Do you let HAL set your initial lineups?

[coyote303]

A manager in a current 90s game proclaimed he had the best cards for three of his 1-year-wonder players. He was able to figure this out from the very first series by letting HAL set the lineups.

I am really feeling naive if that is what the mystery game comes down to--letting HAL set your initial lineups--and if everyone else but me is doing this. I guess I should have known this might be standard practice when I once saw Frank Howard get dropped without a single at bat in an old 70s league.

Is HAL that good at setting lineups by using information not otherwise available to us human managers?

[Ducky]

I do not buy into the theory that HAL is a better manager than a human that really studies the cards and the game. HAL was programmed a certain way by people who may or may not know more about baseball than you and I. I never let HAL manage my team.

Mike

[motherscratcher]

[quote:6204c76cd9="mrmdoetkott"]I do not buy into the theory that HAL is a better manager than a human that really studies the cards and the game. HAL was programmed a certain way by people who may or may not know more about baseball than you and I. I never let HAL manage my team.

Mike[/quote:6204c76cd9]

I agree with that, but I don't think that's what coyote is getting at.

I think he's wondering if HAL knows what cards his players are using even if we don't. And can we use the way Hal sets a lineup to help use determine what card is in play for certain players.

[ROBERTLATORRE]

Some information is there if you know how to look for it.

Under the right situation, HAL can provide insight in the mystery games. If you have 2 players at the same position with comparable fielding ratings, HAL will pick the better offensive player of the two based on the opposing starting pitcher.

Also, as many of the CDROM players would agree to, HAL has a set idea of what a lineup should look like and will make odd decisions based on pure numbers (i.e. Barry Bonds as a leadoff hitter). That can help as well.

If you use HAL as "additional" information about the card you may have, he can be helpful.

For example, I had a player with 4 great cards and 1 bad card. HAL batted him 8th or 9th. While I let it go for 21 games since I was in denial, it was his worst card, it was great to know that early since he was an $8mil + player.

Also, if you have a player that has 4 cards that are very strong against RHP and a card strong against LHP and HAL pinch hits for him late against a RHP, you probably have the 1 strong LH card.

The best thing about the mystery card games is that there are lots of ways to approach it.

I would never let HAL manage for me, but I will leave my 1st or 2nd series blank just to see what he does, and I will occasionally leave a position blank to let him indicate which of my roster players has the best card for the spot.

Having said that, HAL will ALWAYS go with fielding over hitting as he showed me last night starting Manwaring over Tetteleton, which has no possible card combination that makes any sense.

So I obviously know nothing, and you should disregard my post.

[voovits]

I was the one who started the thread in the league. I was going to keep the discussion there, but lets see what everyone else says.

Here's my team:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=370685&stats=sim&onroster=1

I already made 2 drops. The team started with Eddie Perez and Shane Mack.

Here are the lineups HAL choose for games 1-3, all vrs righties.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=157692&g_id=5

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=157692&g_id=11

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=157692&g_id=17

Using that information, I boldly stated that I had the following players:
Steve Decker 90
Eddie Williams 94
Phil Plantier 91

I also stated that Mack is not a card worth keeping, and I went and dropped him and Eddie Perez.

I will reiterate what I have said many times about letting HAL set lineups.
- Ignore who he places in the 1 and 2 slots in the order. You can't learn anything from those 2 slots. (That is why I often manually enter the 2 players I consider "safest" into the 1 and 2 slots and leave the rest blank.)
- HAL does NOT do a good job in choosing WHO to start (see game 1, starting Perez at C over Decker, and see previous example of starting Manwaring at C)
The only thing HAL is good for as placing players in the 3-9 slots in the batting order. He will give you a good indication as to the quality of player based on where they hit.
I determined best cards from those 3 players solely based on the fact that they all hit ahead of Walker.
I made the Determination on Mack based on him hitting behind Alfonzo, and the fact that he got pinch hit for.
I could also safely say as a result that I probably have Walker 90 or 92, so he'll probably get dropped, but I'm not going to make a snap judgement on such a player until I see where he hits against lefties.

Now, we are only 3 games into the season, so if anyone thinks it's too early to tell and that HAL doesn't know what he is doing, then we will see who is right in another 159 games.

[Ducky]

Let's add a twist to this conversation. Do the managers that use HAL as an indicator have better winning percentages than those that do not use HAL as an indicator? If there is a significant difference in winning percentages that show the HAL followers outpace the non HAL followers, in the 70s, 80s and 90s, I will become a believer.

[Jimmy_C]

I don't let HAL set my initial lineups. I have a hard time interpreting the results without knowing any of the years already. Especially when HAL will have different lineups vs same-handed pitching. Later in the season I will leave some openings in the lineup (usually DH) to see who HAL plugs into different situations.

NOW...that being said, there's a strong case for what Voovits interperts from the result's he got. Since my team was the beneficiary of sweep he dished out, I got a first hand look at the results. HAL batted his 1-year wonders in the power positions. Also, the results they got were excellent. Even discounting the results though, the placement in the lineup would be (to me) a strong indicator of excellent years for those players.

Voovits feels like he's interpreting the results correctly. I'm not going to argue with him but I haven't had any luck with his system.

[ROBERTLATORRE]

[quote:9deb84b45d="mrmdoetkott"]Let's add a twist to this conversation. Do the managers that use HAL as an indicator have better winning percentages than those that do not use HAL as an indicator? If there is a significant difference in winning percentages that show the HAL followers outpace the non HAL followers, in the 70s, 80s and 90s, I will become a believer.[/quote:9deb84b45d]

No I am crappy in all card sets!!!

[YountFan]

HAL does have some inside knowledge and it can be useful. I look at leaving the lineups blank in the same way I look at how HAL uses RP. While he can be stupid crazy he can provide insight. How you use this extra information is up to you. You have to decide of HAL is smart or crazy.

Buyer beware.

[Hakmusic]

I agree with Yountfan in that I think there is information there, but just take it with a grain of salt. I let HAL set my lineup for the first couple of series and note a few things, primarily the differences in the LHP lineup vs. the RHP lineup. All else being equal, if Hal starts one player vs. LHP and a different player vs. RHP, that can be information that is worth keeping in your head.

Little things like that. I then bank that knowledge till later on when I am trying to read into actual results (i.e. after 60 or 70 at bats). I don't drop players based on HAL's lineup decisions. I also don't put much stock into batting order, though I've seen some pretty good explanations as to how HAL sets the batting order that do seem to make sense to me.