SOM PLAYERS TOUR LEADERS (Thru Event 7, Leagues 1-3)

[teepack]

mesquiton is right - $80 million, DH, live draft. I can't recall if we waived the new stadium requirement or not. I'll have to go back and check. That cuased quite a stink last year.

[Play By The Rules]

Why is this rule not clearly posted?

[mesquiton]

From the posted rules:

[quote:53cd95d6e7]IX. Stadium requirement

Managers will be required to play in different stadiums during the Tour schedule, INCLUDING the Championship League. You cannot pick the same park twice. If you do pick a park twice, you will be fined 25 points off your total. In addition, all leagues will require unique stadiums (i.e. two managers can’t use the same stadium) with the exception of the opening autodraft league.[/quote:53cd95d6e7]

[J-Pav]

As best as I can forecast it, this is where we stand heading into the last week of the season. These teams are guaranteed a spot in the Final 12 (not necessarily in this order):

1. Woods
2. Marcus
3. Cristano
4. Etdefender
5. UTBill
6. Kaviksdad
7. UncleNY
8. Mesquiton

Somewhat surprisingly, UTBill will hold on to a guaranteed spot despite a difficult showing in League 7. I can't figure out a way he can drop from at least just squeezing in.

Spots 9-11 will [i:4e20d59114]likely[/i:4e20d59114] be filled by:

9. Coffee (he [i:4e20d59114]should[/i:4e20d59114] make the playoffs)
10. Riggo (he [i:4e20d59114]should[/i:4e20d59114] win his division)
11. Spicki (he [b:4e20d59114]must[/b:4e20d59114] make the playoffs)

Which brings us to the last spot. Making some basic assumptions and doling out the (*) double-points for playoff spots, there are only three contenders that I can find (if I missed somebody, it was by oversight only):

A. If Pacoboy wins it all (Champ), he will go to the Final 12.
B. If Daniel wins his division or a wildcard spot, he will go to the Final 12.
C. If none of the above, J-Pav (that's me) will go to the Final 12 (approx 97.7 avg).

Pacoboy's situation is something of a longshot. Daniel's situation is way more doable, but his race is [i:4e20d59114]so[/i:4e20d59114] close it will likely come down to game 162.

There are also a few intangibles. Coffee's league is only 99 games into League 7, so there's quite a bit of baseball to be played still over there. To make my forecasts, I extrapolated each teams' current win percentage over 162 games. This may be a bit generous to Coffee, forecasting a division title and 95 wins. Still, if things hold as they are, he should make it.

Riggo has 21 games to go and a four game lead. Barring disaster, he will make the cut line.

Spicki [b:4e20d59114]must[/b:4e20d59114] win at least the wildcard, where he also must hold his four game lead over 21 games.

I do not see anyone else in contention, but I may have missed something, and if I did, apologies to that manager.

Does anybody else see it differently?

Good luck to all, it has been and continues to be an extremely competetive tour finale!



:D

[Coffeeholic]

Cripes J-Pav... why don't you just get a Voodoo witch doctor to put a curse on me next time! :wink:

[mesquiton]

Detroit Tigers is only 2 games out of the wildcard with 61 to play in League 4. If he wins the wildcard or better, I think he makes the finals...and could bump UTBill or J-Pav.

Or, if he gains 6 games to win their division, he could bump Coffee...and make room for both UTBill and J-Pav...unless dneedle bumps one of them...or...if J-Pav catches fire in the final week, and all the playoffs go just right (wrong), they could all combine to bump...(gasp)...mesquiton!

Good luck and Merry Christmas to all!

:D

[J-Pav]

[i:201a772c74]Update[/i:201a772c74]:

With only 15 games to go in the first three Round 7 leagues, the Final 12 is still too close to call. Teepack's latest update also introduced BigMahon back to the hunt.

The intangibles are these:

1. Riggo needs to make the playoffs and he's in.
2. Coffee needs to make the playoffs and he's in.
3. Spicki needs to make the playoffs and he's in.

The last spot goes to:

1. Pacoboy [b:201a772c74]IF[/b:201a772c74] he wins a Championship.
2. Dneedle [b:201a772c74]IF[/b:201a772c74] he wins the division.
3. Detroit Tigers [b:201a772c74]IF[/b:201a772c74] he makes the playoffs.
4. BigMahon if none of the above (97.8 points) unless...
5. J-Pav if I win at least 79 games (97.86 average)


There are still so many "what if's" left to be decided, that it appears there is no way to predict who will make the last spots until Game 162 is played out.

Good luck to all!

:D

[cristano11]

i think u guys are giving too much credit to UTbill
he definitely isnt a lock by any means
if he misses playoffs with his current event 7 winning pct, it would drop him to what is currently the 11-14 place positioning...
with guys like riggio and coffee and spicki and pacoboy all making a push to make playoffs, there could be some trouble...
i see the locks as:
1. woods
2. marcus
3. cristano
4. et
5. kaviksdad
6. uncle
7. mesquiton

i see 3 others going to:
8. riggio (even on wc and 1 up on div with 12 remaining)
9. coffee (4 up on wc and 4 up on div with 54 remaining)
10. spicki (4 up on wc and 3 back on div with 12 remaining)

that leaves 2 positions left for:
jpav (3 back of div with 12 remaining)
dneedle (2 back of div with 12 remaining)
utbill (awful league 7 but 105.8 avg points going into league 7)
pacoboy (even on wc and 4 back of div with 12 to play)
detroit (2 back of wc and 6 back of div with 54 to play)
giddyup (5 back of wc with 12 to play)

[J-Pav]

The remaining ten contenders all [b:573d33d213]must[/b:573d33d213] at least make the playoffs to be [i:573d33d213]assured[/i:573d33d213] a spot. With the exception of Giddyup and Pacoboy, if you make the playoffs, you make the Final 12. Giddyup [i:573d33d213]might[/i:573d33d213] need some additional help, and Pacoboy must advance further in his leagues' playoffs to make the cut line.

The one-step-further analysis is figuring out who goes in the event that several teams do not make the playoffs. Without the benefit of the additional playoff points, using the teams' current win pct, these would be the up-to-the-minute standings:

1. UTBill 98.6 (even w/ only 67 wins, he'd still have 98 points)
2. [b:573d33d213]Coffee[/b:573d33d213] 98.1 (lots of baseball to be played in last league)
3. J-Pav 97.9 (needs 79 wins to stay ahead of BigMahon)
4. BigMahon 97.8 (no League 7 team, so he's firm at 97.8 points)
5. [b:573d33d213]Riggo[/b:573d33d213] 97.6 (needs 89+ wins to move ahead of BigMahon)
6. [b:573d33d213]Spicki[/b:573d33d213] 96.5 (needs to win that WC)
7. Dneedle 95.4 (needs to make playoffs)
8. Detroit 95.0 (WC plus current win pct gives him 99 points)
9. Giddyup 95.0 (WC plus current win pct gives him 97.8 points)
10. Pacoboy 93.5 (needs playoffs and more)

[b:573d33d213]Bold[/b:573d33d213] indicates team is currently in the playoffs.

Here's a question for Teepack:

The Tour Standings are updated to the tenth of a point. Several of these teams are separated by hundredths of a point. In the event of a tie, is the math extrapolated out to the full decimal place (thousandth?), or is it considered a tie if the fraction is rounded to the tenth (and then it goes to the posted event tie-breakers)??

I'm on vacation until after the New Year, hence the obsessive compulsive behavior over the standings. And what a race this is! The Final 12 will literally be decided when game 162 is played out in the last league!

As always, good luck to all.

:D

[bigmahon]

Man, it stinks that I will not be making the finals, but I definitely don't deserve it. Yes I won 2 titles, but I only had one great team (95 win auction team that went 7-0 in the playoffs, including a sweep of luckyman in the finals :D ). Clearly that wasn't enough.

I finished 13th last year also... :roll: :(