My take on Clutch/Non-Clutch Hitters

[voovits]

Sorry to revive an old topic, but as a fan of clutch hitting, I want to point out that SOM themselves have realized the statistical insignificance of 1 seasons worth of clutch hitting. I don't understand how, but they supposedly compensate for that with each individual player to make it as realistic as possible.
This is taken directly out of the help file from the CDROM version of the game:

"Clutch hitting measures each player's ability to deliver the clutch hit. Strat-O-Matic's exclusive clutch hitting formula accurately measures every player's ability in these key situations. Traditional clutch hitting stats do not comprise enough situations to make them statistically significant. For instance a batter with 500 at-bats might only hit 110 times with runners in scoring position and perhaps 80 times in "close and late" situations. This total number of at-bats is not enough to truly gauge his clutch hitting ability, because in 190 at-bats a .250 hitter can be expected to swing anywhere between .187 and .313 just as a result of random statistical distribution. Strat-O-Matic's exclusive clutch hitting formula measures the outcome of every baserunner that the batter affected during the year. This detailed approach provides a true measurement of the batter's clutch hitting ability. Our system is implemented with 2 outs and runners in scoring position because in real-life that is traditionally the most difficult time to "come through" with a base hit. If the batter fails, there are no more chances to drive in those runners. Most batters will see their average go down in the clutch -- both in real-life and with our system."

Take it for what it's worth, but it seems they tried to take everything they possibly could into consideration.

[Chazbot]

I'm a fan of getting a clutch hitter when I can. But not afraid of taking one that is anti clutch like Wills. And like someone said already, the 1,2 hitters can get lots of chances to drive in runs if they are high hit men and clutch.

I've had a lot of success with clutch leadoff hitters. There is no guarantee that if you play clutch hitters that you are going to see a significant difference. First, you have to analyze each game to see if it paid off. You also have to consider how many chances your clutch guys have had versus chances for the not so clutch guys. That is a lot of time to spend if you have a few teams going.

I do think that it is wise to keep your primary pinch hitter with lots of $ on the card. He may get chances, and they may pay off, but it puts the man in a place where the chance exists. Such a small number of chances and you could have a case where the guy goes 8/10 in key spots. But if he bombs, it means nothing.

I think you would have to chart about 500 clutch hitting situations to have any sort of accurate assesment of the worth. I say look for the $ in the backup players and pinch hitters, that is where they can upset a game all by themselves for a small investment.

[SteadyEddie33]

Every time I hear the 'small sample' response --which is usually valid in statistical analysis threads--I think of a young player being told he's about to be sent back to AAA ball after going 4 for 40. I can hear his pleas of 'bb-but, skip, it's only 40 ABs???!' being met by, "kid, you're just not ready".

How often in real life, aside from engineering, do you really get a large enough sample before making a statistically justified decision? 8-)

[GR8YEAR68]

I just love these discussions. I have a habit of obsessing a little, or in this case, alot, over such issues. A big part of SOM games is the strategy. With it being no more than the roll of dice, to me, it becomes as simple as trying to break the bank in Vegus. Who of us can come up with the system to beat the game. The math can be as simple as the roll of a 7 happens most of the time followed by 6/8, ect.
In a non-DH league, I have my pitchers bunting, so the lead-off batter is facing a two out, runner in scoring position, situation, more often, so I would bat a clutch hitter there. Willie Wilson is considered a fine lead-off batter, Or many other rabbits, but because of the terrible clutch, I now bat the rabbits 8th, let the pitcher move them up, and/or have a stolen base, then the good clutch becomes very partical. I now love batting Al Simmons lead-off, as my father did in ATG I, where he got the record for hits from Al. He's not going to lead the league in RBIs, but he will produce in a very important area. Someone just opened a thread about the "T" rating, now my newest effort to exploit, work on, or trying to get the best % out of my next basestealer, over his statistical possibility of succsess. Oh those agravating dice rolls!!!

[childsmwc]

Clutch hitting as it is used by strat has nothing to do with how that player actually hit in the clutch over the regular season.

Clutch is a statistical RBI modifier used by strat-o-matic in an attempt to replicate RBI production by player in a season replay.

So for those of you arguing the effects real/imagined of clutch in baseball need not worry because these $ effects don't have any correlation to even the small sample of clutch at bats a player had during the season.

Unfortunately all of this goes out the window when you aren't using guys in the same way with the same teams etc. So clutch is pretty arbitrary in the all star context with which we play the game here at TSN.

It has a real impact on the game we play, but the statistical accuracy of who gets positive and negative clutch when we play the game in an all star type of format is close to zero.

Bbrool

[GR8YEAR68]

Someone wanted the option to turn off the clutch function in the game. Ok, how about turning off the injury function as well or maybe errors.
These are issues that make the gm fluid rather than static. I would love to see what kind of season The Mick would have without the injury risk. Clutch is a very small % in the gm, or how about GDP. DPs aggravate the hell out of me, but IS a very important part of the gm. Look at some cards, it seems that every other roll would result in one. But the league leader in DPs is generally around 30-35. A Small %. This gm IS NOT going to give you the realistic results some want unless you have all play in Forbes @ 60mil. You do have some options.
ATG4 greatly favores the hitter, so going with the flow, I'll try to get Kiner,Mays, and Maris in the same OF, in Fulton, and see who does best. Or play in Forbes, and see the others stomp the snot out of yah. 8-)

[iarzwashere]

so from what I take, you want the $ symbol to be in front Out on a players cards vs the $ in front of a Single/hit?

are there any other ways to tell if a player is clutch? can someone explain a little more clearly how one determines a clutch hitter or negative clutch hitter and are there varying degrees? any help is appreciated! ;)

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:092935347e]so from what I take, you want the $ symbol to be in front Out on a players cards vs the $ in front of a Single/hit? [/quote:092935347e]

Exact, $(out) turns an out into a positive clutch single.

[quote:092935347e]are there any other ways to tell if a player is clutch?[/quote:092935347e]

So a player with lots of $(out) will have a high positive clutch---Don't forget that readings at 7 have 6 more chances to happen than readings at 2 or 12. Sandoval has a negative clutch of -16 vs rhp, whereas Oscar Salazar has a positive clutch of +6. I see this by looking at the card and counting the chances, but the info is provided as well in different rating books and files that are offered on the web (usually priced at around 15$).

But like it was mentioned before, you should not try to have 9 hitters with positive clutch. My advice: go out there and pick the best players that fit your stadium, and then look at the clutch to determine the lineup. Typically, good clutch hitters are placed 5th or 6th in the lineup.

[iarzwashere]

thanks a lot marcus $ wilby!

[quote:d37df3b667="marcus wilby"][quote:d37df3b667]so from what I take, you want the $ symbol to be in front Out on a players cards vs the $ in front of a Single/hit? [/quote:d37df3b667]

Exact, $(out) turns an out into a positive clutch single.

[quote:d37df3b667]are there any other ways to tell if a player is clutch?[/quote:d37df3b667]

So a player with lots of $(out) will have a high positive clutch---Don't forget that readings at 7 have 6 more chances to happen than readings at 2 or 12. Sandoval has a negative clutch of -16 vs rhp, whereas Oscar Salazar has a positive clutch of +6. I see this by looking at the card and counting the chances, but the info is provided as well in different rating books and files that are offered on the web (usually priced at around 15$).

But like it was mentioned before, you should not try to have 9 hitters with positive clutch. My advice: go out there and pick the best players that fit your stadium, and then look at the clutch to determine the lineup. Typically, good clutch hitters are placed 5th or 6th in the lineup.[/quote:d37df3b667]