Newbie Question

[vindal]

Can someone please help me out on the following.

Is a catchers throwing rating added/deducted from a baserunners steal range when a steal is attempted or is just the pitchers hold rating taken into consideration? In other words, is the baserunner's probability of stealing a base the net of both the catchers throwing rating and pitchers hold rating or is just the pitchers hold rating added/subtracted to the baserunners probability of stealing a base?

Thanks
Vin

[Mean Dean]

[quote:b3db375e6f]is the baserunner's probability of stealing a base the net of both the catchers throwing rating and pitchers hold rating[/quote:b3db375e6f]Assuming that base is not home, yes. (The chance to steal home is simply the stealer's second steal number, times 5%, minus 45%. Neither the catcher's arm nor the pitcher's hold is relevant.)

Note that, on steals of second and third, the combined total of the pitcher's hold and the catcher's arm cannot affect the steal chance by more than 25% either way.

Also note that it is important whether the runner is held on base. If he is, it will be either a 10% penalty to his chance if he gets the lead and is attempting to steal 2nd, or a 20% penalty if he is attempting to steal 2nd without the lead, or is attempting to steal 3rd or home (either of which requires getting the lead to even attempt at all.)

[vindal]

Dean:

Thanks for all your help.

Vin

[Palanion]

vindal,

So that you can avoid the percentages math, the below info comes from www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/somrules.htm

Stealing
When a batter becomes a baserunner or if there is an on base change (ex: runner on first, batter grounds into a forceout), the defensive manager IMMEDIATELY indicates whether the lead runner is to be held on . The defensive manager must elect to either hold or not hold the runner before every at bat. For example, with a runner at first base, the defense may indicate that a runner will be held on. After the next batter strikes out, he may decide not to hold the runner on. Of course, once the runner(s) relinquishes their base(s), the defensive manager's holding on instructions are automatically voided.

Stealing Second Base

Stealing second base is achieved by tolling two 6-sided dice and one 20-sided die and referring to the set of supplementary stealing numbers located at the top of the player card following the advanced steal rating of the would-be basestealer and the Balk & Pickoff Rule. An example of possible supplementary stealing system numbers may be found below.

*8-10/11,12 (19-14)

After the offense declares his intention to steal, he would first roll all three dice (One 20-sided and two 6-sided) If a roll of 3-20 on the 20-sided die occurs continue with the normal steal sequence (re-rolling the 20-sided die if a steal is actually attempted). If a 1 or 2 is rolled on the 20-sided die you would refer to the Balk/Pickoff Rule (see below).

The set of numbers (numbers preceding slash) indicate a player's chance of establishing a good lead. The second set of numbers (numbers following slash and before parenthesis) pertain to the runner's out stealing range. The third set of numbers (number in parenthesis) are the player's steal rating numbers. If the dice roll results fall within the first set of numbers, in the example 8-10 (8,9 or 10), the runner has established a good lead and MUST steal. If the dice roll result falls within the second set of numbers (in the example, 11 or 12) the runner is automatically out stealing. If the dice roll value is not included in either the first two sets of numbers (good lead numbers or out stealing numbers), 2-7 in the example, the baserunner has failed to establish a good lead and this is not a MUST attempt steal situation.

If the baserunner established a good lead, the defense decides whether to contest the stolen base, If the defense decides not to contest the stolen base, the base is stolen and no other action is needed. If the defense decides to attempt to throw the runner out, roll the 20-sided die and refer to the first rating in parenthesis (in the example, 19) found on the baserunner's card. If the roll is between 1 and 19 the baserunner successfully stole second base. If the roll is 20, he was thrown out attempting to steal.

If the baserunner failed to establish a good lead, the offensive manager may reverse his decision and not steal, However, if the manager still prefers a steal attempt, refer to the second rating number in parenthesis, in this example 14. If the 20-die roll is from 1 to 14 the runner is safe. If the roll is 15-20, the runner is out stealing,

When using either rating number, first add together the catcher's throwing arm rating and the pitcher's hold rating (found at the top of the pitcher's card), The total of the two numbers must not exceed the range of -5 to +5. For example, if the catcher's throwing rating was -3 and the pitcher's hold rating was -4, the total of -7 would be reduced to -5 . However, if the runner is "held on" subtract from the prior total the following, an additional -2 when using the first rating and -4 when using the second rating number. THIS NUMBER MAY NOT EXCEED -5. In order to demonstrate the entire calculation assume the following: the runner being held on, assume a catcher's throwing arm rating of -4 and a pitcher's hold rating of -3. If the dice roll total was 8 (two six-sided dice), the baserunner established a good lead and must steal. First total together the catcher' a throwing arm rating (-4) and the pitcher's hold rating (-3). Since (-7) is greater than the maximum deduction , reduce to (-5). Then subtract (-2). His chances for a successful steal would be 1-12 [19 + (-5) + (-2) = 12], If the initial dice roll was 5, the baserunner did not get a good lead. If the offensive manager still wanted to attempt a steal of second, his chances would be 1-5 [14 + (-5) + (-4)=5]. IF THE BASERUNNER IS NOT HELD ON, THE SAFE STEAL RATING (NUMBER IN PARENTHESIS) MAY EXCEED 20, IF A RUNNER IS HELD ON, THE MAXIMUM RANGE IS 1-19,

In a steal situation, if a baserunner's good lead numbers are preceded by an asterisk and he is not being held on, the offensive manager automatically rolls the 20-sided die referring to the baserunner's first rating number. A dice frequency roll is not necessary to establish a good lead in this situation. An asterisk reading only affects steals of second base (third and home are not affectedly

NOTE: There is only one dice roll for the lead per baserunner per base. There are two exceptions to this rule:

If the offense rolls but doesn't get the lead for a baserunner who is held, and the defensive manager subsequently decides not to hold the runner on base.
If the offense rolls for the lead and does not get it, and then the defense changes to a pitcher with a worse hold rating or a catcher with a worse arm. In these cases the baserunner would have another roll for the lead.
Catcher's T-Rating

If second or third base is successfully stolen, and 1,2 or 3 was rolled during the successful steal, roll the 20-sided die again. Refer to the defensive catcher's card for his "T" number(s). If the number rolled is within the range of the catcher's "T" number(s), a throwing error by the catcher has occurred, allowing the baserunner(s) to advance one additional base. No throwing error occurs if the number rolled is not listed among the defensive catcher's "T" number(s).

Stealing Third Base

An attempted steal of third base is slightly different. In order for the runner to steal, he must achieve a good lead, If the manager's dice roll results fail to fall within the attempt steal range of the would-be stealer, he may not attempt a steal of third base. Of course, the runner is out if the dice roll results fall within the out stealing range. If the baserunner achieved a good lead, roll the 20-sided die and refer to the SECOND rating number (14 in the example) of the potential stealer. Deduct -4 if the defensive manager had indicated that he was "holding the runner on", also take into account the catcher's throwing arm and the pitcher's hold rating,

Stealing Home

An attempted steal of home is exactly the same as stealing third base with two exceptions: Subtract -9 from the baserunner's second rating and do not account for the catcher's throwing arm and the pitcher's hold rating. For example, if the baserunner on third is NOT held on, his safe chances are 1-5 [ 14 + (-9) = 5]. If he had been held on his only chance for a successful steal of home would be 1 [14 + (-9) + (-4) = 1]