is of course 1 run (1RC), not 1.4 RC. If your team hits a lot of solo homeruns, then the value for homeruns will in the long term decrease from 1.4RC to 1.2-1.3 RC. On the contrary, if you have a lot of multi-run homeruns, then on average the homeruns will be worth 1.5-1.6 RC.
With a lead-off like Chavez, Chavez's own homeruns, instead of valuing 1.4RC, will decrease to 1.2-1.3 RC. And once you take off his homeruns from his card, his on-base is rather poor. Thus, when Ramirez and Edmonds will hit their homeruns, they too will have homeruns of lesser value.
In fact, this line of reasoning is the very same that spicki has towards gbA. Spicki likes Chavez leading off because this reduces the chances of double-plays. Very true. But it also reduces the chances of hitting multi-run homeruns. Of course, in baseball, multi-run homeruns have much more impact than double plays...
There is a second problem with Chavez: the lack of stealing star. This reduces the overall on-base of the team by about .010 and increases the risk of double-plays that spicki wanted to avoid....
But, hey this is just my point of view. There are benefits with having Chavez hitting first (greater number of at-bats, reduced chances of gbA, a 1-14 runner that can score from first, line-up composition) which can perhaps outweight the negative side explained above.
This is just one (mine) theory. If we were applying my theories, then Woods would finish dead last, but he's the current champ, so obviously I don't get it always right. :lol:
Thus I repeat: I put the theoretical discussions just for the fun of discussing.
We don't play theories. We play real (strato)baseball. :wink:
- MARCPELLETIER
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by mesquiton » Mon Feb 13, 2006 5:25 pm
[quote:9aff7988b6]mesquiton -- was your posting about abreu/beltran 1-2 being a good combo serious or a joke? if you are serious, my 2 cents is that beltran sucks in the 1 or 2 spot.[/quote:9aff7988b6]
Abreu at leadoff is currently leading the league in runs scored, Beltran batting 2nd is 9th in runs scored and 4th in RBI. Right behind them is Dunn leading the league in RBI (and 8th in runs!), and the team is 3rd in scoring behind only the 2 all-hitter-park teams. Why would you think I'm joking?
In hitter parks, with a little OB at the bottom of the order, I've seen Beltran lead leagues from the leadoff spot in both runs and RBI, in part because he gets so many more PAs at the top of the order.
I'd agree Beltran is not an ideal leadoff choice in pitcher parks, especially w/ no DH, or 60M leagues with no OB at the bottom of the order, but we've only got 2 or 3 real pitcher parks in this league.
Abreu and Beltran's power might also be wasted at 1-2 without the power behind them (Dunn, Thome, Burnitz, Boone), and Dunn is obviously overperforming, but these are the kind of results I was looking for from these guys, and I consider the Abreu/Beltran combo the key to my offense. So far, so good!
Some folks underestimate the value of AA stealing at the top of the order...turns a lot of potential double plays into runs instead. Beltran also switch hits, which gets him extra OB against all but the good reverse pitchers...and I'll take a leadoff homerun or double anytime, and be happy with those "bonus" RBI as well, as long as it doesn't cost me more elsewhere in the lineup.
I disagree with [b:9aff7988b6]marcus[/b:9aff7988b6] re homeruns not "counting" as "on base". In my book, a homerun is the best "on base" roll in the game...the run is not dependent on being knocked in...it's a bonus, not a liability...and with the luxury of homerun guys at the top of the order, they get more chances and therefore more bonus homeruns and RBI besides scoring runs. I could care less whether my leadoff knocks himself in or gets knocked in by somebody behind him, just so he scores.
Beltran also has low DPs. I thinks it's a bit silly to consider high DP chances a plus for a leadoff hitter, let alone 2 spot. Sure, you can minimize a high DP guy's hitting into DPs by leading him off, but high DP rolls are still a liability, no matter where they bat in the order.
I also agree with [b:9aff7988b6]lucky[/b:9aff7988b6] and others that all this analysis is just for fun and has limited real world SOM application, at best. By far the most important factor, in all situations, no matter what your strategy, is getting the right dice rolls!
Abreu at leadoff is currently leading the league in runs scored, Beltran batting 2nd is 9th in runs scored and 4th in RBI. Right behind them is Dunn leading the league in RBI (and 8th in runs!), and the team is 3rd in scoring behind only the 2 all-hitter-park teams. Why would you think I'm joking?
In hitter parks, with a little OB at the bottom of the order, I've seen Beltran lead leagues from the leadoff spot in both runs and RBI, in part because he gets so many more PAs at the top of the order.
I'd agree Beltran is not an ideal leadoff choice in pitcher parks, especially w/ no DH, or 60M leagues with no OB at the bottom of the order, but we've only got 2 or 3 real pitcher parks in this league.
Abreu and Beltran's power might also be wasted at 1-2 without the power behind them (Dunn, Thome, Burnitz, Boone), and Dunn is obviously overperforming, but these are the kind of results I was looking for from these guys, and I consider the Abreu/Beltran combo the key to my offense. So far, so good!
Some folks underestimate the value of AA stealing at the top of the order...turns a lot of potential double plays into runs instead. Beltran also switch hits, which gets him extra OB against all but the good reverse pitchers...and I'll take a leadoff homerun or double anytime, and be happy with those "bonus" RBI as well, as long as it doesn't cost me more elsewhere in the lineup.
I disagree with [b:9aff7988b6]marcus[/b:9aff7988b6] re homeruns not "counting" as "on base". In my book, a homerun is the best "on base" roll in the game...the run is not dependent on being knocked in...it's a bonus, not a liability...and with the luxury of homerun guys at the top of the order, they get more chances and therefore more bonus homeruns and RBI besides scoring runs. I could care less whether my leadoff knocks himself in or gets knocked in by somebody behind him, just so he scores.
Beltran also has low DPs. I thinks it's a bit silly to consider high DP chances a plus for a leadoff hitter, let alone 2 spot. Sure, you can minimize a high DP guy's hitting into DPs by leading him off, but high DP rolls are still a liability, no matter where they bat in the order.
I also agree with [b:9aff7988b6]lucky[/b:9aff7988b6] and others that all this analysis is just for fun and has limited real world SOM application, at best. By far the most important factor, in all situations, no matter what your strategy, is getting the right dice rolls!
- mesquiton
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by spicki17 » Mon Feb 13, 2006 8:06 pm
ok here are my chavez calculations:
w/ no ballparks - 49.05 obp v. left, 41.3 obp v. right
w/ 10 of 20 ballparks (how our league is) - 52.05 obp v. left, 45.3 v. right
w/ 20 of 20 ballparks - 55.05 v. left, 49.3 v. right
[b:07309b9660]lucky[/b:07309b9660] makes a point that homeruns dont count towards on-base for a leadoff hitter, or i guess should be included in calculating value, but at a lesser rate. i cant say i argue that it is lesser for a homerun for a 3 hitter than a leadoff hitter, but you are missing a few very vital points.
1. leadoff batters on a good hitting team (which i see mine as) average 4 - 5 at bats per game. only 1 is truly in the leadoff position, thus the rest of the homers count.
2. chavez is on my team with a lot of other big boys, so his lost homeruns in the leadoff spot does not affect my team as it would others.
3. i agreed back in the day chavez was ideal as a 2-hitter v. lefties, but i still think with the 52ish obp points v. lefties, hes an amazing 1 hitter.
4. every league i have chavez in he performs at worst with a 350 obp and typically in the 375-385 range (which is real nice for a leadoff hitter in my mind).
[b:07309b9660]mesquiton[/b:07309b9660], i will give you that i did not know beltran's obp was so high and gidp's were so low, so he is a better 2 hitter than i thought, but i have a lot of issues with abreu 1, beltran 2. seeing as you are in my division, i dont really wanna say why, cuz i like you thinking they are a good 1-2 tandem. keep them batting there!
w/ no ballparks - 49.05 obp v. left, 41.3 obp v. right
w/ 10 of 20 ballparks (how our league is) - 52.05 obp v. left, 45.3 v. right
w/ 20 of 20 ballparks - 55.05 v. left, 49.3 v. right
[b:07309b9660]lucky[/b:07309b9660] makes a point that homeruns dont count towards on-base for a leadoff hitter, or i guess should be included in calculating value, but at a lesser rate. i cant say i argue that it is lesser for a homerun for a 3 hitter than a leadoff hitter, but you are missing a few very vital points.
1. leadoff batters on a good hitting team (which i see mine as) average 4 - 5 at bats per game. only 1 is truly in the leadoff position, thus the rest of the homers count.
2. chavez is on my team with a lot of other big boys, so his lost homeruns in the leadoff spot does not affect my team as it would others.
3. i agreed back in the day chavez was ideal as a 2-hitter v. lefties, but i still think with the 52ish obp points v. lefties, hes an amazing 1 hitter.
4. every league i have chavez in he performs at worst with a 350 obp and typically in the 375-385 range (which is real nice for a leadoff hitter in my mind).
[b:07309b9660]mesquiton[/b:07309b9660], i will give you that i did not know beltran's obp was so high and gidp's were so low, so he is a better 2 hitter than i thought, but i have a lot of issues with abreu 1, beltran 2. seeing as you are in my division, i dont really wanna say why, cuz i like you thinking they are a good 1-2 tandem. keep them batting there!
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