My long, crazy post

[honestiago1]

Just for fun, I thought I’d explore the realm of the obvious. The following is a philosophy to follow when putting together a “lockdown,” or pitching-heavy team. This is not an in-depth analysis -- just a light hearted look at a possible strategy.

Thou shalt lock down thy opponent
Lots of GMs want the big bats, and they choose hitters parks to accentuate them. If you do the same thing, you’ll end up vying for the same players, meaning if you lose those players, you lose – period.

Rather than seeing who can pummel the other team into submission, you could go with the “lockdown” strategy. Take a pitcher’s park and draft pitching and defense. Take advantage of a player’s “givens” (running, stealing, range, e-rating, arm and bat control; pitcher endurance, hold, etc.). Draft for that, and you’ll get the players YOU want. You will, as well, throw a wrench into everyone else’s works. By going extreme pitching/defense, you force them to adjust to your style for 81 games, rather than playing everyone else’s style for 162.

Thou shalt covet the lefty:
NO ONE drafts either Key or Higuera #1 or #2. Why? They’re going after the usual suspects (Yount, Ripken, Schmidt, Rickey, Raines, Brett, Clemens, Carlton [maybe, but maybe not], Eck [sometimes this happens] and so on, and so on). Both these guys are prime SP, and, in my mind, the best LHP’s on the board. You might get a tough year out of either of them, but nothing you can’t live with. Plus, their price makes them great drop material later, in case you do decide to go cheap and gamble on a couple of lesser lights. Draft ‘em #1, #2. They’ll be there.

Thou shalt overate the middle IF
Okay, you’re not going to get Trammell and Whitaker back to back. Well, you might, but you’d miss out on those prime lefties, above. Here’s what you do: overvalue Tony Fernandez. He’s a 1e17, can run, has four good hitting years (two very good ones), is a switchie, and will hit in ANY park you put him in (due to his lack of power). You can easily get him at #3 because he simply isn’t valued that highly at that spot. Trammell, Ripken, Yount and Smith will all go before him, as will Burleson, who is a good bat, and is cheaper. There will also be GMs who go with the cheap SS’s to save money for “real” hitters. They’ll pick up Guillen, or UL Washington, Schofield or Uribe perhaps [perhaps]. More power to ‘em. And more power to the dude who took Burleson instead of Tony, since Tony can do one thing Rick can’t – hit from the left side.

By the way, you can also get Herr at #5, if you’re willing to overvalue him, as well. Why not? Good OBP, bat control, and 2e10. He’ll produce for you at the top of the lineup. Frank White will be there this high, as well (but he’s got quite the low OBP).

Thou shalt get a clue (and a closer)
The prevailing strategy among many 80s GMs when it comes to relievers is to get ‘em on the cheap and hope someone can get an out late, when outs count the most. I say, why gamble? NO ONE drafts Henke at #4, so you should. Every single year he has is usable. Sure, he’s going to give up a dinger every now and then. So what? Henke gets those shutdown K’s. He has a superlative K-WALK ratio. And even if he has down periods, he’s a lock for 30-40 saves. He’s cheaper than Eck, has a better average WHIP than Quiz, and has an E BAL. He also has no really extreme cards (well, maybe the 4R). He’ll be there at #4, because we’re overvaluing him (either that, or everyone else is undervaluing him). If you must gamble, gamble with the setup men – not the closer (by the way, the same “dump” rule applies, a la Hig and Key – one Henke dump can get you two gamble relievers, if you really want ‘em, or a single reliever and cash to pick up another bat, should you so desire).

Thou shalt give obeisance to the inning eaters:
Shorten up your bullpen by taking guys who pitch a lot of innings, preferably a pitcher who managed to win games in a hitter’s park. Someone like Jack Morris fits this description, as does Mario Soto (who really is somewhat overpriced, but always has a good WHIP). Bert Blyleven is a decent choice, if you can get him, as is anyone else who has several 200+ IP cards. Move the hitter’s park pitcher to the pitcher’s park – they, in turn will move from good to very good. If you get their best years, they’ll move from GOOD to GREAT.

Thou shalt take bats that work anywhere:
I can’t overstate this enough – LOOK AT WHERE THE PLAYERS ACTUALLY PLAYED. Players who labored in pitcher’s parks are going to be more valuable hitters on the road than vice versa. Someone like a Dwayne Murphy, whose mystery cards are ALL compiled in Oakland, is going to thrive just about anywhere else (even with his low avg. card). Even the Astrodome will favor him somewhat, as the singles rate is higher than at OAK. It won’t hurt his HR’s much either, since the difference between the ‘Dome and Oakland is small. Someone like Steve Kemp, on the other hand, is much more a by-product of his stadium. He should be avoided in most cases, unless your gambling on his really big year.

Thou shalt value the hard single
If you’re going lockdown, be sure to find players who were good hitters in pitcher’s parks (as above), OR were good hitters altogether (hit for a decent and “hard” average [not too many BP singles]; and b) can bunt and/or H&R. ALL hits have greater value in the pitcher’s park, and you need to be able to do something with the base runners you do get. You’re going to need to move runners along. You want to get that lead and hold it. Having base stealers is great, but you’re probably not going to get the really good ones, a la Rickey, Raines, Butler, because you drafted other players. You just need some A’s & B’s so that those H&R ratings move from C’s to B’s, and B’s to A’s.

Hitters: Look for the usual good OPS, but play close attention to the players’ averages. See if you can sneak in a .300 hitter with a maybe not so good OBP. Remember: hits have greater value in a pitcher’s park, and you can only advance one base on a WALK. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater (meaning, don’t turn away from good OPS, good OBP). Just remember that your pitcher’s park lessens slugging without affecting WALKS and hard singles.

Hard single guys: anyone with a consistent .300 average, a la Madlock, Molitor, Oliver, Polonia (the only .75 hitter who appears on the first screen sort when you click on “avg.”), Franco – we’re talkin’ guys you might actually be able to get (though Franco is DH material for our team).

Thou shalt mix and match
Get a decent CF (DwMurph, if he’s there, or maybe Pettis) and a decent catcher. Then have fun with the IF and OF corners. You ain’t gonna get Gamble. He’s too highly prized by everyone else. You can get Gary Matthews in the middle rounds. He’s listed as a 4 in LF, but is a 3 in RF. You can play him there and not lose too much defensively. Someone I’ve always wanted to try and simply never have is Eddie Milner. Good D, good arm, some power and walks at only 2.74M. You’d need a good platoon player to go with him, but he might be worth a shot. He’d allow you to spend more on the other corner (or on BOTH corners, if you use him in CF). Brian Downing might be worth picking up, though he played in a hitter’s park. Dude walks, is a 3 in LF (albeit with a +2 arm). He also gets HBP’s. He would get on base for you consistently, and have pop on the road. He’s also a player you can get in the middle rounds, a neglected gem, bat-wise.

Don’t worry too much about poor range at the corners. Low e-rate is important, natch, as you don’t want to give your opponent’s ANYTHING if you can help it (we’re maximizing run value here). Personally, I’d try to stick to only one below average range OF and IF corner, but this is where you must find some offense in the lockdown strategy. Besides, you can always find gloves in one half of the platoon. You might get a good Beuchele card for your RH 3B side. He’s also your defensive replacement. Mike Aldrete is a good LH 1B for a pitcher’s park. He also has decent defense (3e8), and is someone you can get in the middle rounds. Get enough O to get a lead, then put the gloves in to hold it.

Thou shalt watch the waiver wire
All that said, you ARE going to need a top flight player or two in your lineup. More than likely, someone will drop one. Either that, or there will be some very good players left over after waivers. Be online right when the frenzy starts and snag those studs. You only need 1 or two, since the bulk of your money is already tied up in pitching. Just need that guy to be rock around which the order revolves. You’d be surprised who’s left over!

Thou shalt not waver
You’re going to be in a lot of close games. You’re also going to get shut out from time to time. On the positive side, you’re going to be in most games, with a real chance to win. You’ll need a strong stomach to go little, but it’s worth the effort to see your bunch o’ no names eek out victory after victory over the big boys (and yes, I AM looking at this through rose-colored glasses).

[AdamPhoenix]

First HA...have a little time on your hands, do we??? :D

Now more importantly, that is one of the most well thought out theory-type posts, I am very impressed and actually I was thinking of trying a team geared towards the pitchers park and your post wll definitely help to take my thoughts and add to them or in some case change the way I was thinking.

Let me know how you do with your team that is built on these ideas. And who knows, if it does well maybe we can call these the"HonestA's SmallBall Theory".

Again, great job.

[honestiago1]

I've had good luck with the first team built on the premise. The next two teams are both above .500, but not overwhelming anyone. You need great years out of SP's. From a numbers standpoint, it has to be easier to get great years out of 4 guys (rotation) rather than 9 (lineup). We'll see how subsequent teams do.

[bjs73]

:D

Your post was eloquent and it basically describes how to be successful with a small ball team. It's very much like what I do to be successful in this game in the big ballparks.

Out of 5 championship teams for me: (2) were in Royals, (1) was in Astrodome, (1) was at Comiskey, and (1) was at Kingdome.

Personally, I've tried to be dominant in other ballparks like Oakland and it has been miserable for me. Even when i draft a team that I know has good cards, they severely underperform there for me. That's frustrating.

I like Royals and Astrodome just fine but I got burned out from playing there all the time. I really like Tiger too. (It really is a pitcher's park of sorts like Jack Murphy is.)

The key to winning is to balance your team. Do not allow any type of weakness that others can exploit.

I too believe that you need a good show stopper in the pen. When I build a team, I shoot for spending about 35 million (sometimes more) on pitching. Sutter set the all time saves record in the 80's for me on my last championship squad. It is clear to me after all of the cards were revealed that he and Jesse Orosco were the guys that took me to the promised land. Sutter contributed to a little over 70% of my victories. Wow.

[honestiago1]

I'm finding out how much I like being a front runner. My last two teams -- slow starts. And I didn't get the lockdown pitching I got with the last group.

I noticed a lotta folks like Royals, I guess because it favors singles hitters (I imagine hitters with speed, once you get on). Never tried it. I have a team in Dodger, but they're slumping at the moment. My Wrigley team was up and down all year until I got Sutcliffe's best card in a trade. Team got hot, but wilted at the end. Too much ground to make up.

That's awesome what you got out of Sutter. I had him on my first team and got his best card. Wasted his great year, though, with crummy SP. My bullpen was actually damned good that year, but, man, did I build the team wrong -- speed in Wrigley (d'oh!). Picked up Strawm, but he was a man alone.

Anyway, thanks for telling me of your successes. I have some dark days for present pitching teams at the moment. But, fingers crossed!