Ken Phelps, etc: A theory on Low BA, High BB, High HR guys

[Outta Leftfield]

I understand the part about how OBP + SLG creates runs. And I agree that scoring runs is the function of an offense. I'm by no means a fan of BA as a primary measure of offensive ability. But I'm wondering if there isn't a critical point, around about the Mendoza line, where low BA starts to make high OBP or SLG hard to maintain. For example, if a hitter is batting .200, he needs an awful lot of walks to get an OBP of .400. Similarly, since BA is also a factor in slugging, a hitter batting .200 has a hard time cracking .500 SLG. He needs isolated power of .300 to get there.

Another way to put it is that while walks count once in OPS (as part of OBP), singles count twice (as part of OBP and part of SLG). That may overstate the value of the single over the walk, but singles do have both an on base value (OBP) and runner advancement value (SLG), and OPS (OBP + SLG) does seem to work pretty well as an overview of offensive ability. Moreover, a player hitting .200 or below is creating a lot of outs.

So if the Strato mechanism in an '80's context does in fact disadvantage hitters like Phelps in terms of their ability to maintain BA above a certain minimum, it might be a fact worth noting. :wink:

[BRIANCHIVIS]

I have used Phelps a lot. I usually play in Tiger Stadium, and he is a perfect fit.

I have experienced lower averages with him, and that is true of all hitter I get because of the ballpark effects. Tiger stadium routinely turns 300 hitters into 280 hitters.

I have found him to be very productive. The only problem is that he is so slow on the bases. He almost had to bat 5th.

For the money, he is a great value. You will need to platoon him. He has always been productive for me. Its hard to beat the 400 OBP.

I do think that some of the strato cards are out of alignment. I know some of the players that do not have a lot of playing time usually perform worse than real life. The cards don't always match retrosheet.

[Outta Leftfield]

It may well be a park issue as much as anything. I tend to prefer neutral (Yankee/Memorial) or pitcher's parks (Dodger/Royals), and maybe that's not Phelps's best habitat?

I may also be unreasonably bent out of shape because Phelps hit .136 for me with 1 HR in 66 AB and that Ron Kittle hit .159 for me--with 28 HR-- in 345 AB (for an OPS of .652). Turns out Kittle was in his .215 BA year--this was in a theme league with a 4M salary cap, so hitters like Kittle got more attention than usual. So maybe a .159 BA is in line with expectations, but I'm wondering if he didn't take a worse than usual hit on BA (.15-.30 appears more typical) because of the way the Strato card mechanism works.

I'm not sure the Phelps type will ever be my favorite type of hitter, but a nice thing about the 80's game is that we all have options and can build teams to suit our own predilictions. OBP is a very big priority for me (my top priority on offense) but I think I'll look to guys for whom BA is a significant part of the OBP. :D

[YountFan]

[quote:ecc90134e2]Moreover, a player hitting .200 or below is creating a lot of outs. [/quote:ecc90134e2]

Yes, they create outs, but if they have a high OBA that are creating less outs than a lower OBA. It seems not to make sense, but OPS is the ultimate measure with the best corralation to run scoring.

If player A's OBA is .400 he is making an out 60% of the time. Player B's OBA is .325 he is making an out 67.5% of the time. Who is making more outs. BA isn't really a measure of outs, OBA is.

I would perfer a high BA with a high OBA player, but SOM, like baseball is all about getting on base. Get on base and anything can happen!

[honestiago1]

I would also point out that low BA hitters aren't good at advancing runners. Thus, if that is your game (it tends to be mine), it isn't a good idea to have too many. I'd be curious to see, too, how many hitters with .200 avg.'s actually have .400 OBP's. I imagine they are out there, but I doubt they're the rule.

[Outta Leftfield]

[quote:4971bb8902="honestiago"] I'd be curious to see, too, how many hitters with .200 avg.'s actually have .400 OBP's. I imagine they are out there, but I doubt they're the rule.[/quote:4971bb8902]

This is precisely the point I've been trying to make. The forces in the 80's game that would appear (in my limited experience) to drive the BA of Phelps-type hitters down from .250 toward .200--or even below--would appear at the same time to drive their OBP down from .400 to .350 (or even below). And .350 OBP hitters are a dime a dozen in the '80s game. In a couple of cases my entire team has averaged an OBP above .350 and several other teams have approached it. The point I've been trying to make is that a fifty point dip in BA means a fifty point dip in OBP--and a similar fifty point dip in SLG.

I would certainly revise my opinion if it could be shown that Phelps and others like him post OBPs at or approaching .400 with some consistency in in the '80s game (as opposed to merely on their cards.) :wink:

[ROBERTLIND]

If you believe the folks in BaseballProspectus then a walk is worth .667 a single, .5 a double, .375 a triple and .3 a homer. I personally believe that given two players with equivalent OPS, the one that has a higher batting average is the better offensive player.

In a pitcher's park an 8 diamond player will lose about 18 points in on base/ba and 74 points in SLG because of those homers being outs. This is fairly significant, turning a .240 .370 500 hitter into a .222 .352 .426 while that high BA guy will likely not lose anything.

[YountFan]

[quote:288edcc99e]And .350 OBP hitters are a dime a dozen in the '80s game[/quote:288edcc99e]
They are not that common. In fact they can be darn hard to find sometimes.

[Outta Leftfield]

[quote:9e5616778e="YountFan"][quote:9e5616778e]And .350 OBP hitters are a dime a dozen in the '80s game[/quote:9e5616778e]
They are not that common. In fact they can be darn hard to find sometimes.[/quote:9e5616778e]

Well, on my last seven teams, including two still active, here's my count on those teams of the number of hitters with significant playing time who had (or have) OBP's of .350 or above:

10/8/9/5/8/7/6 (most recent teams are listed first)

So in my experience you can get +.350 OBP's if you work at it. The team with five such players was the first budgetball league, which allowed only one stud hitter over 4M. But then again, the team with 10 +.350 guys is also working under the same restrictions. Platooning seems to help.

As you can see, I really care about OBP. I'm just wondering if players like Phelps are the best way to get it in the context of the 80's league. :D

[seanreflex]

on my completed teams (excluding my very first two Strat 80's teams that were absolute disasters) I average about 6 players per team that are aobve .350 OBP. My team OBP is close to .340 overall (including alot of whacky theme leagues).

I tend to really watch my splits against RHP and LHP, and I tailor my lineups against righties and lefties based on OBP primarily -- can't score if you cant get on, right?