Base stealing

[Mean Dean]

When you originally asked "taking into account how often the pitcher holds the runner", I interpreted that as asking what is the total chance that you will steal a base, given that you're committed to stealing that base no matter what. I've tried to answer that hypothetical question, which is probably why this has gotten a little confusing. But, simply put, trying to steal a base when you have very little chance to make it is stupid, and there is no logical reason to do it (and getting back to the TSN game, even if you put stealing on "very aggressive", HAL still won't do it.) Realistically, you would never attempt the steal when Steve Stealer fails to get the lead and thus has a 25% chance to make it, nor are you likely to attempt it when Omar Moreno fails to get the lead and thus has a 50% chance to make it. (You are allowed to abort the steal attempt after you fail to get the lead; perhaps this is the point of confusion.) So, realistically, Omar's SB% is going to be 80%. It's just that he is going to be staying put 55.6% of the time.

(50% is not that far below the break-even point, which is around 65%, so if Moreno were facing an only slightly worse arm/hold combo, then stealing without the lead would be a viable option for him. You'd then get more total steals, at a lower SB% than you'd have if you only stole with the lead, but still an acceptable SB%. It's still not going to attempt steals that are bad percentage moves.)

The + symbol only translates into a single when the infield is in. The penalty for holding a runner is different. It is that the fielder's range worsens by 1, and that 20% of the outs on a gb(X) roll to that fielder are converted into singles.