level playing field? I think NOT!

Our Mystery Card games - The '70s Game, Back to the '80s, Back to the '90s

level playing field? I think NOT!

Postby pyramid1 » Sun Nov 07, 2010 9:11 am

How would you guys like to have this team playing in Wrigley Field? Bill Wegman on his /92 card with a WHIP of 1.17? For me he finished with a WHIP of 1.44. Frank Viola on his /87 card with a WHIP of1.18? For me a WHIP of 1.32. Jim Gott on his /88 card with a WHIP of 1.16? For me a WHIP of 1.35. OK, I know what you're going to say. I'm playing in Wrigley Field. I should expect this. I also have Ted Simmons on his /80 card with an .avg of .303. For me .273. Domaso Garcia's /80 card avg of .278 batted .245 for me. If I've lost anybody yet please read on. IT GETS BETTER!!!!!! Paul Molitor is on his /91 card where he had a .325 average and an OBP of .395. For me he hit .284 and an OBP of .342. How about Ricky Henderson on his /83 card when he had an avg. of .292 and an OBP of .411. For me he ended up with an avg of .250 and an OBP of.372. Now for the kicker. Ready for this? Just before the 142 game mark I picked up Jim Rice as a free agent. For me he had 134 at bats and had an outstanding .227 avg with an OBP of a whopping .315. Yup you guessed it! He was on his /79 season where he actually had a .325 avg and an OBP of .382. Is there any wonder I finished 23 games back in my divison?
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Postby LMBombers » Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:09 am

You can't expect a player to have the same stats as on his card for a myriad of factors.

One such factor is parks. Pitchers with low WHIPs generally have more BPHR which are not the best for Wrigley for example.

Throw out the actual stats and simply look at the cards and how they might do in your park. SOM is played using the cards, not any actual stats. It would be too easy to say I have a player who hit .330 so at the end of the season he will have a .330 BA for my team too. With all the possible variables that is not a realistic expectation.
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Postby MtheB » Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:24 am

and like real life, there are cases where a group of very production players, have off-seasons in the same year.

example:
1973 Atlanta Braves
Aaron .301 BA, 40 HRs,
Dave Johnson: .270, 43 HRs, 99 RBIs
Darrell Evans: .281, 41 HRS, 104 RBIs
Mike Lum: .294, 16 HRs, 82 RBIs
D. Baker: .288, 21 HRs, 99 RBIs

Now if you would have selected those guys in the off-season for the upcoming year, you would have thought you had a high powered offense.
Look what happened:

1974 Atlanta Braves:
Aaron .268 BA, 20 HRs, 69 RBIs
Dave Johnson: .251, 15 HRs, 62 RBIs
Darrell Evans: .240, 25 HRS, 79 RBIs
Mike Lum: .233, 11 HRs, 50 RBIs
D. Baker: .256, 20 HRs, 69 RBIs

Now, sure you could say that Aaron was at the end of his career, but all those other guys were not--and look at the huge team drop off in BA, HRS, and RBIs.
Same players, same stadium, playing the same teams.
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Postby voovits » Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:53 am

It happens top everyone eventually. I've had entire teams underperform and finish poorly before.
I'd like to say it'll balance out eventually, but it never seems to do that, but it's always a surprise when you get that 1 or 2 guys on your roster who hits the lucky rolls.
I picked up Harmon Killebrew as a late season acquisition, and he did fairly well. In 100 ABs, he hit .240 with 11HR, 26RBI, and a .873OPS, and did not get hurt. End of season reveal was 74.
This was in Shea Stadium too, where it's only 1-8 BPHR. That same season I had Mike Ivie of all people lead the league in HRs with 55.

The thing is, people hardly notice when a guy does better than he should, and then always seem to notice when they underperform.

Another thing is that with experience, it gets easier to identify the bad cards, making it tougher for the bad players to have a shot at overperforming. It's easier for a .230 hitter to overperform and hit .270 than a .340 hitter to overperform and hit .380. I have no math to back up this statement, but it just seems to make sense to me.

Just keep on playing and having fun, and you'll win your share of games, and you'll have your piece of the statistical pie.
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Postby pyramid1 » Sun Nov 07, 2010 11:12 am

I don't expect the same stats . I expect some level of reality. You're telling me this makes sense? OK. I have 8 credits left in the 80s leagues and 7 credits left in the 70s leagues. After that I'm done.
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Postby JONCHUCKERY » Sun Nov 07, 2010 1:03 pm

To me batting averages are a lousy way to gauge performance...too many factors involved including ballpark (both yours and div), quality of pitching, etc. However I think OPS is the best way to gauge...I don't always expect a .320 hitter to hit .320 but an .850 OPS guy should be in that realm not 100-150 pts one way or the other. Thats when things seem unbalanced
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Postby coyote303 » Sun Nov 07, 2010 1:46 pm

News flash! If your hitter has a .303 batting average on his card and he hits .303, he had a better-than-expected year. So if he hits .273, that's about what you can expect.

In all but $60 million leagues, the pitchers are better than hitters faced in real life and the hitters are better than the pitchers faced. It's impossible for players, on average, to duplicate their real-life levels in this or any simulation under these conditions. It's basic math.
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Facing L/R Pitching

Postby wesleyeugeneclark » Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:30 pm

Unless the splits are close to the back of the card for that year you will not get the same results, and even then it would be similar results. If a 2L guy has 70% righties faced on his card and in the simulated season he faces 80% righties, he will have a poorer year in the simulated season. On the other hand, if he faces 60% righties he has a chance to overperform. It can be maddening, but remember, this games all about the dice rolls. All you can do is try and maximize the % in your favor.
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Postby LMBombers » Sun Nov 07, 2010 4:05 pm

[quote:d968d9d170="pyramid1"]OK. I have 8 credits left in the 80s leagues and 7 credits left in the 70s leagues. After that I'm done.[/quote:d968d9d170]

If you don't like the mystery games email TSN and transfer your credits to some other game if that is what you are getting at.
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Postby pyramid1 » Sun Nov 07, 2010 4:53 pm

nope, not what I'm getting at . From the replies my season is not too bad huh? OK. Fine. I guess I'll just roll over and take it like a man.
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