NLD 30 - Smell the glove!

[ArrylT]

You put your right handed reliever in,
You put your right handed reliever out,
You put your right hand in,
And you shake it all about,

You do the hokey pokey
and you turn yourself around
That what it's all about.

[joethejet]

[quote:e1a7d1f5d6="ArrylT"]You put your right handed reliever in,
You put your right handed reliever out,
You put your right hand in,
And you shake it all about,

You do the hokey pokey
and you turn yourself around
That what it's all about.[/quote:e1a7d1f5d6]

Must be Friday. AT's been drinking again. ;)

P.S. I'll be joining him in a couple hours! :)

[Semper Gumby]

[img:1949bccbec]http://cdn.jockpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/phillies3.jpg[/img:1949bccbec]


With a near third of the season in the record books, it is time for the "buy" and "sell" post series - hosted by my Vice President for Sabermetrics.

She is readying her analysis and will pitch her thoughts on post-draft wisdom over the next several days.

:wink:

[joethejet]

Holy Smokes! One thing Semper, you sure she doesn't work for Stoney???? She *is* wearing a Phillies cap! ;)

Had an "interesting" thing happen tonight. Lost my SP in the first inning and the 5th inning of the first two games for three games. :( :evil: :x Are you kidding me?

Anyone see something like that before?

Wow, I thought our division was close, but look at the Central!!!! :shock:


Jet

[Semper Gumby]

I'm not surprised by the tight races in the East and Central

I'm surprised by the two teams in the West though.

Will see how the season plays out with the rolls working the other way. :wink:

[bigmahon]

[quote:c8ca2514a0="Chief_Wahoo"]I'm not surprised by the tight races in the East and Central

I'm surprised by the two teams in the West though.

Will see how the season plays out with the rolls working the other way. :wink:[/quote:c8ca2514a0]

That's what I'm talking about!! :lol: :lol:

[joethejet]

[quote:04543b1188="Chief_Wahoo"]I'm not surprised by the tight races in the East and Central

I'm surprised by the two teams in the West though.

Will see how the season plays out with the rolls working the other way. :wink:[/quote:04543b1188]

Easy to be surprised by the two teams in the West... they're 13-7 and 13-5 in one runners. That'll help you overperform every time!

Jet

[Semper Gumby]

A working hypothesis

[i:f2a6df7620]James Shields(2-5) was hit with the loss. It was a tough loss for him as he did not allow an earned run in his 7 innings of work.[/i:f2a6df7620]. A Darwin Barney error resulted in 5 unearned runs that inning.

Through Game 60, my team has allowed 26 unearned runs on the road (28 errors, 290 innings) compared to 5 unearned runs at home (11 errors, 255 innings). For base running, 23 attempts compared to 15 at home. Of course, the success rate is better at home. If I review the line scores, I trust teams run more on me at National Park than on the road and I figure teams are more aggressive taking the extra base on the road too.

[b:f2a6df7620]Hypothesis: the game board logic favors home team visitor's forced errors and aggressive base running. [/b:f2a6df7620]

In reviewing this league and my 50+ teams (200x, 70s, 80s, and ATGx), I observed that more than 75% of my teams experienced more errors and base running outs on the road than at home. While other factors such as replacement player via injury do attribute to errors, I do not always field injury prone teams. If I can, I avoid the brittle SS or 2B

Anyone else notice this outcome before I surface it with the masses?

[Jeepdriver]

You all keep talking over-performing. We over-performed to 105 wins last season you know. :wink:

[joethejet]

Hey Jeep, Just saying that one run games tend to be decided on the timing of good die rolls. But, Hey, you may break your own record this time around! ;)

Actually, I'm just trying to make Big M feel better about his record. ;) Of course, Keyz and Smoke have really gotten the short end of the close games.

Semper, Bernie's always been pretty vague about the what the "home field" settings mean. Maybe running and errors factor into that. I always thought it was more ballpark related, but perhaps there's more. we have allowed the exact same number of runs home and away so far, BUT 12 more are unearned on the road. I haven't looked at enough teams to know whether that's abnormal or not. If it were, that means you'd have to field better at home or the number of errors would be thrown off. The interesting thing is that we've made more errors at home so far.

Jet