Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

Looking at the Ted Simmons thread, there was a comment about stolen bases and your catcher's arm.
Just thought I'd offer a few views on the stolen base.
Personally, I think its value as an offensive weapon is minimal.
First, there are few players who are bona fide stolen base threats.
Second, the use of a stolen base as a weapon is dependent on the player's ability to get on base. If you don't get on, you can't steal.
Next, most often the runner will steal second. So, the stolen base threat is eliminated when second is already occupied.
So right off the bat, the chance of a stolen base having anything other than a situational impact on a game is minimal.
Most important, it increases your chances of making an out. With so much of the game weighted towards players making outs (players are out more often than they are on), anything that increase the risk of outs is a negative. Typically, it seems stolen bases are successful about 2 out of 3 times,which means the rest of the time the runner is out.
This is why I also try to avoid bunting and hit and run plays. Trading a sure out for a base doesn't make sense when you have a 3 in 10 chance of getting a base and an additional runner, plus the chance of moving the runner anyway making a normal.
Don't confuse stolen bases with running. Ricky Henderson's real value, at least to me, is the fact he gets on base and has the speed to take an extra base on a hit. His stolen bases are a bonus.
I think a good running team will score extra runs.
Anyone have a positive experience with a team with a lot of stolen bases?

mm

I agree, and always have. Unless you can be safe on 75% on the SB attempts you're losing ground. The SB is exciting, but not that valuable. In todays power game it really doen't mean much. I rather have fast runners than base stealers. Earl Weaver was right.

I lump the SB with the save as a not important stat.

Those familiar with total average will note that a player getting CS gives his team a double whammy, not only by making an out, but by removing a base runner.

I like the stolen base, but realize it is a weapon best used in a close game, later innings. It is also a great jump start for an inning, if the #2 hitter is a lefty, and adept at contact (hitting the ball no the 2B side of the IF). Fast runners DO create more runs, on the whole, than slowpokes. A fast runner who hits for a low average should be more effective than a plodder who also hits for low average.