Maximum Rules

[tkkjlsoup]

Voovits' recent start-and-stop on his "Experiment on HAL as Computer Manager" Post (found here: http://forums.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=536150 ) got me thinking. Two questions (from a guy who doesn't own the CD-ROM version of the game):

1. The link to the discusion on "Maximum Rules" (found here: http://somonline.bluwiki.com/go/Maximum_Rules ) describes how Maximum Rules help protect someone like Dennis Eckersley from underperforming on his 1990 card in light of the fact that he essentially never walked anyone in his 1990 season. Do these same maximum rules also serve sometimes to prevent hitters from vastly outperforming the outcomes that their cards would produce on random dice rolls? Example would be a hitter on a good but not great card that has a lot of BPHRs and is playing in the Murph or Kingdome -- would this guy's stats be limited under the "Maximum Rules"?

2. Voovits' blog/discussion ends rather abruptly in connection with a statement that he had been advised (privately) by a respected member not to post his theories so publicly. I can understand this from the perspective of not wanting well-reasoned but ultimately incorrect theories developed upon anecdotal evidence to become legend and eventually accepted "fact" among online players. But the abrupt end of the discussion seems (perhaps unintentionally) to have a hint of "don't give out too much information because people will understand too much" to it that seems out of line with the collegial and helpful nature of most of the players and postings here. Maybe voovits and/or his secret correspondent can clarify the reasoning behind the abrupt end of the blog? Feel free to PM me if I'm out of line here.

[AdamKatz]

I am not the person who spoke to Voois (if there is such a person) but I think I can clarify things. On the one hand, it is clear that HAL uses some non-arbitrary system to pick players but exactly what that is, is not clear.
If you have 2 CFs on your bench and one is a righty 1(-3) with a 400 obp, 500 slg and 2R, he is going to get played against a right handed pitcher over a lefty 2(o) 350 obp, 450 slg 2L almost every time unless the opposing pitcher is a 6R or something (in which case i dont know what would happen). However, I will say for a fact that HAL has, on different occassions, benched Dave Winfield against righties in his 1979 .952 OPS 3L year for me in favor of RFs that are worse in every single way except that they might be a 2R-and to be clear those other RFs are worse against righties than Winfield (who is still a 373 obp and 526 slg against rightise in that year).

HAL is pretty good with guys like Mattingly or guerrero who have 4 great years and one terrible year. If HAL bats Matingly 9th, he probably is in his worst year even if he goes 4 for 4. However, using HAL and stats I dropped Guerrero once, he got picked up and it turned out it was one of his good years so beware.

Now, why shouldnt we all get together and find out exactly what the specific rules are? Because, honestly, it could turn this game into an add/drop race. I freely admit that I take hints from HAL and my record is pretty good but I use HAL as a supplement, not as a primary source of information (excpet in some cases). I am seeing other people in my leagues doing strange things. In some leagues, I have seen an add/drop race every day. If everyone knew how HAL picked players and made the order it would't really be a mystery card game. Knowing that HAL can help determine Mattingly's year isnt tht big a deal since (1) its not like it can get harder to draft him-he is already a 1st round pick and (2) you probably would have figured it out anyway within a week.

Bottom line you will win more games drafting well, reviewing tilts and stats and 2Bs and BBs and taking advantage of someone who drops Clemens after 3 games and a 900 OPS Jackson (nice job Jablowmi) than using HAL to pick your order.

[chess2899]

I agree wholeheartedly with Adam. HAL can be a valuable asset but one's dependence on HAL could also ruin your teams.

In the 70s mystery game a few months ago, I decided to let HAL put in my line-up. He batted Tony Perez 9th in 6 games, so I punted him. YountFan scooped him up immediately and then it became clear that it was Perez's monster year...a .340 BA. .440 on base, with 40 HR. Frustrated, I let HAL set my line-up again. Dave Parker was batted 9th and since he was hitting poorly for me, he was dumped. Parker was picked up again, and yes, it was his .315 BA year. After a season of struggles, I got hot and slid into a playoff spot. Unfortunately, I face YountFan in round 1 with Perez sitting in the clean-up spot for him waiting to pummel my butt instead of him hitting for me.

I have seen the drops/adds increasing in the last few leagues with managers giving hitters under 20 at bats. I assume that HAL is setting their line-ups and when a player is put in the 8th or 9th slot, they get dumped. Well, these dumped players are getting picked back up by other managers and go on to have very good seasons.

Perhaps Hal does help, but from what I see, many more coaching mistakes are occuring based on their dependence on HAL. Adam is right. Play the game the way it should be played, look at splits, doubles, and walks and use your creativity. I used to be a professional chess player and won many games from computers because despite their superior analytical ability, they lacked the creativity that a human possesses. Be smart and creative with your line-ups, and that is where the joy of baseball lies. Don't play your games using HAL as a crutch. Man will still prevail over machine.

[tkkjlsoup]

I agree with AK and Chess on the question of whether it is beneficial for us as a group to discover and disclose HAL's managing logic. There is only one very limited type of manager move by HAL that I have decided I should take to the bank. For the reasons descirbed above, I won't share what that is. And I might be totally wrong anyway.

Can anyone address the first question above, i.e. are the Maximum Rules settings designed to limit player upsides as well as player downsides?

[voovits]

The only thing I think that HAL limits on the maximum side is triples, and I think it's is up for debate as to whether or not that rule is even in place in these games.
I have excellent proof that homeruns are not capped out.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/70s/playoffs/team_other.html?user_id=36444&stats=sim

Mike Ivie led the league in homeruns with 55 in his 79 year. He only hit 27 homeruns in that season. Also note that Tim Foli hit 49 doubles in only 445 ABs as well.
This example is a prime reason as to why there won't be any true maximums on stats, especially in the mystery card games.
Not all players seasons have the same number of at bats. Since there is no limit on overusage of the players, you can't max the stats.
Ivie hit only 27 HRs in 402 ABs, but in the season he came up to bat 654 times. if he was mexed at 27 homeruns, that would not be fair.
Limiting overusage would be the only solution, but in mystery card, you can't do that. Having said that, the CDROM game does not prevent stats from getting too inflated with the exception of triples. The CDROM game also mentions something about making it "harder" for players to hit .400 or break certain regular season records, but not impossible. I don't think that applies in the online game either.

As far as all that HAL stuff, the identity of the person who spoke to me is not important, but the main idea of making the game and add/drop fest was the main point. Though I disagree with some of the points made, I respect others opinions (I know many people share that opinion) and decided to stop discussing it. We're all supposed to be friends here and I didn't want to start making enemies. That's more important to me.
Having said that I didn't really plan on making drops of key players based on HALs decisions. HALs decisions played a factor in to some of my moves, but it has actually lead to mixed results.
As a result of what HAL did, and my subsequent actions, ABs ended up more spread out among all my players. So when a couple players reach 100+ ABs and it's time to make a keep/drop decision, other players have maybe 60-70 ABs and I then have to wait longer to decide, leaving the FA pool even thinner.
All things considered though, I would never let HALs moved coax me into prematurely dropping a player because of a poor start or HAL batting him last or even pinch hitting for him. HAL has been pinch hitting for my 86 Von Hayes against lefties in one of my leagues, which is mildly annoying.
If I see a league turn into an add/drop fest within the first 2-3 days, you can bet I'll be looking for those big name guys who were dropped and snatching some of them up.

[canauscot]

All of which gets to my point that HAL should be made transparently dumb. He should put the most expensive players on the field and bat them in that order. He already starts the most expensive pitcher (I don't think that is a secret). Admittedly relievers is a trickier question, but that is another post.

We ought to be trying to figure out what card we have with K:BB ratios not trying to figure out why HAL did this or that...but while we've got what we've got, I'll still be doing both.

[Semper Gumby]

Even if you guess the right card using HAL or not, you still have to match up against your divisional foes. You could have the best seasons and still find yourself in last place

Case in point - my last 80s team. If you take time to read those posts, I narrowed all the position cards before the All-Star break using various methods including HAL.

What you'll notice - I had several cards with arguably their worse seasons (Clark, Bonilla) who would have been dropped in most leagues. And, a very slow starting Don Mattingly.

Despite HAL's hints, I stuck with Clark and Bonilla and finished with the league's best record even though I benched the team at the 144 game mark.

As for HAL picking line-ups, the CD-ROM format has a methodology to selecting position players. What we don't know is what settings TSN has invoked which make a 1:1 translation impossible.

Otherwise, HAL is tough to use to cull pitchers (again see my post and see how often HAL used Kiper).