Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

I have Ellis Valentine in an 80's league. Through 100 AB's, he is doing great. 360 avg, 650 slug. 71 of his AB's are vs RHP, he is hitting 366 with 662 slug and 4 BB's vs RHP.

I assumed I have his best year, 1980.

Then, in a game, with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd, he got injured on a fly out. His injury reveal for 1980 shows a fly out with a clutch sign. The only injury year with just a regular fly out is 1979, a year in which Valentine cannot walk and cannot hit right hand pitching. Is it possible the computer missed the clutch situation or have I been getting incredibly lucky with Valentine through 100 ABs?

If it was a clutch situation, he would have definitely gotten a hit in that situation. Assuming you didn't make a mistake, you have his 1979 card for sure.

actually it's his /80 card isn't it? His /79 card is a fly out but no clutch attached.

[quote:59987da840="pyramid1"]actually it's his /80 card isn't it? His /79 card is a fly out but no clutch attached.[/quote:59987da840]

He flied out in a clutch situation. If it was his 80 card, the flyout would have turned into a hit.

sorry. I miss read the post. I thought it was a clutch hit he was looking for. I guess that's what happens when you put in a 12 hour shift and then try to put in your two cents worth. It is his /79 card after all.

[quote:4680a92a1a="chrisfu"]The only injury year with just a regular fly out is 1979, a year in which Valentine cannot walk...[/quote:4680a92a1a]

Actually any player can walk since half the rolls are on the pitcher's card.

Ok, I have to have Ellis 1979, but he continues to tear it up vs RHP, 101 AB's, .337 avg/.624 slug pct vs righties, a little better than that in fewer AB's vs lefties-though that would not be surprising. Meanwhile I have Von Hayes with injury reveal showing me I have his 1989 card and he is hitting .196 with a .396 slug in 199 AB's.

When you have injury reveals and players still overperform or underperform, how long do you keep playing them? Or, do you not, do you just dump over performers because its luck and stick with underperformers because they will eventually come through?

[quote:3369bbc135="chrisfu"]Ok, I have to have Ellis 1979, but he continues to tear it up vs RHP, 101 AB's, .337 avg/.624 slug pct vs righties, a little better than that in fewer AB's vs lefties-though that would not be surprising. Meanwhile I have Von Hayes with injury reveal showing me I have his 1989 card and he is hitting .196 with a .396 slug in 199 AB's.

When you have injury reveals and players still overperform or underperform, how long do you keep playing them? Or, do you not, do you just dump over performers because its luck and stick with underperformers because they will eventually come through?[/quote:3369bbc135]

logic says you go with the cards no matter what because it's always rolling on that card, theres no real "slump" happening other than improbable rolls(but obviously not impossible). If I had a hitter who had 50 homers and a .300 average and found out near the end of the season it's not a great year for him, and there is a guy on free agency whos year i know and he has a better card than the guy with 50 homers, i drop the guy with 50 homers immediately before the playoffs because the odds favor the guy with the better card. Gotta play the odds... it's a game of probabilities.