Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

Without looking at player price, I am trying to develop a means to determine if you will get the expected production from players using any of their given years.

I am using a different method for hitters and pitchers obviously, and I do know that my logic is not an exact science or others may disagree entirely on how I am looking at this; however, I wanted some generic feedback.

Over the course of 65+ completed seasons, I have imported my end of year rosters and their productions as well as revealed years. Using their real life stats of the revealed years, I am comparing their production in SOM and comming up with either a positive or negative number. Positive numbers indicating that they outperformed their stat lines and negative meaning they fell short.

For pitchers, I am done entering data. I add the ERA and WHIP together with the difference of Wins-Losses divided by 10 and Saves divided by 100. I then take that number and subtract it from their actual ERA and WHIP added. This discounts there actual win, loss and save total and adds some merit to how those pitchers performed on my team in terms of Wins. Losses and Saves.

For hitters, it is much easier. I do a straight up adding of the AVG, SLG and OBP and subtract those same numbers from their real numbers for that year. This help eliminate the AB issues even for subs or platoon players.

I'll show examples in the next post.

[b:a450650622][i:a450650622]PITCHERS[/i:a450650622][/b:a450650622]

Check out Saberhagen first.

[code:1:a450650622]Year W L S IP H ER BB SO ERA WHIP Value E.R.A. W.H.I.P
'85 15 16 0 260.1 279 139 66 173 4.81 1.33 (2.31) 2.87 1.06
'85 15 14 0 262.0 282 129 43 186 4.43 1.24 (1.64) 2.87 1.06
'85 16 16 0 270.2 326 154 60 170 5.12 1.43 (2.62) 2.87 1.06
'87 17 11 0 291.1 277 128 83 180 3.96 1.24 (0.08) 3.36 1.16
'89 21 10 0 306.1 259 102 71 195 3.00 1.08 0.14 2.16 0.96
'89 18 13 0 279.2 267 133 63 220 4.28 1.18 (1.84) 2.16 0.96
[/code:1:a450650622]

I only have 1 positive year using this formula on a 1989 card.

Now let's look at Danny Jackson:

[code:1:a450650622]Year W L S IP H ER BB SO ERA WHIP Value E.R.A. W.H.I.P
'85 11 13 0 239.1 258 119 90 127 4.48 1.45 (1.34) 3.42 1.37
'85 11 16 0 226.2 247 106 79 121 4.21 1.44 (1.36) 3.42 1.37
'86 14 13 0 271.2 251 98 115 160 3.25 1.35 0.08 3.20 1.38
'87 23 7 0 277.0 224 109 138 179 3.54 1.31 2.23 4.02 1.46
'88 17 9 0 261.1 245 102 71 159 3.51 1.21 (0.13) 2.73 1.06
'88 20 16 0 292.2 212 103 115 173 3.17 1.12 (0.10) 2.73 1.06
[/code:1:a450650622]

Generally speaking, he will perform to his card more often than Saberhagen. Doesn't look like fun data eh? Well here is one of my favorite pitchers who people say is over-priced.

[code:1:a450650622]Year W L S IP H ER BB SO ERA WHIP Value E.R.A. W.H.I.P
'87 12 12 0 203.0 194 88 89 112 3.90 1.39 0.19 4.09 1.39
'87 13 13 0 249.0 270 144 109 110 5.20 1.52 (1.29) 4.09 1.34
'87 12 10 0 163.1 164 79 77 86 4.35 1.48 (0.15) 4.09 1.39
'89 10 8 0 189.0 196 84 54 104 4.00 1.32 (0.32) 3.49 1.31
'89 14 9 0 211.2 218 86 70 126 3.66 1.36 0.28 3.49 1.31
'89 12 8 0 220.2 215 96 85 144 3.92 1.36 (0.08) 3.49 1.31
'91 9 9 0 189.0 205 79 38 86 3.76 1.29 (0.70) 3.20 1.15
'91 13 8 0 232.1 220 89 41 103 3.45 1.12 0.28 3.20 1.15
[/code:1:a450650622]

That is Zane Smith. You get his stats (or close to it) every year.

Hmm. Formatting issues abound. I will look at this and try to clean it up some.

I may just post PDF versions of these spreadsheets on my webspace later today.

I think the raw data you are compiling is very intriguing, especially if we could see the ballpark the player played home games in.

even without the ballpark it is interesting but as we all know ballpark is one of the factors that will effect how close a player gets to the actual stats of the year of his card. Team defense will also have a major impact on a pitchers' ability to perform to the card.

I do not much care for including won - loss data in the analysis since that is dependent on strength of opponents and team offense.

But if you post the data i'll definitely check it out with interest.

Yeah. Formatting is an issue for these forums, so it will be easier to publish this to the web tonight and then post links here with the logic used.

Just an FYI for a teaser. Oscar Gamble has never had a negative year, regardless of card revealed.

[i:3f525a07bc]Well here is one of my favorite pitchers who people say is over-priced.
[/i:3f525a07bc]


Zane is over priced, sure he performs to his stats but no 5+ mil pitcher should have an average whip above 1.30.

Sykes, pretty cool results to see which players perform to their actually historical stats but it doesnt correlate back to the price tag incorrectly assigned to some of the players.

[i:197829a9b0]especially if we could see the ballpark the player played home games in.
[/i:197829a9b0]

Thats easy for sykes :D 99% Murphy Stadium.

Ratio is more like 55% Jack Murphy. :P

The results are interesting and I may one day expand it out to include all teams that I can get my hands on to expand the data.

Another player who over performs almost 100% of the time is Kevin McReynolds. Should make for some fun discussion in the next 48 hours or so once I publish this all.

I'm 75% done with the hitters too and will publish what I have so far and complete the update tomorrow. I should have all team links updated by early next week.

I'd love to see the website. Is there a link?

I'll have a website link once I upload the data tonight.

I finished the hitters in time to get them up tonight. I will likely replace the column of the "80s' team" with the ballpark instead. People don't need links to my teams. They are more interested in the parks and the results.

I'll create a new thread once I get the stuff published.