Tommy Herr

[visick]

I'm a little confused here.

I'm looking at his 1987 card. He's W power vs. LH's, yet he's got a straight HOMERUN @ 1-2 and a hr split @ 1-3 (1-8, double the rest)

and

his 1988 card. He's W power vs. LH's and again he's got a straight HOMERUN @ 1-2 with a hr split @ 1-3 of 1-15 (double the rest)

Are they errors?

Just wondering,
visick

[voovits]

I don't think so.
Both of his cards have 0 homerun chances against righties for one thing.
Secondly, a straight homerun may look pretty, but at 1-2 it's only a 0.9 chance of rolling it.
His overall homerun chance (assuming the roll is on his card) is 1.67% for his 87 card and 2.31% for his 88 card.
When you look at the # of homeruns he hit for that season, in combination with the ABs and % vrs lefties, I'd say it seems about right.

[visick]

I'm just looking at his #'s vs. LH's here.

I'm no #'s cruncher, just looking at the overall big picture.

His straight HR chance has the same % as his injury chance. We have all seen injuries during the course of the season. Sometimes a guy with a 2/12 inj. chance can go down 3-4 times during the course of a 162 game season.

It's just hard to imagine a W power guy with straight HOMERUN chances. If you roll a 1-2 vs. LH's 3-4 times or more, you've got a HOMERUN. And with a guy with W power, it just doesn't make sense to me. A split makes more sense to me.

[voovits]

Herr had 304ABs in 88. According to his card, 25% was against lefties, which makes 76ABs. That's 1 homerun for every 76 ABs.

In 87 he had 510 ABs, with his card showing 38% vs lefties. That's 2 HRs in 194 ABs, vs Lefties.

It actually looks like the HR chances on his 87 card are a bit high, but his 88 card seems OK to me.