Curse of the 100+ winner v. Wild Card

[UrbanShockers]

Have any of the analytically-minded folks here done a study of whether very strong regular season teams lose disproportionately to wild card teams in the first round? It seems like many if not most regulars assumes this to be true (and so do I), but I haven't seen anyone crunch the numbers (and wouldn't know much how to do it myself).

Any links, or your thoughts on the underlying subject, appreciated.

[Phenomenal]

In a 1986 season that just finished a week ago, I was the wild card team with 92 wins. The winner of my division had 102 wins and was my first round opponent. I lost 3 games to 1 and Clemens threw a no hitter against me.

[Jimmy_C]

Good question. Maybe we can get a lot of data on this and see the big picture better. Here's the breakdown for my 100+ win teams:

70's - (3) 100+ win teams. (2) Championships, (1) "lost in finals" meaning I got past the wild-card.

80's - (7) 100+ win teams. (5) Championships, (1) "lost in finals" meaning I got past the wild-card team, (2) lost in semi-finals where I was sunk by the wild-card team.

1986 - No 100+ win teams.

70% - Championship
20% - Lost to a division leader
20% - Lost to the wild-card team

I can't complain so far about performance against the wild-card team.

[Palanion]

Here's my four playoff teams playing 1986:
- 86 wins, won division, #3 seed, lost semis to #2
- 94 wins, won division, #1 seed, lost semis to WC (WC was 92 wins from my division who beat me H2H in reg. sea.)
- 96 wins, won division, #2 seed, lost final to WC
- 83 wins, wild card, #4 seed, lost semis to #1

Here's my playoff teams in ATG:
- 84 wins, won division, #3 seed, lost semis to #2
- 89 wins, won division, #2 seed, lost semis to #3
- 87 wins, tied division, wild card, won finals over #2
- 89 wins, won division, #2 seed, lost semis to #3
- 95 wins, won division, #1 seed, lost final to #2
- 95 wins, won divisions, #1 seed, won final over #3

So, in three times where I faced the WC in the semis, I won two, lost one.
And in the two times I was the WC, I won title once, lost to #1 in semis once.

Two championships: one as #1, one as WC.

[Proverbial Psalms]

Detailed analysis performed last summer (853 leagues of ATGv3)...

Click on the following thread for... [url=http://forums.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=237116][color=red:b75a4843c8]Debunking the Myth[/color:b75a4843c8][/url]

Team with league's best record won championship 32.5% of time (vs. expected 25%)

Playoff team with worst record (of 4 teams) won championship 18.2% of time (vs. expected 25%)

So yes, it is more myth than fact that the best teams, or 100+ win teams, get knocked off more than their fair share of times... yet the pain of it occurring to those managers to whom it occirs, makes it more memorable than all the (above average amount of) times that the team with the best overall record actually wins the championship.

[Jimmy_C]

Great info Bill...thanks.

[RICHARDMILTER]

It is not like that can happen in real life, just ask the New England Patriots.