Does HAL really give valuable info when he picks lineup?

[the icemen]

I let HAL do my lineup in a series hoping to get info on what 80's game card I may have...I have been away from the game for 3 years and forget some strategies I used to use. I let HAL do muy line up in a series and it was all ove r the place

here is my lineup he used vs lefties
K.Daniels DH 5 1 4 2 .833
A.Thornton 1B 4 1 1 1 .267 B-G.Young PR,CF 0 0 0 0 .273
R.Deer RF 5 0 0 0 .059
C-W.Aikens 1B 0 0 0 0 ----
R.Henderson LF 4 0 3 0 .333
R.Ready 3B 5 0 0 1 .294
E.Whitt C 4 1 2 1 .500
I.Dejesus SS 5 1 2 1 .467
D.Murphy CF 2 1 0 0 .333
A-W.Randolph PH 1 1 1 0 .357
D-S.Kemp RF 1 0 0 0 .000
J.Remy 2B 3 0 0 0 .000
he started Remy over Randolph at 2b...maybe a sign
did not start harrah...started daniels over him at dh and put ready at 3rd
started whitt over laudner.

VS RHP he started thornton over Aikens randolph over remy
kemp did not start...instead HAL started Deer

I don't get it...randolph vs rhp but not lhp
remy vs lhp but not rhp...harrah vs rhp but not lhp...daniels instaed?

Can anyone clear this up or am I wasting my time...HAL is just an idiot if left alone.

Iceman

[ROBERTLATORRE]

There was a lot of debate about it in another thread a few weeks back.

I think the only thing I've learned reliably is on players with an extreme good or bad card compared to the other 4.

The two best examples I have recently are:

HAL sat George Brett against LHP and RHPs. I cut him and about 30 or so games later an injury revealed his significantly worst card (1974 in the 70s) for another manager.

HAL batted Doug Flynn 2nd vs LHPs and it turned out to be his best card (1976 in the 70s) which was a great value for the money.

If a player has cards that don't really stand out by an extreme variance from the others, I haven't gained too much insight from him. You will find managers though that give him a lot of weight and they are VERY successful managers.

I know...no help...LOL.

[Paul5757]

You should take into account who was pitching too. The pitcher's card affects 50% of the outcomes.

[The Conndor]

Personally I gain more insight by how HAL uses the bullpen and shuffles the lineup for injury replacements than by how it picks a lineup if I don't pick one. There can be any number of factors for why HAL puts a certain guy at a certain position in the lineup (who the other pitcher is, the ballpark, what other guys are available who can play that position, defense, etc.).... I don't know which of these factors HAL counts and which don't.

[the icemen]

thanks for the help but...

What do I learn from Hal starting Jery Remy vs LHP...i think Tudor over Randolph.

and then starting randolph in game 2 vs rhp over Remy?

I guess I have a good Remy card? Good Randolph card?

I think I can speculate that HAL loves Daniels as he started him in all 3 games incl vs LHP.

He had Harrah vs rhp so that could mean something good but sat him vslhp.


I do watch what he does with pitching and try to learn from that but hitting is just puzzling. What would you determine from the scenarios described. He also started Deer in all 3 games but sat Aikens and Kemp.
Does this mean good deer card or bad kemp and Aikens? Kemp pinch hit in the game and hit a grand slam to win the game in the 9th.

Love the mystery card but hate HAL

[Paul5757]

[quote:28c4534acd="the icemen"]thanks for the help but...

What do I learn from Hal starting Jery Remy vs LHP...i think Tudor over Randolph.

and then starting randolph in game 2 vs rhp over Remy?

I guess I have a good Remy card? Good Randolph card?

I think I can speculate that HAL loves Daniels as he started him in all 3 games incl vs LHP.

He had Harrah vs rhp so that could mean something good but sat him vslhp.


I do watch what he does with pitching and try to learn from that but hitting is just puzzling. What would you determine from the scenarios described. He also started Deer in all 3 games but sat Aikens and Kemp.
Does this mean good deer card or bad kemp and Aikens? Kemp pinch hit in the game and hit a grand slam to win the game in the 9th.

Love the mystery card but hate HAL[/quote:28c4534acd]

From one or two games, I don't think you can draw anything positive. You have to look at who was pitching. (Here's an extreme example...say you have a hitter's card that has no hits vs. RHP, your opponent starts a RHP whose card shows nothing but singles vs. RH hitters. Your RH hitter might be started because he'd basically have a 50/50 shot a single even though he has no hits on his card vs. RHP.)

My recollection is that Tudor has one year where he kills righties. That [b:28c4534acd][i:28c4534acd]might[/i:28c4534acd][/b:28c4534acd] explain why HAL started lefties against him. Likewise, there are righties who kill lefties...that again [b:28c4534acd][i:28c4534acd]might[/i:28c4534acd][/b:28c4534acd] explain why HAL chose Randolph.

If you focus too much on your own cards' possibilities, you could make a mistake. It's hard with the mystery card...there are 25 possible matchups to consider with each pitcher/hitter combo. (That makes it hard to conclusively learn anything from 1 or 2 games.)

I wouldn't cut anyone based on what HAL does, but I'd keep it in the back of my mind when considering whether to cut a player.

[voovits]

Making decisions based on HALs lineups is not necessarily a bad thing, but there are a ton of factors to consider.
First off the opposing pitching issue could be solved by checking out more than just one game. If you're noticing HAL tends to use the same lineup regardless of the pitcher, then there's your "regular" lineup. If he makes a change or 2 for a certain pitcher, then you have a pitcher who leans heavily to the R or L.
Second thing is when analyzing a lineup, I take the 1 and 2 slots and totally disregard them. I have yet to figure out the reasoning for HAL to use players in those positions. I've seen HAL bat Dale Murphy 84, Bill Doran 87, Tony Fernandez 88, Mark McGwire 89 and Willie McGee 86 all bat second. I've seen similar inconsistencies for batting leadoff.
Basically from that point on, the 3rd hitter is better then the 4th hitter, the 4th is better than the 5th and so on down to last. You'll get people arguing against that statement, but it is absolutely true. The problem is that it's true in HAL logic, which does not always translate to human logic.
There are lots of factors that determines who HAL bats ahead of another.
HAL loves homeruns and he favors HR hitters more, but you can't go by that alone. Overall on base percentage, extra base hits in general and even walks factor into it. Lastly, don't forget the players power rating. HAL strongly prefers batting N power higher than W power players. Though I originally though that HAL will never bat a W higher than an N, I learned that in extreme cases he will.
Example: Vrs righties, HAL hit 84 Pena (N power) ahead of 85 McGee (W power). However in my most recent league. HAL hit Wade Boggs (83/84/85 - W power) ahead of Tony Pena (82/84 - N power) vrs Righties
As far as determining who starts over who, L/R splits factor into it, but HAL strongly favors good defense to good offense. I can't tell you how many times I've had HAL start Pat Sheridan (always on my draft card) in the outfield over a far more offensively capable 3 or 4 range defender, and even some 2 range defenders with worse throwing arms.

I could drone on and on about HALs tendencies and things to look for, but the bottom line is that though you could certainly gather some useful information, you can't rely solely on what he does as your indicator.

[the icemen]

thanks to all 4 the advice

[tkkjlsoup]

Early in the season I like to leave just one or two spots open instead of all 9. This helps you compare various "Player A vs. Player B" options.

You can't get much reliable info if Player A and Player B bat from different sides, but if they are both RHH or both LHH, it takes the pitching equation out and you can focus on who is the better player against that type of pitcher.

But you rarely have perfect information from only a few games because you have to watch out for ballpark effect -- given two RHHs with equal defensive skills at a given position, one hitter might be better in Kingdome and the other might be better in Oakland. Obviously you get better information along these lines when you are playing at home.

The downside of this strategy is that it can help good opponents narrow down/figure out what cards their pitchers have.

Also if HAL consistently uses someone as a pinch hitter, he is trying to tell you something -- just as if he consistently pulls a specific player for a pinch hitter in tight situations without any justifiable L/R split excuse.