Drop/add strategy

[PaddyLanePounders]

This is my first 80's league and I've noticed that the strategy of some teams seems to be - drop a player very quickly (less than 50 ab or 20 ip) if he does poorly until hitting on a player who performs well. Can that strategy work? So far it seems to be having success in my league.

Or is it a strategy that can work, but only if you are very knowledgable of the player cards and can more easily identify bad/good cards from previous experience? Or is it (as I hope! :twisted: ) a strategy doomed for failure?

[PaddyLanePounders]

LEAGUE DROP/ADDS so far with team record

33 SMA 18-21
23 CHE 25-14
14 MAY 22-17
9 BEA 13-26
8 CRI 19-20
8 ARC 14-25
6 SHE 23-16
5 KEE 18-21 My Krazy Keeshond team! :(
5 MIR 22-17
0 SQU 19-20
0 STO 24-15

8 teams have dropped as many or more than me and 6 of those 8 have a record better than or equal to mine. Am I being to patient with players? 2 of the 3 teams with the most drop/adds have the 1st and 4th best records! Is it typical for teams drop/adding this much 39 games into the season to be doing so well?

[YountFan]

You can be plenty foolish to drop a player too soon. 50AB is not enough evidence. I've had guys suck for 81 games and then be on fire the rest of the season, or visa versa. Most vets feel you need at least 100 ab. BJS has a doctorial thesis on the subjust base on his years in quality control and stastictaly analysis. Unless you know for sure the big name players (4/5 million and up) need to be given a fair shake. Say, 35 games or so. It also helps to track some stats at points during the season and collect the deltas. This way as hot or cold start can be identified in the analysis. It has been my experince that player have 2 bad 'months' person season. (a month is a 27 game slice, of which there are 6 in a season). This these come early guys get dropped.

Picking up a dropped Kevin Mitchel and having him rip the ball for you is great. Sometimes the change in ballpark, division and league dynamics can alter the game over the course of the season. Teams tend to improve over the season so it gets harder to win after game 108. Lots of guys will tell you they were on a pace to win 97 or 100 games and ended up with 85.

In the end you have to go with what works for you. And that could be different in different league. And that is why the 80 rock. It is never the same game.

[bjs73]

[quote:b827d57ca5]Or is it a strategy that can work, but only if you are very knowledgable of the player cards and can more easily identify bad/good cards from previous experience? Or is it (as I hope! ) a strategy doomed for failure?[/quote:b827d57ca5]

Well, it's not an easy answer. Sure, you can get a handle on identifying your cards early with some injury reveals. However, letting the waive button rip can easily back you into a corner by mid-game when it comes to having cash on hand.

DJ Trickster pointed out to someone one time that a series of drops/adds in the early season occur as a domino effect. Usually it starts with someone without patience that drops a stud player. An experienced player will then drop someone from their roster to obtain that stud player. Doesn't mean that the player the experienced guy dropped was "bad" just that the potential of owning the stud player made his team better as a whole. This happens a lot in leagues.

I've played both sides of that coin meaning, I've made the mistake of letting someone go when I shouldn't have, and I've also benefited from someone else's mistake. We've all experienced it.

The managers that have made 33, 23, 14 drops already might be impatient. Hard to tell without knowing what players and what stat lines/injury reveals they had.

I'm at the point in my game where I am usually around 5 cuts or less at the first deadline. Usually, this means that I've had a definite injury reveal and want the cash back right away. I don't always make a pickup right away either. I like having the cash on hand to be able to make a move on a player that someone else drops. If you don't have the cash, you can't improve your team for the final stretch.

If you're interested in some pointers on identifying position player cards based on stats alone, check out my blog for an article on it. Also, if you private message me, I'll give you some other pointers as well.

[YountFan]

[quote:99e134052d]If you're interested in some pointers on identifying position player cards based on stats alone, check out my blog for an article on it. Also, if you private message me, I'll give you some other pointers as well.
[/quote:99e134052d]

Dr Simpson...making house calls? Take BJS up on is offer the man knows what he is taking about.

[Outta Leftfield]

For what it's worth, I find myself making fewer and fewer cuts as I've gained experience. If I cut somebody, I really want to have a good reason--e.g. not just bad performance, but reason to believe the player is in a bad year. I drafted this player for a good reason, so I only want to cut him for a good reason. In some recent years I've only made 3 or 4 cuts by the 42 game deadline. I'll often consider a cut 10 times before finally making it (or more often, not making it.) Maybe I'm nuts, but it seems to be working.

Aside from injuries, HBP, triples and other rare events, the other great source of insight on this point is platoon data. Often the platoon data will allow you to make an educated guess about the possible year or (more likely) years a player is in. Sometimes that will lead to a decision to keep the player, sometimes to cut, and sometimes to platoon (as in, this player will be good if I platoon him). In my first season, platoon data kept me from cutting Darryl Strawberry when he was struggling early (and so was my team), and he went on to hit 47 HR, score 111 runs, knock in 120 RBI, and overall, save my season.

Sometimes you just have to make a move even if you're only half sure, but underperformance is only one factor in the equation.

[nycalderon]

Sometimes making quick changes early works and sometimes it doesn't. Many players have the same chance to have a good card as other players (2 or 3). However the best players in the game have a better chance to have a good season (4) and to cut one of THEM without a good reason (injury, poor performance that follows a definite statistical trend on a bad card) is foolish.

[Outta Leftfield]

I should probably modify what I said above by adding that one's attitude toward holding players is partly governed by how well you did in the draft and waivers.

If you had a great draft and got players you really wanted, you should probably be a bit more careful about releasing them. On the other hand, if you got stuck with some players who you don't regard as particularly great, then it makes sense to take a more opportunistic approach, dropping some of the guys you got stuck with if some star you like better ends up on the FA pile.

This ties in to what nyc said above:
[quote:d3eaa0569d]However the best players in the game have a better chance to have a good season (4) and to cut one of THEM without a good reason (injury, poor performance that follows a definite statistical trend on a bad card) is foolish.[/quote:d3eaa0569d]
If you've got a player with four good years, try to find a reason to consider that a player is (or isn't) in one of those four good years. This also applies to picking up free agents. If you can find an indicator that rules out the bad year with some degree of probability--go for it!

[honestiago1]

I was the one with the 8 cuts, which included Mike Schmidt. My main problem is very poor pitching (plus Schmidt was performing VERY poorly). This is a pitcher's league, so I had thought I'd have an advantage with some better hitters here and there. Didn't work. Got off to 1-8 start, then was sitting at something like 7-17. Felt like I had to make some sort of move. If I had been at 2-3 games below .500, I probably would've stuck it out a bit, tweaked here and there. Way I figure it, I'm 10 under, why not make some dumps? Can't make me much worse.

P.S. John Farrell seems like a REALLY good deal at 1.38M. He really has 4 usable years, esp. if he's in a pitcher's park (I have him in one of the other leagues, on a team I can't seem to coax above .500 [been at 4-5 games under ALL year; reminds me of the Cubs]).