Analyzing defense and hold ratings re: basepaths aggression

[hechojazz]

When deciding how aggressive to set your manager settings concerning taking extra bases or stealing, how should the interaction between a team's OF and C arms, and its SP hold ratings be seen? My current team has great defense but poor hold ratings (I-Rod behind the plate with his -3 arm, and OF ratings from left to right of -1, -3 and -5). But Maddux has a +7 hold rating, El Duque +5, Prior and Halladay +0 - I've got one decent hold rating in my starters, Lowry at -5. And my pen can't hold anybody either, Benitez at +7 the worst example. But will those arms behind the plate and in the OF work to reduce the gap, or should I expect my opponents to run wild on me despite those arm ratings?

And when I look at other teams along these lines, and I see little to be concerned about defensively, but their SPs have hold ratings of -1 or -2, how should I expect them to perform if I set my runners to take advantage of a perceived weakness in their ability to stop the run?

ZIMBABWE BWANAS
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/team/team_other.html?user_id=22621

:roll:

[LMBombers]

Personally I set my base running to normal at the beginning of the year and never change it.

As to base stealing, I check that before every series to try and give my base stealers a higher success rate. I look at the opposing catcher and the 3 likely starters for the series. If the hold ratings + the catcher's arm rating are between -1 and +1 for all three games then I set my base stealing setting to normal. If it is +2 or higher I bump it up to agressive. If it is -2 or -3 then I would go with conservative. -4 or below and it is extra conservative. You have to make a judgement call if for one game the rating would be -5 and another game it would be +5.

All of the above also depends on the makeup of your team. The above suggestions are for teams with overall good base stealers. If you play in Coors and have a team full of sluggers who run like slugs then I would just leave it on conservative most of the time regardless.

[tersignf]

Your last point is the best one and the most overlooked usually--context. Every one of the questions asked depend on context. If you have a high OBA team in a pitcher's park, with speed and decent steal ratings, you may leave it aggressive all the time. Or it may be a judgement call like LM said, depending on extreme matchups.

So it depends on your team and its opponents. Run through your lineup and man by man, figure out what you think a few of the most likely run scoring scenarios are for your sequence of batters.
i.e., when you have Travis Hafner in the 4-hole who will basically hit a HR or a BB more often than other things in a hitter's park, do you want the number 2 or 3 hitter running? or do you just want baserunners? I'd say the latter for sure.

But if you have someone like Rowand in a pitcher's park, you might want that runner being aggressive so that he will score on a single** or a double.

Really does depend. And it pays to fashion your team in a complimentary, balanced manner...but you still have to accentuate your strengths and minimize your weaknesses.

[1crazycanuk]

nevermind...I misread your post

BTW...I was wondering this myself. Thanks for asking it.

[hechojazz]

Well I always mark any player "don't Steal" if they've got a rating of D or E, leave stealing unmarked one way or another with C rated stealers, and mark 'em "steal more" if they're B or above. Then I try to adjust the aggressiveness depending on the composition of my opponent on a given night. I just feel stressed trying to determine how to go in that regard when an opponent's hold ratings are good but the catcher arm's poor, or vice versa. Add to that the OF arm ratings and deciding how to adjust settings for aggressive basepath running...thought I'd ask!

[1crazycanuk]

That's the method I use for each player as well.

[tersignf]

Oh OK...yes that's a solid way to do it, but I'd still not want to have a guy like BGiles running, nor the guy after him hitting and running,regardless of who is pitching/catching, if I have a solid cleanup guy. Some of those B rating stealers are misleading because of their (in)ability to take a good lead.
GL!

[durantjerry]

I don't think you should ever really go above conservative with any of the base running settings. The exception might be running the bass with a fast pitching team. In my experience, you will not consistently achieve a good percentage of success(70% bstealing for example) with anything over a conservative rating. Hit and run should be set to conservative or extra conservative and not used "more" with good hitters, but more with a guy like Furcal, for example. In this game, you can pretty much let the opposition run all they want and still win unless you are in a pitching division/league.

[Mean Dean]

[quote:abdb5ff568="durantjerry"]I don't think you should ever really go above conservative with any of the base running settings. The exception might be running the bass with a fast pitching team. In my experience, you will not consistently achieve a good percentage of success(70% bstealing for example) with anything over a conservative rating.[/quote:abdb5ff568]I agree with this; I think that when you ramp up the overall baserunning frequency, you'll get guys running in worse situations, rather than what you want, which is guys running more often in the good situations. So keep it at conservative or extra conservative, and use "steal more" to make the basestealer run more GIVEN that the overall success rate is ok.

The letter ratings play no role in the game honestly, and you need to look beyond them a bit. It's very important what a player's automatic outs are. e.g. someone like DeJesus - *2-7,12/8-10 - is a C-rated stealer, but should absolutely be set to "don't steal if held", because he'll get caught 33% of the time before he even gets started, and the math just isn't worth it. And you can also set the 3/- (20-6) types to "steal more", even though that would be a D-rated stealer.

[childsmwc]

The following rule is pasted in response to DeanTSC's comment about trying for the lead all the time with certain players:

24.0 PICKOFFS AND BALKS (OPTIONAL)

If you are using the optional system for individual balks, wild pitches and passed balls, pickoffs and balks are possible when using the Supplementary Stealing System.

A more complete description of the balk‑wild pitch‑passed ball system is in Section 29. We include the pickoff/balk play here for your convenience:

24.1 When rolling for a lead, also roll the 20‑sided die along with the two colored dice.

A. If the 20‑sided die roll is 3‑20, discard the 20‑sided die and continue normally with the Supplementary Stealing System. (If a steal is attempted, you will need to roll the 20‑sided die again.)

B. If the 20‑sided roll is 1, the runner attempting the lead may be picked off. Refer to the runner's second steal success rating (in parentheses) and roll the 20‑sided again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the runner's rating, the runner dives back safely, but has failed to achieve his good lead.

If the number rolled is higher than the runner's rating, the runner has been picked off (statistically, this does not count as a time caught stealing).

C. If the 20‑sided roll is 2, there is a possible balk. Refer to the pitcher's balk rating (at the top of the Advanced side of his card) and roll the 20‑sided die again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the balk rating, a balk has occurred and all baserunners advance one base. If the number rolled is higher than the balk rating, the runner dives back safely, but the runner has failed to achieve his good lead.

Most people overlook the above rules, when trying for a lead with the 2/- (20-6) kind of guys. Basically there is a 5% chance on every lead attempt that you can get picked off. On these pick off attempts the secondary number is consulted for a chance to return safely so 30% chance if its a 6. Therefore when trying for a lead with these types of players, you have a 3.5% of getting picked off and only 2.8% to get the lead. Your lead chance goes up to about 5.6% if they get the lead on a 3.

Therefore when you factor in the pick off rules running guys with poor lead chances (regardless of how good there sb success chance is) is not a good call.

Bbrool