NLD Twenty-Nine!
Luck
by Stoney18 » Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:57 pm
All this talk about luck got me thinking. Very dangerous to do and so easy to pull a muscle but sometimes you have to take the risk.
Human nature says we have good luck when we're winning and bad luck when we're losing. In our case we are playing a dice game and if we rolled enough times we're expected to come up with results matching the probabilities of the dice. But how many is enough times and what types of variances can we expect over a 162 game season?
The CD game gives us quite a bit of information and I took a look at a recently completed 24 team league I play in.
For the league there were 146,100 rolls and 73,240 or 50.1% were on the batters card.
For Hitting the highest team had 52.2% and the lowest was 49.0%.
For Pitching the highest team was 51.4% and the lowest was 48.5%.
Combined rolls (batting & pitching) for team the highest was 51.4% and the lowest was 49.1%
Let's take a closer at our "unlucky" team who only had 49.1% of the rolls on his cards. Rolls were 5,972 for and 6,200 against. If he were to even out the rolls he would have had 114 more rolls on his cards (hitters & pitchers combined) instead of his opponents.
Here's where facts stop and questions begin. In this league teams have an MLB type salary/FA/draft structure and there are clearly championship caliber teams and rebuilding teams. The team that had 52.2% of the rolls on their hitters cards when at bat only won 48 games. Clearly, having more rolls doesn't help if you have a bad team to begin with.
In NLD the $80M salary cap evens the playing field considerably but there are still considerations that make good and bad teams. All of us are pretty experienced so some of the glaring newbie mistakes may not be there but with a draft situation we sometimes had players that are less than ideal.
The top team in my division is 64-47 with 513-440 runs for/against.
The bottom team is 48-63 with 499-539 runs for/against and 16 games behind the division leader.
We've completed 68% of the season and using the 114 season rolls from the "unlucky" team in my other league that would be approximately 78 more rolls on this teams cards. This does not mean 78 more good plays just 78 more rolls on your cards versus your opponents.
Do these 78 more rolls close the gap between these teams? Assuming the top team is the "luckiest" team and you were to take 78 rolls off of their cards and move them to their opponent? Measuring the impact of the rolls is well beyond my capabilities.
This is as far as my brain can take this exercise. It may have no actual use or benefit except to have kept me from actual work for about half an hour.
Disclaimer: this post is in no way meant to be a discussion of any individual team or manager. Just a curiosity for how much luck may be involved in our game and what the impact may be.
There is an obvious next level of "luck" from just rolling on your card to what is actually rolled on your card. This info is not available in a summary format from the CD game.
Human nature says we have good luck when we're winning and bad luck when we're losing. In our case we are playing a dice game and if we rolled enough times we're expected to come up with results matching the probabilities of the dice. But how many is enough times and what types of variances can we expect over a 162 game season?
The CD game gives us quite a bit of information and I took a look at a recently completed 24 team league I play in.
For the league there were 146,100 rolls and 73,240 or 50.1% were on the batters card.
For Hitting the highest team had 52.2% and the lowest was 49.0%.
For Pitching the highest team was 51.4% and the lowest was 48.5%.
Combined rolls (batting & pitching) for team the highest was 51.4% and the lowest was 49.1%
Let's take a closer at our "unlucky" team who only had 49.1% of the rolls on his cards. Rolls were 5,972 for and 6,200 against. If he were to even out the rolls he would have had 114 more rolls on his cards (hitters & pitchers combined) instead of his opponents.
Here's where facts stop and questions begin. In this league teams have an MLB type salary/FA/draft structure and there are clearly championship caliber teams and rebuilding teams. The team that had 52.2% of the rolls on their hitters cards when at bat only won 48 games. Clearly, having more rolls doesn't help if you have a bad team to begin with.
In NLD the $80M salary cap evens the playing field considerably but there are still considerations that make good and bad teams. All of us are pretty experienced so some of the glaring newbie mistakes may not be there but with a draft situation we sometimes had players that are less than ideal.
The top team in my division is 64-47 with 513-440 runs for/against.
The bottom team is 48-63 with 499-539 runs for/against and 16 games behind the division leader.
We've completed 68% of the season and using the 114 season rolls from the "unlucky" team in my other league that would be approximately 78 more rolls on this teams cards. This does not mean 78 more good plays just 78 more rolls on your cards versus your opponents.
Do these 78 more rolls close the gap between these teams? Assuming the top team is the "luckiest" team and you were to take 78 rolls off of their cards and move them to their opponent? Measuring the impact of the rolls is well beyond my capabilities.
This is as far as my brain can take this exercise. It may have no actual use or benefit except to have kept me from actual work for about half an hour.
Disclaimer: this post is in no way meant to be a discussion of any individual team or manager. Just a curiosity for how much luck may be involved in our game and what the impact may be.
There is an obvious next level of "luck" from just rolling on your card to what is actually rolled on your card. This info is not available in a summary format from the CD game.
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by Detroit-Tigers » Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:41 pm
Easy math- 3% difference between best and worst in your example. Average pitching card 400 ops, hitting card 800 ops, so 400 ops difference * 3% or 12 OPS, but that is just based on which card, not which number. My feeling is that there can be a swing of 7 games each way 9 times out of ten. So say your team should be 81 games, 90% of the time you will get between 88 and 74.
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by joethejet » Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:11 pm
[b:0b17e2fda5]Jeep,
Thank you.[/b:0b17e2fda5]
Stoney, Cool stuff thanks for the analysis. Ok, there is that sort of luck but that's not really the type I'm talking about so much. I've played well over 1000 SOM games face-to-face so I see how the dice rolls play out up close and personal. In general, I think teams get the same number of high rolls and low rolls and, as you show, rolls on your card. What is just as critical is the timing of such rolls. This is what I believe leads some teams to have good one run records and others to have poor records. You roll that 1 for a HR in a 10-0 game instead of a 2-1 game, you get the WP with a guy on third and two out instead of a guy at first and two out. This is what I was referencing in my rant, the timing of breaks.
Some players will be inordinately cold for a season. I'm sure your CD play throughs will show you how things can change from season to season. I had Anibal Sanchez have a GREAT year one time and then a more typical year for him the next time (in similar parks). In general you'll see teams with a few guys below where you would expect and a few above and most about what you would think. When you see a team that varies from that negatively, then I would say they've been unlucky and vice versa. What's happening? Well, those particular players could be rolling on the other card more often, or, when on their own card, they could be in the wrong column frequently.
I think my current team is a good example of the latter. Pujols, Hunter, Werth, Wilson, Downs, and Verlander have been awful. (Verlander has been better of late however) On the flip side of that coin, who's been better than expected? Well, only Masset in the pitching I would say. In our hitting, maybe Alvarez due to his power numbers in AT&T although we have two big HR parks in the division and he's got twice as many HRs on the road. SSS but maybe you could say Janish v RHP too. A bunch of hitters are about what you'd think give or take.
Now, what is completely possible to happen is that the guys that suck will pick it up and end up near the numbers you would expect. The problem is that the timing could be such that it won't matter.
The short and long of it is that there are many "luck" factors to consider. When I look at a team to evaluate whether I think they've had good or bad luck, those are the things I look at. So, would you expect all four of my SPs and my two best RPs to be where they are? I would say no, pitching in AT&T. Would you expect my offense to be where it is? Again, I do'nt think you'd expect the big 3 to be so bad, maybe one of them and you'd expect an outlier on the other side too. Of course, going 3-20 without Tulo was hard to believe. If you throw out those games, we're over .500.
As Big M said, however, when it happens several leagues in a row, perhaps I'm missing something.
Jet[/b]
Thank you.[/b:0b17e2fda5]
Stoney, Cool stuff thanks for the analysis. Ok, there is that sort of luck but that's not really the type I'm talking about so much. I've played well over 1000 SOM games face-to-face so I see how the dice rolls play out up close and personal. In general, I think teams get the same number of high rolls and low rolls and, as you show, rolls on your card. What is just as critical is the timing of such rolls. This is what I believe leads some teams to have good one run records and others to have poor records. You roll that 1 for a HR in a 10-0 game instead of a 2-1 game, you get the WP with a guy on third and two out instead of a guy at first and two out. This is what I was referencing in my rant, the timing of breaks.
Some players will be inordinately cold for a season. I'm sure your CD play throughs will show you how things can change from season to season. I had Anibal Sanchez have a GREAT year one time and then a more typical year for him the next time (in similar parks). In general you'll see teams with a few guys below where you would expect and a few above and most about what you would think. When you see a team that varies from that negatively, then I would say they've been unlucky and vice versa. What's happening? Well, those particular players could be rolling on the other card more often, or, when on their own card, they could be in the wrong column frequently.
I think my current team is a good example of the latter. Pujols, Hunter, Werth, Wilson, Downs, and Verlander have been awful. (Verlander has been better of late however) On the flip side of that coin, who's been better than expected? Well, only Masset in the pitching I would say. In our hitting, maybe Alvarez due to his power numbers in AT&T although we have two big HR parks in the division and he's got twice as many HRs on the road. SSS but maybe you could say Janish v RHP too. A bunch of hitters are about what you'd think give or take.
Now, what is completely possible to happen is that the guys that suck will pick it up and end up near the numbers you would expect. The problem is that the timing could be such that it won't matter.
The short and long of it is that there are many "luck" factors to consider. When I look at a team to evaluate whether I think they've had good or bad luck, those are the things I look at. So, would you expect all four of my SPs and my two best RPs to be where they are? I would say no, pitching in AT&T. Would you expect my offense to be where it is? Again, I do'nt think you'd expect the big 3 to be so bad, maybe one of them and you'd expect an outlier on the other side too. Of course, going 3-20 without Tulo was hard to believe. If you throw out those games, we're over .500.
As Big M said, however, when it happens several leagues in a row, perhaps I'm missing something.
Jet[/b]
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by joethejet » Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:13 pm
Updated numbers/Analysis.
[code:1:128cd02007]
Team… O P F P+F Overall Div
Stoney. 8192 5063 623 5686 2506 C
JoeTJet 7962 4963 539 5502 2460 C
Smokey. 8110 5048 721 5769 2341 W
BigMahn 7596 5133 131 5264 2332 C
JeepDrv 7926 5304 415 5719 2207 E
Dtigers 8199 5542 503 6045 2153 W
nythawk 7538 5115 322 5437 2101 W
Silver.. 7449 5061 321 5383 2066 E
Zim13.. 6995 4803 194 4997 1998 E
BigAlrc 7474 4979 521 5500 1974 E
Keyzick 7638 4905 827 5732 1906 C
ArrylTr 8065 5727 470 6197 1868 W
Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Stoney. 2506 1 6 -5 C
JoeTJet 2460 2 9 -7 C
Smokey. 2341 4 6 -2 W
BigMahn 2332 4 3 1 C
JeepDrv 2207 5 1 4 E
Dtigers 2153 6 6 0 W
nythawk 2101 7 5 2 W
Silver.. 2066 8 8 0 E
Zim13.. 1998 9 5 4 E
BigAlrc 1974 9 7 2 E
Keyzick 1906 10 5 5 C
ArrylTr 1868 11 6 5 W
Team Of O Rtg Run Dif
Dtigers 8199 1 1 0 W
Stoney. 8192 1 8 -7 C
Smokey. 8110 2 6 -4 W
ArrylTr 8065 3 3 0 W
JoeTJet 7962 4 8 -4 C
JeepDrv 7926 5 5 0 E
Keyzick 7638 7 9 -2 C
BigMahn 7596 8 7 1 C
nythawk 7538 9 9 0 W
BigAlrc 7474 10 8 2 E
Silver.. 7449 10 10 0 E
Zim13.. 6995 12 12 0 E
Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
Zim13.. 4997 1 1 0 E
BigMahn 5264 3 2 1 C
Silver.. 5383 5 4 1 E
nythawk 5437 6 4 2 W
BigAlrc 5500 7 4 3 E
JoeTJet 5502 7 8 -1 C
Stoney. 5686 9 7 2 C
JeepDrv 5719 9 6 3 E
Keyzick 5732 9 6 3 C
Smokey. 5769 9 11 -2 W
Dtigers 6045 11 12 -1 W
ArrylTr 6197 12 10 2 W
[/code:1:128cd02007]
Overall,
well, clearly something is amiss with the ratings. I have Stoney and Jet 1-2 and they are no where near expectations primarily due to the differential in runs scored. This is especially true In Stoney’s case. And the ratings would expect Smokey to be higher than he is also and also due to the deficit in offense.
Jeep, as well documented is higher than expected due to his incredible one run record and perhaps better pitching than expected. Zim is also a surprise, but his O and D numbers are right on. I’m off again on AT. Not sure what I’m missing here. He’s got good offense. I guess his pitching has been good enough even though the ratings say it’s far and away the worst in the league. Well, DT is down there too. Obviously he’s scoring enough in the games that he needs to cuz his runs allowed are towards the bottom as you would expect. So, at this point, half the teams are significantly different that what the ratings would expect. This is as poor a performance as I think I’ve ever seen.
Offense
As stated earlier, the top three rated teams are underperforming in the offensive end which is probably why they aren’t doing as well as expected. For Stoney, perhaps the ratings over estimate the effect of his park. With all those BPHRs you’d expect a lot of runs but he’s not appreciably ahead of where he is on the road. For the Burgundy, getting very little from Pujols (v RHP), Hunter and Werth is going to dampen the expected offensive numbers. For Smoke this is another hitter’s park team. This may be a case of how I put the number on the teams. DT and AT are so far ahead of the next guys that it sort of skews the numbers. He should probably be closer to DT and AT. But really isn’t doing that poorly.
Defense
This is actually the most on target with only a couple of teams off much. Big A, Keyz and Jeep’s pitching could be considered a surprise but I could see those drop to where the ratings might suspect too.
So, overall, there are a lot of surprises, but only three teams O/D ratings are significantly off (and that does impact the overall ratings for them I’d say) Why there are four teams doing much better? One run games for Jeep, zim and Keyz, are a factore not sure what to think about AT. Must be the “Canadian Effect”! :)
Ratings would say:
East: Jeep is the best by quite a bit with the other three neck-and-neck and with poor records. Actual: Sort of true with zim a bit better than expected
Central: a three team race with Keyz out of it. Actual: Sub in JTJ for Keyz and it’s sort of close. You’d expect Stoney to make a run and perhaps JTJ, but JTJ is way to far out to have more than a spoiler role.
West: Smokey would be expected to be the best with DT and Hawk trailing and AT at the bottom. Actual: A super close race with all four within 5 games. Ratings would expect Smokey to make a run and AT to fall back. The other two would be expected to tread water at .500 or a little below the rest of the way (according to the ratings)
[code:1:128cd02007]
Team… O P F P+F Overall Div
Stoney. 8192 5063 623 5686 2506 C
JoeTJet 7962 4963 539 5502 2460 C
Smokey. 8110 5048 721 5769 2341 W
BigMahn 7596 5133 131 5264 2332 C
JeepDrv 7926 5304 415 5719 2207 E
Dtigers 8199 5542 503 6045 2153 W
nythawk 7538 5115 322 5437 2101 W
Silver.. 7449 5061 321 5383 2066 E
Zim13.. 6995 4803 194 4997 1998 E
BigAlrc 7474 4979 521 5500 1974 E
Keyzick 7638 4905 827 5732 1906 C
ArrylTr 8065 5727 470 6197 1868 W
Team Ov Ovrl Rtg Rec Dif
Stoney. 2506 1 6 -5 C
JoeTJet 2460 2 9 -7 C
Smokey. 2341 4 6 -2 W
BigMahn 2332 4 3 1 C
JeepDrv 2207 5 1 4 E
Dtigers 2153 6 6 0 W
nythawk 2101 7 5 2 W
Silver.. 2066 8 8 0 E
Zim13.. 1998 9 5 4 E
BigAlrc 1974 9 7 2 E
Keyzick 1906 10 5 5 C
ArrylTr 1868 11 6 5 W
Team Of O Rtg Run Dif
Dtigers 8199 1 1 0 W
Stoney. 8192 1 8 -7 C
Smokey. 8110 2 6 -4 W
ArrylTr 8065 3 3 0 W
JoeTJet 7962 4 8 -4 C
JeepDrv 7926 5 5 0 E
Keyzick 7638 7 9 -2 C
BigMahn 7596 8 7 1 C
nythawk 7538 9 9 0 W
BigAlrc 7474 10 8 2 E
Silver.. 7449 10 10 0 E
Zim13.. 6995 12 12 0 E
Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
Zim13.. 4997 1 1 0 E
BigMahn 5264 3 2 1 C
Silver.. 5383 5 4 1 E
nythawk 5437 6 4 2 W
BigAlrc 5500 7 4 3 E
JoeTJet 5502 7 8 -1 C
Stoney. 5686 9 7 2 C
JeepDrv 5719 9 6 3 E
Keyzick 5732 9 6 3 C
Smokey. 5769 9 11 -2 W
Dtigers 6045 11 12 -1 W
ArrylTr 6197 12 10 2 W
[/code:1:128cd02007]
Overall,
well, clearly something is amiss with the ratings. I have Stoney and Jet 1-2 and they are no where near expectations primarily due to the differential in runs scored. This is especially true In Stoney’s case. And the ratings would expect Smokey to be higher than he is also and also due to the deficit in offense.
Jeep, as well documented is higher than expected due to his incredible one run record and perhaps better pitching than expected. Zim is also a surprise, but his O and D numbers are right on. I’m off again on AT. Not sure what I’m missing here. He’s got good offense. I guess his pitching has been good enough even though the ratings say it’s far and away the worst in the league. Well, DT is down there too. Obviously he’s scoring enough in the games that he needs to cuz his runs allowed are towards the bottom as you would expect. So, at this point, half the teams are significantly different that what the ratings would expect. This is as poor a performance as I think I’ve ever seen.
Offense
As stated earlier, the top three rated teams are underperforming in the offensive end which is probably why they aren’t doing as well as expected. For Stoney, perhaps the ratings over estimate the effect of his park. With all those BPHRs you’d expect a lot of runs but he’s not appreciably ahead of where he is on the road. For the Burgundy, getting very little from Pujols (v RHP), Hunter and Werth is going to dampen the expected offensive numbers. For Smoke this is another hitter’s park team. This may be a case of how I put the number on the teams. DT and AT are so far ahead of the next guys that it sort of skews the numbers. He should probably be closer to DT and AT. But really isn’t doing that poorly.
Defense
This is actually the most on target with only a couple of teams off much. Big A, Keyz and Jeep’s pitching could be considered a surprise but I could see those drop to where the ratings might suspect too.
So, overall, there are a lot of surprises, but only three teams O/D ratings are significantly off (and that does impact the overall ratings for them I’d say) Why there are four teams doing much better? One run games for Jeep, zim and Keyz, are a factore not sure what to think about AT. Must be the “Canadian Effect”! :)
Ratings would say:
East: Jeep is the best by quite a bit with the other three neck-and-neck and with poor records. Actual: Sort of true with zim a bit better than expected
Central: a three team race with Keyz out of it. Actual: Sub in JTJ for Keyz and it’s sort of close. You’d expect Stoney to make a run and perhaps JTJ, but JTJ is way to far out to have more than a spoiler role.
West: Smokey would be expected to be the best with DT and Hawk trailing and AT at the bottom. Actual: A super close race with all four within 5 games. Ratings would expect Smokey to make a run and AT to fall back. The other two would be expected to tread water at .500 or a little below the rest of the way (according to the ratings)
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by joethejet » Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:28 am
Ok, I wasn't going to post on my night tonight, BUT....
First one lose 1-0 in extras. Werth misses a pair of 1-10 BPHRs that would have won it for us.
Second one, lose 6-4 in 14, blowing a 3-0 lead, a 3-1 lead in the 8th (run scores on a 1-10 bpsi) and a 3-2 lead in the 9th when McCann steals a base to set up a 2 out single to tie the game. McCann only gets the jump on a 6, a 17% chance.
Game 3 we get shutout 3-0 by Dickey who's facing 5 RHB. Now, he's hardly a bozo, but not alll that great v RHB and we only got 5 hits and no walks. Werth misses another 1-10 and D Brown hits two 1-5 BPHRs. Not to say that Big A didn't miss some too.
REALLY?? REALLY?? <sigh>
Can I play DT some more???? ;)
Jet
First one lose 1-0 in extras. Werth misses a pair of 1-10 BPHRs that would have won it for us.
Second one, lose 6-4 in 14, blowing a 3-0 lead, a 3-1 lead in the 8th (run scores on a 1-10 bpsi) and a 3-2 lead in the 9th when McCann steals a base to set up a 2 out single to tie the game. McCann only gets the jump on a 6, a 17% chance.
Game 3 we get shutout 3-0 by Dickey who's facing 5 RHB. Now, he's hardly a bozo, but not alll that great v RHB and we only got 5 hits and no walks. Werth misses another 1-10 and D Brown hits two 1-5 BPHRs. Not to say that Big A didn't miss some too.
REALLY?? REALLY?? <sigh>
Can I play DT some more???? ;)
Jet
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I'm really wondering
by BigAlric » Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:43 am
why nobody is picking on me and my managerial 'skills'. :shock:
My pitching strategy went in the tank with my only R-balanced SP being the only one with a winning record, my bullpen has nearly as much botched saves as saves, my back-up C has to play RF after the deals I made, and those deals seem to have failed badly. While Huff is doing so-so, Tulowitzki is healthy, but plays bad defense and isn't producing offensively. Stubbs, Zobrist and Kemp are hovering around the Mendoza line, while my new slugger Ibanez is even below that. Next time around I'll need your assistance to build my team ...
My pitching strategy went in the tank with my only R-balanced SP being the only one with a winning record, my bullpen has nearly as much botched saves as saves, my back-up C has to play RF after the deals I made, and those deals seem to have failed badly. While Huff is doing so-so, Tulowitzki is healthy, but plays bad defense and isn't producing offensively. Stubbs, Zobrist and Kemp are hovering around the Mendoza line, while my new slugger Ibanez is even below that. Next time around I'll need your assistance to build my team ...
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by joethejet » Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:38 pm
Big A,
Well, at least you have an SP with an ERA < 4. Actually, your pen is kind of "interesting". You have decent ERAs and ratios, but a LOT of BS's. Weird. Of course, you have to ask why Jordan Smith has six save situations to begin with and your .50 RPs have a total of 12 between them. Your two good RPs are 16 for 23.
You're in a LH singles park So that's not going to help Kemp (who's not very good v RHP0 or Subbs (who doesn't have a high BA either way) Zobrist is mostly an OB guy so at least he's done that for you.
Tulo and Huff should be better for you, especially Huff's average. Hard to believe that Tulo has 8 E's for you so far! :shock: He's got 11 on the season now so should be about done. Zimmerman has also been bit low v RHP, but is hitting LHP as expected.
If you're asking for *my* assitance, you should probably look elsewhere as I haven't made the playoffs in awhile now.
Jet
Well, at least you have an SP with an ERA < 4. Actually, your pen is kind of "interesting". You have decent ERAs and ratios, but a LOT of BS's. Weird. Of course, you have to ask why Jordan Smith has six save situations to begin with and your .50 RPs have a total of 12 between them. Your two good RPs are 16 for 23.
You're in a LH singles park So that's not going to help Kemp (who's not very good v RHP0 or Subbs (who doesn't have a high BA either way) Zobrist is mostly an OB guy so at least he's done that for you.
Tulo and Huff should be better for you, especially Huff's average. Hard to believe that Tulo has 8 E's for you so far! :shock: He's got 11 on the season now so should be about done. Zimmerman has also been bit low v RHP, but is hitting LHP as expected.
If you're asking for *my* assitance, you should probably look elsewhere as I haven't made the playoffs in awhile now.
Jet
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by joethejet » Fri Nov 11, 2011 1:45 am
The Nightly report:
Manage to actually win a one run game, but then Wilson blows a save in game 2 and lose 1-0 in game 3.
This has been a brutal stretch:
In our last 7 series, we've lost 14 games, only the sweep of DT makes the number look even somewhat decent. Without that, we're 4-14.
Of those losses
9 of 14 are by one run
6 of 14 were in extra innings and two others were won in the other team's last AB
Of the 14, 12 were either by one run, in extras, or in the other team's last AB.
So, do we just suck enough to barely lose games or is there some bad luck coming my way here?
Pujols and Werth are both at 194 over the past 10 games and Hunter has hit 171.
I should add that 3 of the 7 wins were by a run also so we're playing a lot of close games.
Jet
Manage to actually win a one run game, but then Wilson blows a save in game 2 and lose 1-0 in game 3.
This has been a brutal stretch:
In our last 7 series, we've lost 14 games, only the sweep of DT makes the number look even somewhat decent. Without that, we're 4-14.
Of those losses
9 of 14 are by one run
6 of 14 were in extra innings and two others were won in the other team's last AB
Of the 14, 12 were either by one run, in extras, or in the other team's last AB.
So, do we just suck enough to barely lose games or is there some bad luck coming my way here?
Pujols and Werth are both at 194 over the past 10 games and Hunter has hit 171.
I should add that 3 of the 7 wins were by a run also so we're playing a lot of close games.
Jet
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by superflymacdaddyjuice » Fri Nov 11, 2011 8:49 am
There have been a lot of one run tilts in general. It appears more than the usual.
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