Ultimate Strat League Chat

[joethejet]

Hi J,

Yeah, these discussions are always interesting and quite often I learn something, either about my ratings or about the different ways to put a team together.

I'll address all the points one-by-one here:

Sorry I missed on the riot, I think that I missed it because it didn't look like he had enough OBs or I thought it didn't help your rating. In anycase, putting him in there raises your rating to 2067.

[code:1:5bfa88ee55]
O Rating -> 7881
P Rating -> 5190
Fielding -> 624
P+F -> 5814
Overall -> 2067
[/code:1:5bfa88ee55]

Sometimes I have to guess a little at lineups.

Personal opinion Guzman is best as a DH. A 3e31 at SS will kill you in terms of missed DPs, hits and errors. He's weak both ways and has no speed, but he does have good OB, clutch and hits on his card. All the triples help too. You can somewhat overcome his poor glove because of Ojeda and your two 1's in the OF. So far he's made only 5 errors. Now THAT is luck for sure! ;) Even accounting for injuries, he's due for a spate of errors.

I didn't mean to denigrate your 3b platoon. You're right about their price and performance. I was just making observations about their ability.

When I'm talking about power, I'm talking about HRs. Yes, Crawford has decent TBs, especially v LHP. I don't think he's all that good v RHP due to his low OB and basically no HRs.

You make a good observation about your TBs. You have one of the better TBs in the league. Remember, however, that your Offense numbers are brought down by the park you play in and the ratings I posted reflect that. Other team's O ratings will be higher because of their park.

Ratings don't look at the lineups of the other teams in your division. I don't consider a 5 LHB lineup "mostly Right-handed" so there are actually 5 teams that can put a majority of LHBs out there. And that's not looking at teams that might be able to fit another LHB in there when the situation dictates (like we can)

Is Shearn really going to face twice as many LHB as RHB given what you said about lineups? Seems unlikely to me, but that's what he's done so far. Seems to me when I have those guys, they face a bunch of RHBs. But, hey, if you can get a 2.31 ERA out a guy who costs just over a buck, you ARE going to overperform any ratings! Not sure how you're getting those numbers from him.

I don't think the ratings undervalue those players, but it also doesn't assume that you'll get those percentages.

Your rating is undoubtedly lower than might be the real case because in a lot of leagues your RHP would be facing more LHB than RHB. That's NOT the case so far and may not be. Hence you're going to do better.

Also, being 5-1 in extras and 9-5 in one runners will help a team out. Right now we're 0-6 :shock: and 9-10. Losing a lot of heart breakers. That, my friend, comes down to luck. It *is* a dice game after all. ;)

Remember, the number aren't "my opinions", they're a function of a formula.

Walks don't count as much as hits.

Ratings don't forecast an ERA, but runs allowed when combining Pitching and Fielding.

Guys with high walks have to avoid rolling on the hitter's card when they've loaded the bases. Your hard guys might be doing that, do some extent. Same with high HR guys, you have to avoid those "real" HRs when guys are on base. If you're getting a lot of solo shots, well, that's all in the timing of the dice now isn't it? ;)

I don't use the same balance for all RH or LH pitchers, but I do assume that Hal or the other managers will set their lineups to disadvantage the pitcher you have in there. Maybe this doesn't happen in ADs, but it *does* happen in the Live Draft league (NLD) that Jeep and I play in.

Every team's rating is specific to the schedule they play. That's one reason why your O rating is as low as it is. If you played Jeep's schedule, your rating would be
[code:1:5bfa88ee55]
O Rating -> 8105
P Rating -> 5357
Fielding -> 624
P+F -> 5981
Overall -> 2124
[/code:1:5bfa88ee55]

OK, enough for now.

Jet

[J-Pav]

[quote:6d92479379="joethejet"]Hi J,

Yeah, these discussions are always interesting and quite often I learn something, either about my ratings or about the different ways to put a team together.

I'll address all the points one-by-one here:

Sorry I missed on The Riot, I think that I missed it because it didn't look like he had enough OBs or I thought it didn't help your rating. In anycase, putting him in there raises your rating to 2067.

[code:1:6d92479379]
O Rating -> 7881
P Rating -> 5190
Fielding -> 624
P+F -> 5814
Overall -> 2067
[/code:1:6d92479379]

Sometimes I have to guess a little at lineups.

Personal opinion Guzman is best as a DH. A 3e31 at SS will kill you in terms of missed DPs, hits and errors. He's weak both ways and has no speed, but he does have good OB, clutch and hits on his card. All the triples help too. You can somewhat overcome his poor glove because of Ojeda and your two 1's in the OF. So far he's made only 5 errors. Now THAT is luck for sure! ;) Even accounting for injuries, he's due for a spate of errors.

[color=blue:6d92479379]On my first completed team, Guzman had 504 PAs and 17 errors. Paired w/ Furcal, my SSs scored over 100 runs. On other teams so far, I've used him w/ Uribe (hitters park) and McDonald (pitchers park) with equal success. Oddly enough, I didn't start winning regularly last season until I [i:6d92479379]abandoned[/i:6d92479379] my defense for Utley and Hall (3s) up the middle. Is defense more correctly priced into the salaries now? I believe it is.

I like Jeter (I carded him in the autodraft, as I did Teixeira), but have you noticed that he has only 27 runs in 281 PAs, while Guzman has 24 runs scored in only 177 PAs? Dice rolls and luck or value and efficiency? [/color:6d92479379]

I didn't mean to denigrate your 3b platoon. You're right about their price and performance. I was just making observations about their ability.

[color=blue:6d92479379]I don't like Prado at 3B vs. RHP. That being said, he should not be .286/.348/.381 vs. LHP and [b:6d92479379].192/.235/.255[/b:6d92479379] vs. RHP. You would expect that 35 hits points and 46 obp points would begin to show up by now. I ended up dropping Prado on another team...an indication to me that it's a card that HAL just can't love.

Spiezio currently has the job until HAL forces me back.[/color:6d92479379]

When I'm talking about power, I'm talking about HRs. Yes, Crawford has decent TBs, especially v LHP. I don't think he's all that good v RHP due to his low OB and basically no HRs.

You make a good observation about your TBs. You have one of the better TBs in the league. Remember, however, that your Offense numbers are brought down by the park you play in and the ratings I posted reflect that. Other team's O ratings will be higher because of their park.

[color=blue:6d92479379]This also confuses me. Because if your "canning" opposing parks, then hitters parks opponents are not penalized enough when they are in my park (or your park, for that matter). So do you configure ratings by combining a "home field" rating plus a 10/10/10/10 "road" park rating? Do the ratings recognize when a BP homer offense drops off the map in a particular pitchers park?[/color:6d92479379]

Ratings don't look at the lineups of the other teams in your division. I don't consider a 5 LHB lineup "mostly Right-handed" so there are actually 5 teams that can put a majority of LHBs out there. And that's not looking at teams that might be able to fit another LHB in there when the situation dictates (like we can)

[color=blue:6d92479379]I'm one of them though, so eight or so opponents lean more righty for [i:6d92479379]my[/i:6d92479379] pitchers.[/color:6d92479379]

Is Shearn really going to face twice as many LHB as RHB given what you said about lineups? Seems unlikely to me, but that's what he's done so far. Seems to me when I have those guys, they face a bunch of RHBs. But, hey, if you can get a 2.31 ERA out a guy who costs just over a buck, you ARE going to overperform any ratings! Not sure how you're getting those numbers from him.

I don't think the ratings undervalue those players, but it also doesn't assume that you'll get those percentages.

Your rating is undoubtedly lower than might be the real case because in a lot of leagues your RHP would be facing more LHB than RHB. That's NOT the case so far and may not be. Hence you're going to do better.

[color=blue:6d92479379]This seems true of the card set this year, not just this league. [/color:6d92479379]

Also, being 5-1 in extras and 9-5 in one runners will help a team out. Right now we're 0-6 :shock: and 9-10. Losing a lot of heart breakers. That, my friend, comes down to luck. It *is* a dice game after all. ;)

[color=blue:6d92479379]Yes, and I recognize my turn is coming. That's why I'm a happy camper w/ early success. Sometimes that "up week" to balance out the "down week" never comes and you end up stuck w/ a losing team. But sometimes too, the hot streak goes unreasonably long. I've come from behind before, but I'm never sad getting off to a good start.[/color:6d92479379]

Remember, the number aren't "my opinions", they're a function of a formula.

[color=blue:6d92479379]But the formula [i:6d92479379]is[/i:6d92479379] a function of (some form of) your opinion, no? Because if you're using say, an OPS formula, there is no way that my team would be only 85% as effective as your team or Jeep's team (i.e., my rating is 15% less than yours).[/color:6d92479379]

Walks don't count as much as hits.

Ratings don't forecast an ERA, but runs allowed when combining Pitching and Fielding.

Guys with high walks have to avoid rolling on the hitter's card when they've loaded the bases. Your hard guys might be doing that, do some extent. Same with high HR guys, you have to avoid those "real" HRs when guys are on base. If you're getting a lot of solo shots, well, that's all in the timing of the dice now isn't it? ;)

[color=blue:6d92479379]I think you overstate this somewhat. My pitcher can also walk three guys and get a pop out and a DP (I'm slightly above average in DPs) leaving an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 3.00. I see your point though, and agree it can be a function of the dice rolls, although I'm not convinced it drops my pitching to the middle of the heap.[/color:6d92479379]

I don't use the same balance for all RH or LH pitchers, but I do assume that Hal or the other managers will set their lineups to disadvantage the pitcher you have in there. Maybe this doesn't happen in ADs, but it *does* happen in the Live Draft league (NLD) that Jeep and I play in.

Every team's rating is specific to the schedule they play. That's one reason why your O rating is as low as it is. If you played Jeep's schedule, your rating would be
[code:1:6d92479379]
O Rating -> 8105
P Rating -> 5357
Fielding -> 624
P+F -> 5981
Overall -> 2124
[/code:1:6d92479379]

[color=blue:6d92479379]I think my team is ideally suited to both my ballpark and the rest of the league's ballparks. Petco does slow down my hitting, but I am convinced it slows down the offenses of my opponents much [i:6d92479379]more[/i:6d92479379].[/color:6d92479379]

OK, enough for now.

[color=blue:6d92479379]Good discussion though![/color:6d92479379]

Jet[/quote:6d92479379]

[joethejet]

Yeah, this is an interesting conversation.

A couple of points.

Jeter is majorly underperforming for me. No way he should be at .257, 70 points under his season. Roberts is almost as bad. I'm playing in Busch, not Petco! ;) My offense is uniformly underperforming. Someone is going to pay! ;) 8-)

If you're SS's (i.e. Furcal and Guzman didn't make at least 25 errors, you were pretty darn lucky. You're also forgetting about the extra hits and lost DPs that Guzman gives up.

I'm using the actual parks each team is playing in to calc their ratings. There is no canning. I customized each teams ratings for the actual ratio of parks they are playing in.

There are six teams counting yours with 5 or more LHBs. So, you have about a 50/50 mix. Still, it favors your strategy of Hard RHPs.

It will be interesting to see if Shearn keeps it up all season and in other seasons. If so, he's a HUGE bargain.


You're completely right about streaky teams. There's a LOT of variability from sim to sim. So, sometimes a team stays hot (or vice versa) for a whole season.

It's not an OPS formula, it's a bases calculation. Check out the web site for more info. I can answer questions if you still have some. This post is already too long.

My point about the walks and HRs is that high OB or High HR guys can be hot and cold depending on how the dice rolls. Your pitching is over performing the rating because guys like Shearn are facing a ton of LHB annd your SPs are facing a ton of RHB. The ratings don't figure that will be true in the most likely cases. More than likely if I balanced out the ratings for your ratio, your pitching would move up the charts.

I would agree that your team is well suited for your park. Lots of actual hits so that you're not dependent on the bp singles or HRs. Also makes sure that your pitchers won't get hurt as often with those High OBs. Still, you're suseptible to teams with many LHBs I would say.

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

[JOHNORDILLE]

I still say my offense is badly underperforming. I am in a hitter-friendly park, yet 7 of my 9 starters are hitting much below their cards.

Mccann: .227, .270 on the card (much below)
Lee: .294, .317 on the card
Utley: .298, .332 on the card (much below)
Feliz: .269, .253 on the card (slightly above)
Renteria: .266, .332 on the card (much below)
Alou: .296, .341 on the card (fewer at bats, I cut the other underperfomer)
Victorino: .281, .298 (slightly above)
Hart: .295, .287 (slightly below but within range)
Ramirez: .332, .278 (much below)

I have 5 starters that hit over .300 on their cards, yet not one of them is hitting over .300 in this series.
Rajai Davis has over 100 at bats, and is hitting .195, his card is .279.

If my team were hitting anywhere close to their cards, my season would be totally different. I have outscored my opponents as it is, yet am 8 games under .500. HAL is the equivalent of an NHL ref in my eyes :twisted:

[J-Pav]

[quote:9cd9ab0e3d="joethejet"]
I'm using the actual parks each team is playing in to calc their ratings. There is no canning. I customized each teams ratings for the actual ratio of parks they are playing in.

Jet
[/quote:9cd9ab0e3d]
This is hard for me to explain for some reason, but I hope I can get it to where you understand what I'm saying w/out drawing out a long conversation about the mechanics of the ratings.

There's two ways to visualize this (I think):

I pick a ballpark. Half of my rating comes from games at home. I play in 11 opposing ballparks, so half of my rating comes from performance in opposing ballparks.

You could either:

1. Sim my teams to play [i:9cd9ab0e3d]x[/i:9cd9ab0e3d] number of times in site specific ballparks, or

2. Use a "canned" (my word for "league average") opposing ballpark figure for road games (for simplicity's sake, say 10/10/10/10).

The reason I think the distinction is important is this:

I (we!) play in a pitchers park which lowers our offensive output; however, even with my lack of home run production, my team would likely score more runs in Citizen's Bank (but surrender more runs as well) than at home.

The way I see it, my offense would be a 9/10 in Citizen's Bank, an 8/10 in a neutral park and a 7/10 in RFK. Some Citizen's Banks teams would be 10/10 in Citizens Bank, but 2/10 in RFK. If the ratings are calculated for a neutral opposing ballpark, the hitters teams [i:9cd9ab0e3d]rank better[/i:9cd9ab0e3d] in ratings, but underperform in pitchers parks.

So if by ratio you mean some sort of average (even if it's 9/8/11/11 or some such), the ratings would ALWAYS over-estimate hitters parks teams and under-estimate the pitchers park teams.

As an example, [b:9cd9ab0e3d]Spock[/b:9cd9ab0e3d] is hitting 100 points below his home field SLG rating on the road (I'm defining "the road" here as 10/10/10/10, but I recognize that it's actually slightly different). This "at a glance" figure [i:9cd9ab0e3d]has to understate [/i:9cd9ab0e3d]his SLG in RFK type fields, which must be far below .400 at this point in time.

[No disrespect to [b:9cd9ab0e3d]Spock[/b:9cd9ab0e3d] either, as I thought from the beginning he has one of the better offenses, and it is just underperforming so far].

I don't know if this is just making things more confusing, but I hope I'm steering you in the direction I'm trying to get at.

Maybe add this:

Six Citizen's Banks, six RFKs. The road is defined as 10/10/10/10, but nobody plays in a 10/10/10/10 ballpark. Do the ratings account for that? Therefore, the highest "rated" team would be the hitters team that is best suited to win at RFK w/out giving up the home field advantage to the opposition. This is what (I think) I did w/ this particular autoleague.

Are you following me?

However, if all this were true, you would never play in a pitchers park, because I'm assuming in any given league you would eat your own cooking and still create a team with the best "rating". Like my team, I think you have an offense very similar to my own which performs well in all ballparks (pitching, too).

So the mystery to me is:

1. We each think we created the "ideal" team.
2. I see mine as better (of course), but see yours close behind.
3. You see yours as better, but mine as middle of the road.
4. Therefore, I'm concluding my team is being penalized by your ratings.
5. So where is my team specifically deficient?

The best I can tell is that the ratings have not accounted for how difficult it is to hit in a pitchers park. Also, I think the teams with 1s at SS and 2B are way overcompensated for "ratings points" that don't materialize into net runs. Lastly, the game specific usage and league characteristics haven't found there way into the ratings (exploiting one-sided hitters and pitchers for instance).

As with you, not a personal critique or a critique of your team or ratings, just observations made in the spirit of finding the grail!

[JOHNORDILLE]

J,

I completely agree my offense is underperforming. Half my games are in a hitters park, yet none of my 5 guys that hit .300 or more on the cards are doing that. My pitching is probably reflective of the ball park to a degree, because all the WHIP numbers (most anyway) are above the cards.
I've outscored my opposition, and am 6 games under .500.

[Jeepdriver]

Last night I lost all 3 games in my opponents last at bat. Lost in the bottom of the 14th, bottom of the 10th, and bottom of the 9th.

In addition, I had 20 LOB in Game 1 and 12 in Game 2.

You can't lose 3 and have more heart-break than I did in those games last night.

[J-Pav]

As the thread spins towards [b:f703e71f46]woe is me[/b:f703e71f46] territory, I'll add my 1-5 record when I faced the [i:f703e71f46]Music[/i:f703e71f46], who is now responsible for 20% of my current losses.

:o :shock: :? :x :evil:

[joethejet]

Hey J,

You're making this more complicated than it is!

I put in the exact parks for every team and their own schedule. So, I have you playing 24 games in Citizen's and 81 in Petco with 12 in RFK and 6 in all the other league parks.

I did that for every team so, each team has it's own rating basis in a sense because they play a different schedule. I used to do it off of the league average but, as you point out, that was a flawed way to do it. In other words, your rating is for your team in the parks you play in. My rating is for my team in the parks I play in. Does that make sense now?

I've been trying to say this, but either I'm a lousy communicator or you just don't believe me! ;)

I think your offense is less than optimal in Citizen's because you have virtually no BPHRs to take advantage of the park. Same with my squad.

Oh, I don't think our team is "ideal". I think it is good, but it has it's flaws as any 80 mill team does

Your team is well crafted to take advantage of your park and the lineups your facing. That's why it is "over performing" the rating. Your SPs really aren't that good and your D doesn't help all that much. However, given that you're facing a majority of RHB, all the hard guys you have are going to do better. The park helps them too.

Your team is deficit in terms of defense, and SPs facing LHB heavy lineups. In fact, in terms of ratings, they are the worst in the league. Your pen walks too many guys so I expect that it will either leave a ton of guys on or give up big innings. Your rating is hurt, as I mentioned because Shearn is getting so many innings. His rating isn't very good, but the rating doesn't expect him to face 2 to 1 LHBs so if that continues, he's going to be very good for you. Even with all the IP that Shearn is getting, your RPs rank in the middle of the pack which means the rest of them are pretty good. The lack of BPHRs will hurt you in the HR parks.

As for strengths, you have good OB both ways, good hits on your card and TBs to go with them. excellent clutch as well. Soria is very tough and you're spotting the other guys effectively. Your pitching matches up well with Monster and Tornado in your division. You hit righties almost as well as lefties so there is good balance there. The team is well built for a Petco team with the exception that I think you could use better D. So, you're middle of the pack, primarily because of your SP and defense ratings. I think if you would have, let's say Vizquel at SS with an upgrade over Prado (maybe Tracy?) at 3b, your team would rate better.

I think the ratings take how difficult it is to hit in a pitchers park, I think they don't take into account that your hard RHP are going to face an inordinate amount of RHB. ;)

I think you're wrong about 1's and 2's. You probably haven't played the game FTF. They do turn into runs, both in terms of visible (i.e. errors) and things you don't see like DPs and hits. You're right that there is a specific assumption made about the number of RHB and LHB a pitcher will take given their ratings. You are very definitely taking advantage of that and that's the biggest part of why you're overperforming what would be expected. Plus, you are winning the close games which usually comes down to getting some good die rolls. ;) If that doesn't turn around, and it doesn't always, then you will end up on top in the end.

So, how about some observations about my team? ;)

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

[joethejet]

[quote:782da69c22="MrSpock29"]I still say my offense is badly underperforming. I am in a hitter-friendly park, yet 7 of my 9 starters are hitting much below their cards.

Mccann: .227, .270 on the card (much below)
Lee: .294, .317 on the card
Utley: .298, .332 on the card (much below)
Feliz: .269, .253 on the card (slightly above)
Renteria: .266, .332 on the card (much below)
Alou: .296, .341 on the card (fewer at bats, I cut the other underperfomer)
Victorino: .281, .298 (slightly above)
Hart: .295, .287 (slightly below but within range)
Ramirez: .332, .278 (much below)

I have 5 starters that hit over .300 on their cards, yet not one of them is hitting over .300 in this series.
Rajai Davis has over 100 at bats, and is hitting .195, his card is .279.

If my team were hitting anywhere close to their cards, my season would be totally different. I have outscored my opponents as it is, yet am 8 games under .500. HAL is the equivalent of an NHL ref in my eyes :twisted:[/quote:782da69c22]

Spock,

the only guys that are really under performing is McCann and Renteria. Normally you will have a couple of guys do that. You're facing all-star teams, your guys aren't going to hit or pitch as well as you would think. In addition, your park has high HRs, but not singles. You don't have a lot of BPHR hitters as you should in that park. In fact, you have no hitters with 8 bphrs v RHP! :shock: And, you are much better v LHP than RHP. You've faced 3 to 1 RHP to LHP. It's not a surprise you are where you are.

If you want to see a team that's underperforming take a look at my offense. ;)

Jet