Simple Question Re: BP-OBP

[cummings2]

considering that there are 10 ">" (BP-Single) rolls (most of the time) -combining pitcher and hitter.

Is a neutral park a 1-8 (BP-SI)? By neutral I mean one that doesn't add or take SI/OBP, I don't mean anything re: LH/RH slanted.

In which case, from a SI/OBP POV, Turner would yield, supposedly, the closest results to the hitters and pitchers projected stats given their cards.

For whatever reason I had always thought of neutral as 10.

[Coffeeholic]

Lemme answer one for you C2. :D

You'd have to believe that when putting together a card, SOM takes into account a players home park, not a neutral park. Hence, a player should play closer to his card when playing in his natural home field. :?

[cummings2]

Thnx coffee... ahem, excuse me Mr. Coffee. :wink: 8)

I think I did it again and didn't ask my Q. properly.

Let's see:

With few exceptions, most pitchers and hitters have 5 rolls that are BP-SI dependent:

e.g. (From Zito vs. RhB)
[quote:43f1f819a9]>10-fly(cf)C
>11-SINGLE(lf)[/quote:43f1f819a9]

So, if we take away all other hits from both pitcher's and hitter's card in an AB the hitter would have 4 rolls that would result in a >single and 6 rolls that would result in an >out.

Therefore in a hypothetical situation where only the BP-SI rolls would be in place, if we were to be in a BP where BP-SI = 0 then the hitter would be expected to hit .000 (0/216) if the Park's SI were rated = 20 then the hitter would be exected to hit .0462 (10/216).

If we were to turn the BP effects off then the hitter would be expected to hit .0185 (4/216)

My question is what BP-SI rate is necessary for the hitter to hit .185 Making the BP trully neutral.

In my head I came up with 8 (8*10/20= 4 =.185)

... I don't think i'm making any sense heree :lol:

[Mean Dean]

I think you're right about 1-8 being neutral, or at least, I don't see how you're wrong.

I think the confusion stems from this...

[quote:fb04bc28dd]In which case, from a SI/OBP POV, Turner would yield, supposedly, the closest results to the hitters and pitchers projected stats given their cards. [/quote:fb04bc28dd]
... which is of course wrong, since players are meant to replicate their real-life stats in their own stadium, not in a neutral stadium. But I bet you knew that and just "spoke" incorrectly :D

[cummings2]

Thnx Dean, it's a minor Q. but it had gotten stuck in my head so i thought of posting the Q.

... and about the quote... what can I say, I read it and even [i:df2cbb6f7e]I[/i:df2cbb6f7e] didn't know what I was thinking when I wrote it. I can have such a convouted way of expressing simple things. :shock: :oops: :wink:

Interesting to think that strictly from a BP-SI point of view, Petco of last year was almost neutral for Lefties.

Actually, I do have a Q about the replicating stats in their stadium:

Since most cards (hitters/pitchers) have the same ammount of BP-SI rolls, does that mean that the direct hit singles would be increased in the player's card that played say in RFK and one that played in Coors would be reduced?

-I am assuming that that way once you add the element of BP effects the results would replicate their real life stats more closely.

***I don't know about the whole thing of how the cards are biult by SOM. Interesting to know/learn.

Thnx again Dean :D

[MARCPELLETIER]

Strat-o-matic had always been clear that they consider 1-8 as being neutral. That said, 1-8 or 1-10 doesn't really make any significant change.

[quote:ba42fd5d47]Since most cards (hitters/pitchers) have the same ammount of BP-SI rolls, does that mean that the direct hit singles would be increased in the player's card that played say in RFK and one that played in Coors would be reduced?[/quote:ba42fd5d47]

YES. YES. YES. This is why one should use the TSN-tools carefully. When you look at hitters under 1M, and you rank them by best OPS, TSN gives you the list of the best OPS in REAL LIFE, not in Strat. So you end up with 3 of the top 4 OPS being Coors players (Barnes, Hawpe, Greene). These players have inflated REAL-LIFE stats, Hawpe and Greene had an OPS over .750, but their cards won't reproduce that level of performance in neutral stadiums. Fielder gets in the top 3 because his OPS in real life was built facing 97% of rhp, a feat he'll never accomplish in Strat. So he too ended up with REAL-LIFE OPS over what his card will likely reproduce. If you look at the top 10 best OPS under 1M, the only one coming from a pitching park is Jason Dubois, from Jacobs field.

But then again, you look at Dubois card, and you realize that Strat deflated his card too. He has 5 BP vs lhp that replace 2.55 direct HR, and he has vs rhp 6 BP that replace 3.1 direct HR. So he needs to play in a roughly 1-11 stadium for his card to reproduce his season stats. What happened?

In fact, Dubois played 3/4 of 2005 season in Wrigley, not in Jacobs Field. He hit 7 of his 9 homeruns with the Cubs, who play in Wrigley, an offensive stadium for right-handed hitters.

[cummings2]

Cool, Thnx a bunch M.W. Mr. Coffee and Dean -cool stuff I didn't know :)

Mucho gracias

[tersignf]

also applies with the clutch ratings of course- neg clutch factors in on teams like the yankees to temper the run production from some of their cards, whether they hit well in the clutch or not.
Just can't get around judging the cards--it's all that matters!