by Outta Leftfield » Wed Jan 11, 2006 10:01 am
[quote:b35bde6550="fitch70"]In Royals Stadium for 80's game, how much higher than they actually performed for the year would a pitchers ERA be accepted as normal? Still 1 run for ERA, or more like 1.5 higher? WHIP?[/quote:b35bde6550]
I think 1 run above normal [b:b35bde6550]on average[/b:b35bde6550] is to be expected, but it might be a bit higher or lower depending on defense, the other teams in your division, league average ERA (which can vary considerably), and the rolls each player happens to get.
Here's one team I had in Royals. The team was 2nd in the league in both runs scored and fewest earned runs allowed. So was it a hitter's park or a pitcher's park?
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=51359
I consider this a very lucky team. The SP's did great as a group--the RP's struggled a bit more. The *SPs were all in excellent years. Blyleven was almost exactly on target with his ERA and Leibrandt was actually better than expected but Bryn Smith was 1.09 runs over and D Martinez was 1.02 over. All of that was within the normal range. Martinez was 23-9 despite his 3.97 ERA because the hitting is so good in the 80's. You can be one run over and succeed.
League average ERA was 4.30, which is actually a bit lower than what I usually see. Most of the relievers were at least a run over their real ERAs. The team actually tied for the league lead in lowest WHIP--probably a reflection of both good pitching and good defense. Two dropped starters, Reuschel and Higuera, got clobbered early, and I was lucky to successfully replace them, so you don't see their inflated stats on the final roster. When I dropped them, Higuera had a 7.98 ERA in seven starts (4 runs over his worst), and Reuschel had an ERA of 5.66, a little less than 2 runs over his worst. Both were probably victims of bad rolls, while the other *SP's had good years and got good rolls.
Here's the other Royals team.
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=59279
This one was third in runs scored and third in ER's allowed. Again, that might suggest it can be both a hitters park for the home team and a pitcher's park against the visiting team. League average ERA in this league was 4.68, so in general you'd expect pitcher ERA's to be more elevated on this team, and they are. Swan went 16-10 despite an ERA of 4.61. His real ERA in that year was 3.29. On the other hand, Knepper (a late season pickup) had an ERA of 4.17 despite a real ERA of 5.27--so a wide variation from real ERA is possible, in both directions.
Hope this helps. Maybe the moral is that any starter's ERA below 4.50 is not too bad in this league and a pitcher with an ERA above that can sometimes win, too, if your hitting is good enough--this would be true in any park. In general, the balance of hitting and pitching more often resembles the decade of baseball we're now in (1995-2005) than the 80's itself, where the league average ERA is often around 4.5 or higher, so adjust your expections in pitching to fit that norm. :D