NLD 14

[Wineman]

Silver - Thanks for the feedback. I think you are right on about several points. Your record backs up the fact that ratings alone won't drive success in this league. Several of our players don't fit our ballpark. I think we've gotten some bad breaks, too. Anyways, I appreciate the feedback.

Semper - You've got to fire someone after that debacle. We're trying to wrap up the A Rod sweepstakes and your clowns let us sweep. Ugh!

[ArrylT]

Well I think that sweep against me just ended any faint hopes of finishing above .500. Probably should have made some moves, but unlike last season I just did not know where to shake things up, so will probably see the season through with this motley crew of mine. Who knows ... maybe I'll end up with A-Rod. :wink:

[Jeepdriver]

Hopefully just a blip on the radar screen, but I've lost four series in a row, 1-2 in all four.

No hasty moves, but I'm watching you guys. Ship up or we may have to ship out.

[qksilver69]

Yeah, you know Wineman, the interesting thing is, I think TSN has gotten a LOT better about eliminating the huge value picks, especially this past season. What that means is, given equal salaries and reasonable management, you'll see a lot more parity in SOMO than before.

The [b:3e9ea3b29a]only[/b:3e9ea3b29a] thing TSN can't and won't put a dollar value on is the park, and how the manager uses it, so I think it takes on much more importance than in previous years. You could have a mediocre park fit in 2003 & make up for it by picking out the great value guys via ratings like yours/JTJ's or Lucky's, but my experience this year is telling me that's not as true as it once was.

JTJ, do your ratings from year to year confirm a lower "value differential"? Be curious to compare Lucky's ratings this year to prior years, he computed the "true" value vs. SOM value....

[joethejet]

Silver,

I don't generally come up with an expected dollar value like Lucky does so that's a hard thing to measure. What I *have* noticed is that HRs are overvalued vis-a-vis the ratings and high OB guys are undervalued. I think that Rig and the beta guys have also done a better job of not letting a "Venafro" slip through too.

So Silver, question for you, if you don't mind, what park do you think *would* fit our team? We had a heck of a time trying to figure that out and may have really messed up there.

The other thing to point out in the NLD is that we have some of the best managers around and no one really makes huge mistakes (except maybe us! ;)) so that it comes down to some luck and getting the little things right. Looks like it's our turn to take it on the chin. :(

Jet

[Jeepdriver]

Personally I think you honed in on something there Joe. With all the Managers being so good in NLD, luck will definitely play a factor. I did not see a huge difference between my NLD 12 team and NLD 13 team, but their records were completely different. Sometimes no matter what you do you're going to have a team that flops, and there's nothing you can do about it.

[qksilver69]

Really tough call on a park for your team Joe, for a bunch of reasons.

- You have 2 top hitters that are very RH or LH - Cabrera/Shelton & Teixeira/Valentin. In real life Cabrera/Shelton are not so park-dependent while Teix/Val are.

- You have a bunch of RHP who don't give up a lot of BP HR to LH.

- Your pen is heavily weighted towards getting out RHB, and it's getting crushed, it's just plain mediocre after Carrasco. Chris Hammond pitching 80 innings is killing your SPs' ERA - I think he has too many natural XBH vs RH to be useful this year, though I tried him on other teams before I figured that out.

So I'd want a park that protects your weak 'pen more. And I'd like to try to give Tex & Val enough BP HR that they'd be better than bad, so my pick would likely be Washington or Florida - the lower BP singles would make a pretty big difference on your staff WHIP & ERA, and the downgrade to the power from Tex & Val would be marginal....

[joethejet]

Silver, great points. We thought it was a tough call too! 8) That's one problem you get when you build a team without a park in mind. :?

In the end we decided against those parks because their HRs for LHB (and Tex and Val will hit LH most of the time) were lower than PNC AND we have a very low OB team. We needed more singles to not hit only solo shots! (or so our logic, as flawed as it may be, goes :oops: ) We knew we'd have at least 5 and frequently 6 LHB in the lineup v RHP so the singles would help. Also, our pitching staff has pretty low OBs so we figured they could handle it. Guess not. :(

Yeah, we don't like our pen much. Hermanson is servicable, but not getting Guardado made a difference. The ratings say that Hammond shouldn't have that many on when he gives up HRs, but his walks on the real season have turned into twice that in our League. :( I don't think he'd always be this bad, but maybe so). We took him based on his rating being better than what was left and figured PNC would help him v RHB. Probably should have taken a backward RHP instead.

Course, our "heavily weighted" pen is getting hit as hard by RHB as by LHB. The only pitcher with an ave v RHB under .290 is Carrasco! :shock: Hermanson and Madson are both over .300! :o Go figure. I gotta say that's some bad luck there.

We figured we'd get more IP out of our starters, especially Smoltz, and not have to use the 3 so-so guys so much, but they've been lit up also. :(

Best laid plans eh?

Thanks a lot for your comments. You can be sure we'll take them into consideration next time around! :D

Jeep,

[quote:a31518b3bb] luck will definitely play a factor[/quote:a31518b3bb]

It sure feels like that to us. Even tonight, we take 2 from the Mighty Silver, but in the game we lose, we give up 3 unearned runs including 2 in the 8th of a tie game. :( One was a T Rating (1-8) and the other was a single and an error by Kapler (2e6).

OTOH, Smoltz tosses a 2 hitter in the first game! :shock: Could he be turning the corner????? AND, WE ACTUALLY WON A ONE RUN GAME IN EXTRA INNINGS! :shock: :) The game winner was a walk off by Teixeira, of all people, and our sucky pen, after Hermanson blows the save, goes 7.1 IP and only allows a pair of runs.

Maybe we can make a run at .500. That would be quite an accomplishment after the stretch we've had.

Jet

[Jeepdriver]

I feel better today after taking a series from a good first place club. I'm thinking my slump was just a "natural progression" as no one can win [i:451f5b5030]every [/i:451f5b5030]series. :)

Meanwhile Sandy's club has kinda fallen off the radar but he has opened up an 8 game lead there in the East. Semper has fallen back and Smokey has gotten hot with an impressive winning streak. Thought I would give it a mention as I've been in the East and they get little pub, and naturally so, but nevertheless they have to be reckoned with. :)

[Jeepdriver]

Also, Niner must have known or had a premonition that Wright was going to have a 4 hit game in the finale of our series cause he tried to take him out in the first game with not one, but[b:08a3b5b247] two[/b:08a3b5b247] hit by pitches. Wright's a little bruised up this morning, but he stayed in the game and showed a lot of spunk there after having that target placed on his chest. :) :wink: