by Outta Leftfield » Tue May 22, 2007 8:37 pm
{This is kind of an essay, extracted from another thread. Some might find it of value.--OL}
After a few seasons as an 80's manager, I began to think of my teams in terms of what I call "the four battles." Anybody think like this--or something similar? Or am I just crazy?
For me, in trying to construct a winning team, I'm trying to win what I think of as the Four Battles: the hit battle, the walk battle, the HR battle, and the error battle. If a team wins all four battles, or three of them while tying the fourth, it's going to be a winning team.
When you look at your stats page, you can judge each battle by whether your team or your opponents have achieved more in a given category. Who has more hits? That's the hit battle. Who has more walks? That's the walk battle. Who has more HR? That's the HR battle. Who has fewer errors? That's the error battle. You can judge the first three categories from the left/right splits version of your team page--this page lets you see HR and hits (or BA) allowed. For the error battle, you need to look on the fielding stats page. I usually just check on fielding average--am I at, above or below league average? After a while, you can get a feel for looking at the team error total and gauging how you're doing.
The usefulness of this approach is that it allows you to see your production relative to your opponents production against you placed in the context of your parks. Say your team hits 180 HR. Is that good or bad? It depends on your parks and how your opponents are doing. 180 HR in Royals is probably great--esp if your opponents hit 130. You've just won the HR battle. But 180 HR in the Kingdome isn't so hot. If your opponents hit 240, you've just lost the HR battle. If you play in the Kingdome and consistently hit 180 HR, you're not getting it done and need to adjust your strategy, because your opponents are going to win the HR battle.
It's fun to check these stats during the season and it can help you diagnose a team's strengths and weaknesses, but I think it's particularly important when you're designing a team. The mid-season assessment is in part a check on the original team design. I like balance and I think it makes sense to design a team with an eye toward winning all four battles.
Let me start with the walk battle. I focus on this a lot, in part because if you take it seriously you can almost always win it. It's simple, just draft hitters with very high walks and pitchers who rarely give up walks--oh, and avoid giving up intentional walks. Walk rates tend to be pretty consistent across years on players cards. Good year, bad year, BA and HR might vary a lot but walks don't vary that much. The walk battle isn't as important as hits or HR, but if you can almost always win it, why not go for it? If you can consistently outwalk your opponents by 100 or more a year, that's a pretty good edge.
The error battle is also pretty consistently winnable. Just draft guys who don't make many errors, and your going to at or above the league fielding average most of the time. Errors are only a part of fielding, but if you have to play a player with "4" range, try to get one with low errors.
Home runs--again, you can usually win that one if you try. First of all, find pitchers who have relatively few HR on their cards. If you're in a HR park, avoid BPHR. Second, choose hitters who hit a lot of HR. In a homer park, find players with lots of BPHR. Try to get players with some HR pop even at 2B, SS and C. I think it's important to try to win the HR battle in any park, including, say Dodger or Royals. The important thing is not the raw HR total, but your total HR relative to the HR you give up. If you win the HR battle by 50 in Royals, even with 160 HR, you've just won the HR battle.
The trickest category to win is hits (or BA and BA allowed--same difference). I tend to think of it as hits because that makes it a raw number I can easily correlate with walks or HR. Hits allowed are a function of your pitchers, your defensive range, and your parks. There are a lot of factors there and my experience is that this is the hardest category to control both defensively and offensively. Still, if you look for players who hit for good average, and find low WHIP pitchers who give us low hits per inning, you've got a good chance of winning the hit battle. I generally try to avoid Ken Phelps type players, even with their high walks and HR (which I like a lot, believe me), in part because the BA hit is just too harsh for me.
A good team will often win three of the battles decisively and more or less tie the fourth. A great team might well win all four battles decisively--or have such a huge edge in a couple of them that it overrides all else. If your team is losing one of the battles, that can help you diagnose what kind of help you need. I generally try to win all four battles when I draft a team, but if I actually win three of them and hold my own in the fourth, I figure I'm doing pretty well. Even two wins and two ties will probably get you into the playoffs.
I focus on these four battles because I think they're the most important. Steals, doubles, triples, matter to some degree, but not enough to worry about when designing or evaluating a team IMHO. And you can't track doubles or triples allowed anyway with 80's stats.
So there you have it--the four battles. Anyone else think along these lines? If you haven't looked at things from this angle, you might find it useful. If nothing else, it's another tack to take when thinking of a team.