NLD 13 Draft thread

Postby Semper Gumby » Mon May 08, 2006 6:06 pm

Joe,

I'm working with conservative settings on every switch possible to include regular closer (normal closer rules). I may have changed the closer strategy once or twice when I had Haren, Lee, and Roberston pitching in a series but typically work in a non-closer rule ploy.

Otherwise, explain how Kenny Rogers works 11 innings last night and I'll buy HAL pulls them automatically.

I understand the HAL formulation on bull pen management. If you look at my statistics (not that this becomes part of my fact base for the coding issues) -

[list:58706fe1a1].5 runs below the league average
~.25 runners less per inning of work
Pedro / Peavy / Prior among league leaders in pitching categories
but my team is middle of the pack in complete games yet I pitch in PETCO[/list:u:58706fe1a1]

Diamond Kings have 10 more complete games than my team and still have a worse record than my own.

Otherwise, Wagner leads the league in games finished but is 5th in saves (80% rate). So, he appears in slightly more than 60% save situations (16 saves with 4 blown chances - 2 wins / 3 losses).

If I've limited the switches for conservative relief and removing a starters doesn't increase my team's chances to score runs (not pinch-hitting for the pitcher), why is my reliever made so many appearances as my starters are among the league leaders in pitching performance?

:roll:
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Postby MARKHUARD » Mon May 08, 2006 6:43 pm

Look at your top two SPs.

Pedro (S7*): In five of the last ten starts, he has 3 CGs and two 8 IP. That's half of his starts! In his eight of his last 10 starts, he has pitched into the 7th inning or later. What more do you want out of an S7*????

Peavy(S7*): At two-thirds of Pedro's $$$, he has three CGs and pitched into the 8th inning or later in five of his last ten starts. Not bad for a pitcher going in the high $5 mil range.

It sounds as though you would only be satisfied if "conservative" was programmed as that every starter goes 8 innings or more and Wagner pitches the 9th inning only if necessary. The other RPs should appear if and only if the team is getting rocked. That would be quite an accomplishment, a terrific overperformance and some great overusage for a bunch of S7 and S6 starting pitchers.
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Postby Jeepdriver » Tue May 09, 2006 9:40 am

Has anyone noticed Todd Walker's stats since I picked him up shortly after the season started (when Freel went down for the 4th time)? Pretty monster stats in about 100 Plate Appearances, which is a good sampling.

Anyhoo, never seen him used before, but in a $100M league, he's a good platoon vs. lefties.
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Postby Semper Gumby » Tue May 09, 2006 10:36 am

Beach,

I'd love for [b:0e6e360a7b]conservative[/b:0e6e360a7b] to mean [b:0e6e360a7b]conservative[/b:0e6e360a7b].

The reason I have my SPs (slow hook) going the distance now is I have almost every switch turned such as "mop up" for my relievers except Wagner and Politte to include every manager setting for "conservative" or regular closer.

Presuming [b:0e6e360a7b]aggressive [/b:0e6e360a7b]relief means HAL pulls your starters / pitchers earlier (e.g., ~ 1 or 2 on base events shorter than the POW), than the conservative settings should provide that my starters go 1 or 2 base events longer than their POW (fatugue hits still happen but my pitcher goes a little further).

Otherwise, I have a dozen or so examples in this league where HAL has pulled a starter around the 6th or 7th inning without (arguably) the POW being reached.


Under the Advance Rules -

[quote:0e6e360a7b]A pitcher reaches his POW in one of three ways:

A. He reaches his POW inning (or any inning after that) and allows any combination of three hits or unintentional walks in the same inning. His POW begins with the next batter after the third hit and/or walk.

B. He reaches is POW inning (or any inning after that) and allows any combination of four hits or unintentional walks in any two consecutive innings. His POW begins with the next batter after the fourth hit and/or walk.

C. He pitches beyond his limit. A starting pitcher automatically reaches his POW if he pitches more than 11 innings.[/quote:0e6e360a7b]

[b:0e6e360a7b]Intentional walks, batters hit by a pitch or errors do not contribute to a pitcher's POW. Nor do any hits or walks that occur before the pitcher's POW inning.[/b:0e6e360a7b]

So, Pedro has a POW of 7 and becomes fatigues as soon as the third hit and/or intentional walk occurs in the 7th inning. Where HAL has pulled Pedro - this typically hasn't occurred - in several cases he yielded one hit or an error resulted in a base runner.

If Pedro can retire the side in the 7th inning, he can become fatigued in the following innings by, for example, yielding two hits in the 8th inning and two walks in the 9th inning. He would reach his POW with the last hit, in mid-inning (i.e., 9th inning).

Yes, the 9th inning.

So my desires to [b:0e6e360a7b]abuse[/b:0e6e360a7b] a S7 rating isn't anything more than getting HAL to allow Pedro to pitch a few more batters after reaching his POW and assuming the ill-effect it has on the fatigue outcomes (extra hits).

Otherwise, I'm trying to get the game engine to respond to its coding.
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Postby qksilver69 » Tue May 09, 2006 10:49 am

Semp - agressive/conservative/normal has zero to do with your SPs. It only affects the frequency with which HAL will pull your RPs once the SPs have left the game. QuickHook is the only setting which gets SPs out sooner & affects POW checks, otherwise it'd be redundant with the pen settings.

Also, I believe we are not under Advanced rules anymore. We are under SuperAdv with pitch counts as of last year, if I recall the post from Bernie correctly, because people started complaining upon seeing 200+ pitch outings from SPs like the Unit in 2004. I may be wrong, but I remember something to that effect and I don't see ultra-high pitch counts anymore....

You may get better answers if you start to ask questions of Bernie/others in order to understand the rules & settings before assuming something is wrong with the code.
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Postby Semper Gumby » Tue May 09, 2006 11:42 am

[quote:e7f84b8a23]I believe we are not under Advanced rules anymore. We are under SuperAdv with pitch counts as of last year, if I recall the post from Bernie correctly, because people started complaining upon seeing 200+ pitch outings from SPs like the Unit in 2004. I may be wrong, but I remember something to that effect and I don't see ultra-high pitch counts anymore.... [/quote:e7f84b8a23]
You are right about the Super Advance rules. As for my settings, I have my starters on "slow hook" and that didn't work as well until I changed the manager strategy and every other options. I also have 80s teams that have had the same problem (makes it harder when you don't know the cards). However, HAL pulling any pitcher in the 7th inning after he tosses 6 2/3 innings of hitless ball is nonsense.

To your reference on pitch counts as the secondary trigger, this factor seems misplaced as illustrated by this example:

[code:1:e7f84b8a23]Umbrella Shack IP H R ER BB SO HR PC ERA
K.Rogers 11 4 1 1 3 4 0 129 3.57
M.Rivera WIN(4-4) 2 1 0 0 1 3 0 29 2.86
B.Howry SAVE(2nd) 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 12 2.44
Totals 14 5 1 1 4 9 0

Jarheads IP H R ER BB SO HR PC ERA
K.Wood 7 2/3 2 0 0 1 12 0 90 0.00
B.Wagner BS(4th) 3 1/3 3 1 1 0 3 0 47 1.87
D.Riske 1 1/3 1 0 0 1 0 0 20 6.75
T.Mulholland 0 1/3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2.51
C.Politte LOSS(2-3) 1 1/3 1 1 0 1 0 0 27 2.27
Totals 14 7 2 1 3 15 0[/code:1:e7f84b8a23]

Why didn't HAL relieve Rogers (129 pitches and Kenny didn't have the lead in this example) but he felt happy to relieve Wood (90 pitches)?

Otherwise, you are also right about the Super Advance rules for starters but rarely have my pitchers required relief (early pulls) where I've cited the ad hoc approach to the game.

[quote:e7f84b8a23]27.55 A starter who "doesn't have it" may "lose his stuff" before his POW inning. If a starter gives up 5 runs in any one inning, 6 runs in any two consecutive innings, or 7 runs in any three consecutive innings, consider him fatigued and convert all readings followed by dots to SINGLE** (all other runners advancing two bases).[/quote:e7f84b8a23]

The idea that TSN implemented an additional feature thats isn't listed on the FAQ or Rules makes me raise my eyebrow.

If this is true (TSN bolted on a parameter that is triggered by pitch count) , then maybe

[quote:e7f84b8a23]You may get better answers if you start to ask questions of Bernie/others in order to understand the rules & settings [b:e7f84b8a23]before assuming something is wrong with the code[/b:e7f84b8a23].[/quote:e7f84b8a23]

Seems to point to the later and not the former ([b:e7f84b8a23]wrong is the wrong word [/b:e7f84b8a23]- maybe disclosure of the triggers would be better).

BTW, I also remember TSN had nothing wrong with the code when we had power hitters reaching the ceiling. I recall on the CD-ROM system, the game engine will track record setting paces (hitters cards?). So, we may have something here at work on the cards that keeps the players statistics as realistic as possible.
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Postby Ninersphan » Tue May 09, 2006 12:24 pm

Not that I'm saying this has happened in your case Semp but it is VERY possible for a Starter to become fatigued BEFORE his point of weakness inning using the Super advanced rules:

[quote:ecc183093e]27.55 A starter who "doesn't have it" may "lose his stuff" before his POW inning. If a starter gives up 5 runs in any one inning, 6 runs in any two consecutive innings, or 7 runs in any three consecutive innings, consider him fatigued and convert all readings followed by dots to SINGLE** (all other runners advancing two bases).

[/quote:ecc183093e]

Again given your starters I'm sure this is not the case EVERYTIME they've been pulled early, but it could be a factor in one or 2 starts.
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Postby MARKHUARD » Tue May 09, 2006 12:26 pm

You were up 1-0 in the 8th inning using a S6. You put the tying baserunner on base and HAL brought in Wagner (whom you stated many, many times that you want to pitch until his arm falls off) to face the next batter and save the game for you.

If HAL hadn't brought in Wagner in the 8th inning and you lost the game, you would have been screaming about THAT. :roll: You can't have it both ways.
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Postby joethejet » Tue May 09, 2006 2:41 pm

Semp,

Beach is right about using Wagner in that game. I would think *you* would have brought him in yourself.

As for why Rogers kept going, he had a low pitch count, never got tired, and wasn't really in trouble until the 11th when he retired Everett and Lofton with two on. Since it was a tie game, he just kept going. I don't know what the settings are for him, but those would appear to be "slow hook", but not necessarily.

Now, for a better example, look at my game from last night:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/league/boxscore.html?group_id=624&g_id=510

Why did Hal pull Zito?

Jet
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Postby Semper Gumby » Tue May 09, 2006 2:54 pm

Beach,

Unfortunately, you misread my ire.

The majority of my postings center on games I won and where my starters are pulled early (~7th inning or earlier).

In 2006, I have just one team and it happens to be a pitching team.

So, its center of gravity is pitching and my resulting box score reading "joy" is seeing Pedro / Peavy / Prior dominate opposing teams' bats.

If I had a Coors team and big bats, I'd generate "joy" out of reading how my cheap bat might break 50 HRs.

As for the Wood's example, here is the inning recap -

[code:1:37986b4d5c]*** BOTTOM OF INNING 6 ***
0 D.Mirabelli 4 Walk b-1
0 1 A.Everett 4 Line Out b-0
1 1 K.Lofton 2 Force Play 1-o b-1
2 1 W.Helms 6 Ground Out b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 7 ***
0 C.Delgado 1 Ground Out b-0
1 M.Young 3 Strike Out b-0
2 R.Sexson 3 Strike Out b-0
*** BOTTOM OF INNING 7 ***
0 P.Polanco 2 Fly Out b-0
1 J.Kent 3 Strike Out b-0
2 E.Young 6 Line Out b-0
*** TOP OF INNING 8 ***
SUBSTITUTE 1B- Wes Helms
SUBSTITUTE 3B- Felipe Lopez
SUBSTITUTE LF- So Taguchi
0 A.Jones 6 Strike Out b-0
1 M.Mora 3 Strike Out b-0
2 J.Varitek 2 Single b-1
SUBSTITUTE P - Billy Wagner
SUBSTITUTE PR- Juan Pierre
2 1 1 Stolen Base 1-2
2 2 R.Belliard 6 Strike Out b-0[/code:1:37986b4d5c]

According to the POW settings, Woods didn't exceed his S6 rating as:

[list:37986b4d5c]He didn't get hit hard before he reached the 6th inning

He didn't yield a hit during his 6th inning of pitching

He yielded just one hit in the 7th inning[/list:u:37986b4d5c]

Otherwise, he dominated the pitching match-up by whiffing 12 batters with just 3 batters reaching base during his outing.

Would you have relieved Wood at PETCO when he would face Belliard (negative clutch - RH) and Wilkerson?

Based on how Belliard and Wilkerson have performed to date, I wouldn't.

Otherwise, Wagner is set as my closer only and not as my set-up man.
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