Ken Phelps, etc: A theory on Low BA, High BB, High HR guys

[Outta Leftfield]

Very interesting data. The lack of singles certainly lines up with my eyeball observation, but I hadn't thought to consider total bases. For a powerhitter, Phelps SLG off his card is certainly anemic. But singles are part of SLG and with so few of those, and few doubles, he's got to get it all but homers.

I think this shows that there's a good reason why we've been avoiding Phelps and others of his ilk despite their impressive OPS's. After a brief trial of Phelps in my current season, I went to Kemp, who has been both a lot cheaper and a lot better. :D

[DOUGGRAY]

OBP/SLG is king....I think I have said this many times. ;)

Leave Phelps alone, I seldom can get him.

[DOUGGRAY]

[quote:c2ec033691]but Oliver's total base chances are much greater[/quote:c2ec033691]

TBs dont have BBs included so if you actually add the BBs to it, they arent much different. its the pure HRs and BPHs that I like with Phelps.

[Jablowmi]

Thanks for the clarification, penngray.

[Outta Leftfield]

I guess my concern would be those 10 hit points per card. That's a pretty low number and if he's getting fewer-than-expected hits from the pitcher's card because of the better pitching in the '80s league, that would make for some really low BAs. Penn, how common is it in your experience for Phelps to hit below the Mendoza line?

If afraid that in my experience with this type of hitter sub .200 BA's are more the norm than the exception. And that takes a toll on OBP no matter how many walks you draw. Again, I may be generalizing from too little experience. I guess what IS clear is that this type of hitter has a thin margin of error. Our new revelation of the actual year for each player shows that it's not all that uncommon for a hitter to bat sixty points below their expected BA if they don't get the rolls. If that happens with a .300 hitter, that's .240, which may be OK--given other offensive positives-- but if it happens with a .240 hitter than you're down to .180, which is a whole different story.

[moodinator123]

Once I found Phelps I have tried him alot. On my first team (in Fulton County) I gave him a brief stint, figured he was in his only bad year ( he is a definite 4/5 guy) and dropped him. My second team is also Fulton County and I drafted him...after 66 ABs he seemed to be in his awful year again, but most of my draftees were in their worst year with that team.

I just started 2 other teams...one in Busch (where I got him in the draft and immediately dropped him before waivers) and another in the Kingdome where I drafted him and will keep him for at least 39 games. He should hit around 30 HRs...if not I will never touch him again because there would obviously be a glitch in the way his cards were made. He was obviously a very scary hitter to every right-handed pitcher he faced.

[DOUGGRAY]

OL, I dont care much about BA at all so I wouldnt know. If a players has good SLG and Good OBP I know he is creating team Runs. I know lots of players have bat .210 but still create lots of runs because of Walks and power.

I think looking at BA is the very last thing anyone should care when looking at any baseball stat because it is the most misleading stat.

[DOUGGRAY]

btw, I would only use Phelps as a platoon DH

[honestiago1]

Terry Pendleton's best year for walks (70W 74K) features a strange card versus righgies. His power from the left is on the 1-8, 1-9. Where the singles should be (3-5, 3-6), there are walks instead. As a result, his average versus righties can be VERY low, though the card itself should produce.

I am almost certain that this is the Pendleton card in use in the league both penngray and I are in. I've come very close to attempting to pick up Pendleton, but it's hard to overlook a sub .200 average, especially when I have a poor fielding 3B who is probably going to hit around .270 with just as many walks.

My point? Sometimes you do have to look at batting average (especially in a pitcher's park). After all, you can't advance two bases on a walk.

[DOUGGRAY]

Sure you can ;)

Is a walk equal to a single, of course not but I think its around 80%. Do we want .200 hitters throughout I lineup? Again no but a .200 hitter that will give you .400 OBP and .500+ SLG is gold and you should simply ignore the BA for that players since the OPS is still over .900 and he will produce LOTS of offense.

We have to remember also that in the end its team runs that matter here not individual BAs so ignore the .200 and take the OPS ;)