by pedakrla » Fri Sep 08, 2006 11:26 am
Welcome, casey. My take on WHIP before ERA is this: WHIP is a better indicator of a pitcher's ability than ERA. There's too much luck (or "randomness") in a pitcher's ERA. We've all seen the pitcher who keeps putting guys on base, but gets out of jams time after time. Commentators will often call that "bearing down in the clutch," or something like that, and there may be some element of that. Most of it, though (according to guys who study baseball stats a lot more than I do), is just luck. You may not be so lucky if you have that pitcher on your team.
To take it a step further, which may be further than you want to go at this point, you will hear guys on the boards recommending that you "look at the (Strat) card" when evaluating a pitcher or a hitter. If you're into statistics and spreadsheets, and know a little about sabermetrics, you can fine-tune your analysis and calculate probability of success from the raw data on each card. There are plenty of successful Strat players, though, who don't go to that level of detail. Also, with practice and experience, you will learn to scan a card quickly for key things and reach valid conclusions.
On speed vs. OBP at the top of the lineup: "sabermetricians" are pretty unanimous that the stolen base is not as potent an offensive weapon as many baseball people believe. It's more important to have a lot of guys getting on base (giving them the opportunity to score) than it is to have fewer guys on base that steal a lot of bases.
An example to illustrate: player A has an OBP for the season of .300 and steals 50 bases. Using some sabermetric thumbrules and reasonable assumptions about the other hitters on the team, this player "creates" approximately 90-95 runs for the season, only about 5-10 of which are due to his stolen bases.
Player B has an OBP for the season of .350 with no stolen bases. This player creates approximately 100 runs for the season. A difference of 5-10 runs may not seem like much, but it can mean an extra win or two over the course of a season. As competitive as these on-line strat leagues are, that is often the difference between making the playoffs and not.