Burleson vs. Metzger

[childsmwc]

A SS X roll has a probability of 7/216 which over 40 PA's a game works out to about the 1.3 that was simmed.

What people don't realize is that the impact of poor defense is exponential. For every X roll that is missed, that out now has to be replaced. So lets say player 1 misses 10 X rolls (errors/singles doesn't matter much at SS) over player 2 during the season.

Not only has player 1 allowed 10 additional players on base due to errors, the team must now replace 10 more outs. If an average team has an OBP of .333, then you actually have to face another 15 batters to make those additional 10 outs. So in addition, to the 10 players you let on base due to errors another 5 are going to get walks or hits, while your team gets the required outs to finish a game.

From a value standpoint, if a hitter averages 700 PA's only 350 of those are coming from his card. So a SS that gets 180 X chances has about a 2:1 offense to defense contribution.

When you compare that to other positions the ratio can be closer to 5:1, so a fair amount of value is tied up in defense for a SS, plus their card is involved in more plays than any other position.

The nice thing about good defense in the mystery game is it reduces the risk of the card since there is no mystery for good defense. So in the case of Metzger, who has no offense you know probably 90% of his salary is tied up in defense. You have effectively removed the mystery out of the game when you use Metzger.

[LMBombers]

There never has been a mystery about Metzger's contributions at the plate. The are offensive. :P

If all you want is defense without regard to offense so you can spend money elsewhere why don't you just use Brinkman who costs less than half as much? That will give you another 1M on hitting or pitching (or more defense).

[Larryrickenbacker]

LMBombers,

If Metzger were unavailable, your idea about using Brinkman (or perhaps Maxville) as a defensive "econo-shortstop" would be a valid choice. Indeed, I'd likely consider it, rather than spend big bucks for Burleson, Concepcion or Belanger.
Now if Metzger is available, his glove is worth the extra million, instead of the defensively weaker Brinkman or Maxville-YMMV.

To the moderators, would this very informative thread be a worthy candidate for a "Thread of the year" or perhaps even a "sticky"?

Larry

[durantjerry]

Brinkjman as SS on my very first team. I've never used him since, though.
[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/70s/team/team_other.html?user_id=814[/url]

[The Senators]

This past Tuesday morning's draft had me losing out on Metzger as my SS. I had him listed 4th on my draft list. I think the Metzger bandwagon is picking up steam. I wound up with DeJesus as my primary SS (anybody EVER have good luck with this one?, I haven't.) and ol' reliable Eddie Brinkman. I had a championship season where Brinkman, batting mostly 7th through 9th, got more RBIs that Clemente who batted mostly 3rd all season. Granted, the oft-injured Clemente misses quite a few games during the season, but this shouldn't happen.

[Larryrickenbacker]

Howdy,

Recently I drafted Metzger in the 4th round and discovered that someone already got him! And I always land Metzger with my 4th round pick..not this time! Forgive my ignorance, but it looks like I helped drive up the value of this semi-forgotten defensive whiz.

Larry