NLD 26 Chat

[nythawk129921]

Hmmm a 10 game losing streak followed up shortly after that by losing 11 of 12. Not surprising since I havent liked this team since the draft concluded :x :roll: Of course at 18-27 I still have a chance to turn things around.Interestingly in the rest of the games I am 17-6 so if I can just avoid these insane losing streaks I still have a chance :D

[joethejet]

Wow, that's a weird stretch for sure. Or, I should say, stretches. Jeckel and Hyde. :shock:

We're scuffling along. Hopefully we'll play closer to our pythagorean from here on out. Managed to get two from Stones last night.

Jet

[Jeepdriver]

Was pleased to add another two 1-run losses on Burgundy last nite. :wink:

[joethejet]

Ho Hum, just another day at the office, lose two one run games, win a blow out. We let DT do it to us tonight. Don't think you're special Jeep. ;) We're going for the record in biggest difference in Pythag and actual record! :roll: ;)

Minus 9 in One runners already. Just want to go .500 the rest of the way and I *think* we'll have a good shot at the playoffs, we have a 27-27 record even with that lousy record in close games.

Jet

[joethejet]

We won a one run game! Sorry Hawk.

Wow, that's nice.

I've done some ratings. Might get a chance to get them out this weekend if I'm lucky.

Jet

[joethejet]

[code:1:4d265d58af]
Team O P F P+F Overall Div
Zim13.. 7628 4916 399 5315 2313 W
DuJerry 7557 4472 871 5343 2214 C
JoeTJet 7879 4870 538 5408 2471 C
BigMahn 7673 5254 221 5476 2197 W
ArrylTr 7650 5293 203 5496 2154 E
Smokey. 7988 5361 151 5512 2476 E
BigAlrc 7878 5191 441 5632 2246 E
JeepDrv 8031 5095 570 5665 2366 C
Keyzick 8039 5152 556 5708 2331 W
nythawk 7823 5180 625 5806 2017 W
Dtigers 8408 5373 440 5813 2596 C
Stoney. 8283 5388 496 5885 2399 E
[/code:1:4d265d58af]

Ok, I usually wait a little bit a little bit longer, but decided to put this out anyway. For those that haven’t seen my team ratings before, Higher is better for hitting, lower is better for fielding and pitching.

I’ll get into each category down below. Worth noting here that the best fielding team is Smokey and the worst, but a long shot is DJ. AT and Big M also have very good D’s. Fielding tends to be the most variable in its effect on the actual results. Seems to be a bigger luck issue involved, or I have a flaw in my ratings. Couldn’t be the latter so we’re going with the luck thing. ;)

The Central is the toughest division (just my luck) with a 2412 average, the East is 100 back with the West the weakest division at 2215. Best hitting is a tie between East and Central with the Central’s pitching slightly better than the West, but that category is very close.

[code:1:4d265d58af]


Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Dtigers 2596 2 1 1 C
Smokey. 2476 3 7 -4 E
JoeTJet 2471 3 5 -2 C
Stoney. 2399 4 4 0 E
JeepDrv 2366 4 2 2 C
Keyzick 2331 5 5 0 W
Zim13.. 2313 5 3 2 W
BigAlrc 2246 6 9 -3 E
DuJerry 2214 7 9 -2 C
BigMahn 2197 7 5 2 W
ArrylTr 2154 8 4 4 E
nythawk 2017 9 9 0 W

[/code:1:4d265d58af]

Overall ratings are pretty close at this point with a couple exceptions. Smokey is well below what the ratings say (see fielding caveat above) and AT is over performing. Smokey’s Pythag would say he’s better than he’s played. AT’s offense just isn’t as good as it has played.
Other than that, Big A is a little low and a couple of others may be a bit high.

[code:1:4d265d58af]

Team Of O Rtg Run Dif
Dtigers 8408 1 3 -2 C
Stoney. 8283 3 1 2 E
Keyzick 8039 5 3 2 W
JeepDrv 8031 5 5 0 C
Smokey. 7988 6 6 0 E
JoeTJet 7879 7 5 2 C
BigAlrc 7878 7 8 -1 E
nythawk 7823 8 10 -2 W
BigMahn 7673 10 4 6 W
ArrylTr 7650 10 3 7 E
Zim13.. 7628 10 4 6 W
DuJerry 7557 11 12 -1 C
[/code:1:4d265d58af]
On O, AT, Big M and Zim are all over performing by a good deal. Everyone else, interestingly is close to where the ratings say.
[code:1:4d265d58af]


Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
Zim13.. 5315 1 3 -2 W
DuJerry 5343 1 5 -4 C
JoeTJet 5408 3 5 -2 C
BigMahn 5476 4 9 -5 W
ArrylTr 5496 4 7 -3 E
Smokey. 5512 4 5 -1 E
BigAlrc 5632 6 10 -4 E
JeepDrv 5665 7 1 6 C
Keyzick 5708 8 10 -2 W
nythawk 5806 10 10 0 W
Dtigers 5813 10 3 7 C
Stoney. 5885 11 12 -1 E
[/code:1:4d265d58af]
Pitching has some wide variations from the ratings. DJ, Big A, and Big M are way below. Taking a guess, I would say that DJ’s D *is* killing him more than expected and Big A has had some bad luck. Only Lilly and the backend of his pen have been any good at all. One other thing to note, DJ’s pen hasn’t pitched much so the SPs are probably pitching tired a lot.

OTOH, Jeep and, especially, DT are over performing. DT is particularly off given that he’s spent only 19 mil on that staff. Either great drafting or a LOT of luck so far. Little harder to pen what’s going right for jeep. Getting a 1.76 ERA out of Aceves in 97 IP is one thing , and just better than expected across the board I suppose.

All for now. Please comment and ask questions or tell me why the ratings are wrong for your team.

[Jeepdriver]

I think my team is put together much better than the ratings indicate. I do admit, however, that Rowand-Smith and Aceves (a combined 17-0) will lose a game or two at some point. :wink:

[superflymacdaddyjuice]

thanks for the ratings as always Joe.

I feel like this team is my strongest offering in quite a while. I am really bummed about how they have played.

[keyzick]

Looks good...I still can't tell what kind of team I have...kind of a roller coaster so far.

[joethejet]

Jeep,

well one thing I neglected to put into my post was some projections. (I also posted all the ratings with the wrong sort, fixed below)

So, the ratings are very close as usual. DT put together a very high rated team for his park, but it's one sided. One sided teams are prone to highs and lows unless he can get that kind of pitching all year (unlikely) I'll post the park by park ratings when I get a chance. I think DT will be hot and cold there.

As for your team, there isn't much difference between teams 1-7 (DT down to Zim). All those teams should be in the mix.

The ratings would suggest Smoke and Stoney in the East will be the best two. In the Central, there are really three teams that are playoff contenders with DJ the exception. As for the West, none of the teams are all that great. Hawk is far and away the weakest rated team. Big M isn't that far ahead. Ratings would say that Zim and Key will battle it out.

WC should come from either the Central or the East.

Smoke,

Well if you look at your pythag, you should be better. I would *think* you'll improve. Looks like you have a pretty balanced squad. The only thiing is that your rating is affected a lot by your fielding which can be hit and miss.

Key,

I don't think there's too mch mystery about your team, you crush LHP, your pitching is a little below average. If you face a lot of LHP, you should be fine. If, OTOH, you face a steady diet of RHP, I think you'll struggle. At least that's what the ratings would indicate.

[code:1:00f5feda5d]
Team O P F P+F Overall Div
Dtigers 8408 5373 440 5813 2596 C
Smokey. 7988 5361 151 5512 2476 E
JoeTJet 7879 4870 538 5408 2471 C
Stoney. 8283 5388 496 5885 2399 E
JeepDrv 8031 5095 570 5665 2366 C
Keyzick 8039 5152 556 5708 2331 W
Zim13.. 7628 4916 399 5315 2313 W
BigAlrc 7878 5191 441 5632 2246 E
DuJerry 7557 4472 871 5343 2214 C
BigMahn 7673 5254 221 5476 2197 W
ArrylTr 7650 5293 203 5496 2154 E
nythawk 7823 5180 625 5806 2017 W
[/code:1:00f5feda5d]