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[visick]

Which Is Better For Strat: Stud Hitter Or Stud Pitcher?


By Kurt Engleman

Guest Writer
8/21/05







It’s one of the oldest arguments in baseball. Which is more important, pitching or hitting? More specifically, which would you rather have – the stud starting pitcher, or the stud outfielder?



The classic hot stove argument goes something like this: those in favor of pitching will argue that a starting pitcher has a more profound impact on the outcome of a single game than any position player could. While this may be true, those in favor of hitting will argue that an outfielder is contributing to a team’s success every day, while a pitcher only starts once every five days. Certainly someone who plays in 162 games is more valuable than someone who plays only 32 games. Which side is correct?



As Strat-o-Matic players, we can rephrase the question: how many times does an individual player’s card determine the outcome? If outfielders truly do “contribute more” to a team, this should be reflected by the number of times an individual outfielder’s card is involved in a given play.



So let’s break down a season’s worth of dice rolls for your typical Strat-o-Matic team. For these calculations, I have assumed a 162-game season, with 40 plate appearances per side per game. Outfielders are assumed to have 4.25 plate appearances per game, and pitchers are assumed to start 32 games, with 30 batters faced per game.



For our stud pitcher, the dice will be rolled 32*30=960 times while he is in the game. But not all of these rolls will be determined by the pitcher’s card. As we all know, half (480) of these rolls will be on the hitter’s card, and some of these rolls (133) will go to the X-chart. Based on this crude estimate, only 347 rolls are truly determined by our stud pitcher during the course of a season.



How about our all-star outfielder? He starts with 162*4.25=688.5 (let’s say 690) plate appearances. But only half of these dice rolls will be resolved on the outfielder’s card. Based on this crude estimate, only 345 rolls are truly determined by our all-star outfielder during the season.



So a first look indicates that a starting pitcher and an outfielder contribute almost an identical amount to a team, when this contribution is expressed in terms of “rolls on a card.” But now let’s add fielding to our calculations. Given a 162-game season, and 40 plate appearances per game, over the course of a season your team will face 900 dice rolls on the fielding X-chart (162*40=6480, 6480*30/216=900). These 900 dice rolls will be approximately distributed by position as follows:



Pitcher: 60 rolls

Catcher: 90 rolls

1st Base: 60 rolls

2nd Base: 180 rolls

Shortstop: 210 rolls

3rd Base: 90 rolls

Left Field: 60 rolls

Center Field: 90 rolls

Right Field: 60 rolls



As you can see, there is no difference in the number of “fielding rolls” a pitcher or corner outfielder will receive. A center fielder will receive 30 additional dice rolls, creating a small discrepancy in our original comparison (347 dice rolls for the pitcher vs. now 375 for the outfielder.).



Notice that if we were to move our stud outfielder to a middle infield position, his impact becomes much greater. Combining hitting and fielding, a shortstop’s card will be involved in 555 dice rolls, significantly more than any pitcher’s card.



Can we fine-tune our comparison even further? Of course! We can incorporate e-ratings, steal ratings, speed ratings, and bunting ratings (for both the pitcher and outfielder). We can throw in balk ratings, wild pitch ratings, and holds. I have not added these, because the impact is likely to be small, and I am not looking for an exact answer. For my purposes, it is sufficient to know that over the long hall, starting pitchers contribute just as much as position players, with the exception of middle infielders.



One of the better ways to use this information is through trades. In larger leagues, there will be at least one manager who will believe that starting pitchers simply “aren’t worth as much” as everyday players. If you have an outfielder you’re looking to shop, ask for a comparable pitcher plus another useful card in return, using the other manager’s logic. As long as both cards make your lineup, you will be the winner of the trade (from a dice rolling perspective).



The hot stove arguments will continue forever, but it is important to know how Strat-o-Matic has answered this question. More importantly, the question provides a useful example in breaking down Strat-o-Matic decisions into dice rolls, where games are won and lost.



Send feedback to comments@stratogists.com.

[1crazycanuk]

"The classic hot stove argument goes something like this: those in favor of pitching will argue that a starting pitcher has a more profound impact on the outcome of a single game than any position player could. While this may be true, those in favor of hitting will argue that an outfielder is contributing to a team’s success every day, while a pitcher only starts once every five days. Certainly someone who plays in 162 games is more valuable than someone who plays only 32 games. Which side is correct?"

I would think the pitcher is more important. It is harder to come by stud pitchers. They are the ones who put the ball in play. If they can throw strikes the outfielder never has to worry about the ball. And even though the pitcher plays every few days...they still have the ball in their hands way more than any outfielder during the course of a season. My verdict...the pitcher.

[geekor]

ahh but canuk, you are going by the 05 standard. Say in ATG2, where pitchers are more than plentiful, I'd grab a stud hitter anyday. In the 05 game, where stud pitching is rare, then I agree that pitching wins.

Besides his calculation isn't 100% correct. A * pitcher can go 40 starts, not 32, so it makes him even more valuable.

[Coffeeholic]

Very interesting Socalchiro. Thanks! 8)

Mind if I ask where you found this?

[visick]

http://www.stratogists.com/

[1crazycanuk]

I agree with you geekor. Yes, I was going by 2005. :wink: