Managerial Settings- Base running, Base stealing and bunting

[worrierking]

Everything Maligned said is true and I use this philosophy as much as possible in Strat. The problem is that there are many circumstances when bunting and H & R do make sense. If you have a one-sided player like Kerry Robinson who is forced to bat against a lefty, his weak side, it may make sense to bunt or hit and run rather than let him just make an out. Your expected runs would go up by using the one-run strategies. This, however, is a challenge in getting Hal to use the strategies only in those circumstances. It's not that hard in face-to-face SOM because you control it entirely. But Hal has a mind of his own. Tweaking the settings so that Hal won't bunt in normal circumstances, but will in the unique occasions is difficult in my experience. Anybody have the settings figured out to make him behave?

[maligned]

Jaydingess:
I don't know if it's as simple as just being cautious against good arms and aggressive against bad ones. I think you can coast to some degree. Here's why: I think HAL looks at the final chance of a runner or basestealer being successful (i.e. 1-13 or 1-17) and then determines whether to send you. I don't think he looks at all the details of whether is the arm is good or the guy is supposed to be a good basestealer. So, if you have your settings on normal, HAL will send a basestealer on a 1-15 whether it's a slow guy going against a bad arm or a fast guy going against a good arm. Or, if you're set on aggressive, but the chance of being successful on a steal with a fast guy is only 1-10 because the catcher's arm is good, I don't think HAL sends him.
I recently played in a league in which numerous guys were not making day-to-day adjustments. However, several of them were very aggressive basestealers (you could tell by how many times they stole and how many times they got thrown out). But none of them tried to steal against me...I had 3 starting pitchers with great hold ratings and Jose Molina behind the plate. I know for a fact that not all the guys were changing their settings, HAL just wasn't running against me.
In short, I think you can put your settings where you want them and assume HAL will send guys more against bad arms and less against good arms. He just looks at the final numerical chance, then says go or stay.

Worrierking,
What you say is spot on. I don't actually think that aggression on the basepaths or squeeze bunting is always wrong in real-life baseball or face-to-face Strat...but we're not in control. You have to set your strategies in TSN Strat for generalities--otherwise, you sacrifice outs you shouldn't to get guys like K.Robinson to bunt more. Sorry no one seems to have any ideas for you!

[pedakrla]

It seems like there must be more to it than "HAL steals (or tries for the extra base) whenever the chance of success exceeds some threshold." For example, if that were true, then every time a given runner reached first base against a given pitcher/catcher in the same game, that runner would steal (or not steal).

But, I've seen cases where a base stealer does not try to steal early in the game. Then, in pretty much identical circumstances only the late innings, the runner does try to steal.

Anyone else noticed the same thing?

[maligned]

I think you're right, Dave, despite what I wrote. TSN has always claimed that the choice to run is not based on exact thresholds. My only point was that it seems like HAL considers the final raw numerical probability, rather than just stealing someone a certain percentage of times.
Basically, there are two ways to look at how HAL may consider running someone. Let’s look at a scenario: Torii Hunter has a 13 steal rating when he doesn’t get his good lead. Imagine that I’ve set my strategy settings for stealing to “aggressive.” Now, the two ways we could look at how HAL decides whether to run Hunter or now would be the following: 1) HAL considers the fact that Hunter is supposed to be aggressive, and steals when he doesn’t have his good lead a certain percentage of the time, based on the 13 rating, no matter what the hold and arm ratings of the pitcher and catcher may be, or 2) HAL looks at the final adjusted rating (plus or minus the hold and arm ratings of the pitcher and catcher), THEN steals a certain percentage of the time based on that number. Imagine the hold rating is –2 and the catcher’s arm is –1. Now the final numerical chance is actually 10, instead of 13.
My original point was that I think HAL considers this final numerical chance, NOT the original rating of 13 when deciding whether to steal a certain percentage of times. So, I think once you have your settings in place, HAL will steal a certain percentage of times on a 13 final probability and a certain percentage of times on a 17 probability…no matter who the basestealer is. It seems like adjusting your aggression or lack thereof against certain teams isn’t as important as it seems on the surface. If you’re set to aggressive, HAL will go a higher percentage of the time on a 15 probability than he would on a normal setting. Your changing of settings only seems to affect how HAL decides to act once he has the final probability in hand.
As you said in your post, Dave, when HAL decides to go is still unpredictable and not an exact science…I just think we might be looking at his decision-making process wrong at times.

[pedakrla]

I agree, maligned. It makes sense that HAL would consider the final numerical chance, as opposed to the original rating. I'm pretty much convinced that arm strength on the opposing team need not be considered in deciding on "aggressive" vs. "normal" etc. for stealing and base running. I still have a nagging feeling in my gut that probably won't go away until we can see HAL's programming, but my brain says you're right.

On the bigger question, though, I still think actively managing the stealing and base running settings can pay dividends. There are other factors to consider--hitters' vs. pitchers' park, hittability of the pitchers you expect to face--for example.

[maligned]

Good point. I would have to agree.

[MARCPELLETIER]

I am pretty convinced as well that Hal looks at the final rating.

To explain Dave's querry about sometimes looking a runner steal second and sometimes not in the same situation: I think that most ot the times, it depends on whether the runner "got" his lead or not. When a runner "got his lead" number, then Hal is forced to sent him. If the runner doesn't get his lead, then Hal have the choice to get with the steal (with the second steal number) or to stay at first.

I agree with most of what maligned said. The absolute key is to avoid outs. However, this doesn't mean you should avoid to steal. If it is safe to steal, then you should steal!!!

Personally, I like to set my ratings at "conservative". It usually provides my team with a stealing success around 80%, which is more than satisfactory to me.

One key to avoid useless outs, I believe, is to make sure that the computer holds down the number of hit-and-run. I've seen many throwing outs on what apparantly looks like a hit-and-run try.

Also, I believe that it does make sense, sometimes, to be aggressive. It makes sense when the T-rating of the catcher is really high. Of course, if the catcher is IRod (T high, but arm at -3), then it's tough to be aggressive. But if the catcher is Munson or Nevin, then I suggest to be aggressive, especially if the pitchers are good.

[maligned]

Yeah, Marcus, if you can be successful 80% of the time, you won't hurt yourself stealing. You still don't help yourself much, but you won't hurt yourself. If you drop down to 70%, you're definitely damaging your offense.

[franky35]

I would love to see the charts for bunting and/or pitchers hitting and/or hit-n-run and/or any other hard data that would help me strategize.

HAL is driving me crazy. HAL tells me, "Sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."

Here's what's been happening: In my first league (a 69 league) I have Joe Morgan (AA rated) and Frank Fernandez (E). I set steal to aggressive, hit-n-run to extra conservative, bunt to extra conservative, Morgan set to steal more, Fernandez set to don't steal. So far, Morgan has 7 steal attempts and Fernandez has 5 attempts. Some of Fernandez' attempts could be a result of hit-n-run but the last caught stealing was with 2 outs and a hitter that I've selected for don't hit-n-run. HAL can't be stopped, he is convinced that Fernandez should steal. Can HAL be stopped?