Archive of SportingNews.com's old SOM Baseball forum

Now that we know what card all players are on at season's end I was curious to see what cards guys get regularly. So here's what I have...sample is only using my 35 finished teams and this is only the 25 highest priced hitters but its a least a 1st look into how often cards get chosen...I'm going to review some other players who have some true feast and famine seasons to see how often cards get picked...

Morgan...72(6) 73(7) 76(10) 77(7) 78(5)
Bench...70(12) 72(5) 74(8) 75(4) 77(6)
Cedeno...72(7) 73(7) 74(6) 76(7) 79(8)
Jackson...69(8) 70(4) 73(8) 75(8) 77(7)
Schmidt...74(6) 76(7) 77(8) 78(7) 79(7)
Grich...72(7) 73(13) 74(6) 75(6) 79(3)
Yastrzemski...70(6) 73(6) 74(10) 75(5) 77(8)
Clemente...68(11) 69(4) 70(4) 71(8) 72(8)
Lynn...76(3) 77(5) 78(11) 79(6) 80(10)
Bonds...70(8) 71(6) 73(5) 76(7) 77(9)
Aaron...69(4) 70(13) 71(5) 73(8) 74(5)
Winfield...75(5) 77(5) 78(5) 79(12) 80(8)
Smith...71(6) 72(5) 73(9) 77(6) 78(9)
Brett...74(7) 76(2) 77(8) 79(8) 80(10)
Stargell...69(6) 70(11) 72(6) 73(3) 75(9)
Allen...70(4) 71(11) 72(8) 74(7) 75(5)
Hernandez...76(7) 77(6) 78(8) 79(11) 80(3)
Thorton...74(8) 75(7) 77(9) 78(2) 79(9)
Fisk...72(6) 73(6) 76(9) 77(9) 78(5)
Carew...71(6) 74(6) 75(4) 76(14) 77(5)
Otis...70(9) 73(7) 74(6) 75(7) 76(6)
Murray...77(3) 78(6) 79(8) 80(12) 81(6)
Rice...75(7) 76(5) 77(5) 78(11) 79(7)
Foster...71(4) 76(8) 77(8) 78(7) 79(8)
Parker...74(3) 75(9) 76(2) 78(13) 79(8)

More to come with some observations...

I did the same thing with a select group of 80s players. I have 19 seasons done, and a 20th league is ending soon. I was going to wait until I got 20 full seasons, then post in the 80s board.
I find the breakdowns quite interesting, especially Brett and Parker getting 1976 only 2 times each.

For me, through 19 seasons, I have 2 players who have yet to get a specific season at all.

[quote:396293ae6d]I have 2 players who have yet to get a specific season at all. [/quote:396293ae6d]
20 seasons is not enough to judge randomness, but the fact that some are not used actually proves it is random to me in this small sample. Roll a die 20 times. You may not get all 6 numbers, or even 5 of the 6. But then you may too.

[quote:396293ae6d]I find the breakdowns quite interesting, especially Brett and Parker getting 1976 only 2 times each. [/quote:396293ae6d]
Someone else may have gotten it 7 times in 20 seasons. Your sample it too small to make any conclusions.

The seasons are not distributed evenly, but randomly assigned. Therefore if you have a Morgan 75 in league A, you have the same 20% chance on Morgan 75 in league B.

Over 1,000 season I would expect it to even out and it does. If you look at my database and look at the most used guys, excedpt for the bad season the abs are in the same range. And these are only completed seasons

Rose from the 70's
71 - 52,774
72 - 53,642
75 - 47,152
76 - 59,907 .
78 - 42,884 . .

Raines from the 80s
83 - 119,798
84 - 122,820 .
86 - 139,135
87 - 129,771
89 - 125,129

I know Apple had to adjust the shuffle feature of the iPod because it was truely random and because it would play 3 Stones songs in a 10 song block made people think it was not random. But just because you just played a Stones song the chances of the next on being the Stones id pretty strong assuming you have lots of Stones loaded on your iPod.

The problem with random is that is it random and humans see patterns in everything.

[quote:37c8fe237d="YountFan"]
The problem with random is that is it random and humans see patterns in everything.[/quote:37c8fe237d]

Of course I know it's random.
I know the 4 straight seasons where I got Chris Bando 84 is random.
I know the 19 (maybe 20) straight seasons without Garvey 85 or Stieb 84 is a result of complete randomness.
There were a handful of other statistical oddities too, but you are right, statistically it'll all even out in the long haul.

The issue is that I just like to analyze data, be it random or not, and it's always fun to speculate.

I'm curious, now that all the players seasons are available, if there is a way to scan the FA pool of every season to get a grand total number of times a players season has come up.

[quote:ba7c99ff31="YountFan"]The problem with random is that is it random and humans see patterns in everything.[/quote:ba7c99ff31]

Which is why Las Vegas and Atlantic City will always have the lights on!

[quote:9e5afab98a]I'm curious, now that all the players seasons are available, if there is a way to scan the FA pool of every season to get a grand total number of times a players season has come up. [/quote:9e5afab98a]
There is little point in doing that. The sample size would be in the thousands so everyone would hover near 20% on their seasons. +- 1% I would guess