BaseRuns - 2006 hitters
Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 10:35 pmI have used the BaseRuns (BsR) formula to evaluate all of the cards available in TSN's 2006 SOM set. I will soon post the BsR equivalents of all of the fielding ratings. This will allow you to get a total value for players, by subtracting their fielding BsR allowed from their offensive BsR contributed.
BaseRuns has been found to be a more accurate estimation of runs contributed than James' "runs created," especially at the extremes (i.e., for very good or very bad players.) [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs]Wiki article[/url]
The version of the formula I'm using has these components:
A = H + BB + HBP - HR - .5*IBB
B = [1.4*TB -.6*H -3*HR +.1*(BB+HBP-IBB) +.9*(SB-CS-GDP)] *1.1
C = AB - H + CS + GDP
D = HR
BaseRuns are then:
A*(B/(B+C))+D
In other words, the number of runs you'll score equals the number of runners you get on base (A) multiplied by the rate at which you score them (B/[B+C]), plus homeruns (D), which do both. Makes sense, right? Yeah.
Since the numbers off the ratings disk are measured per 108 plate appearances, AB here equals (108-(BB+HBP)). GDP was assumed to be 18.75% times the player's DP rating, as 18.75% was the percentages of plate appearances from 1974-2004 that took place with a runner on 1st and fewer than two outs. SB and CS were assumed to be the player's real-life totals, divided by 6 (I figured 108 PA was about one-sixth of a season.) IBB was not included. Park effects are here assumed to be 8/8/8/8. It's assumed that batters face 25% lefty pitchers and 75% righty pitchers. Changing any of these assumptions, of course, would change the eventual outcome.
[url=http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p6X476hqeSoY5KGI8EFuRGw]Here are the rankings[/url].
BaseRuns has been found to be a more accurate estimation of runs contributed than James' "runs created," especially at the extremes (i.e., for very good or very bad players.) [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs]Wiki article[/url]
The version of the formula I'm using has these components:
A = H + BB + HBP - HR - .5*IBB
B = [1.4*TB -.6*H -3*HR +.1*(BB+HBP-IBB) +.9*(SB-CS-GDP)] *1.1
C = AB - H + CS + GDP
D = HR
BaseRuns are then:
A*(B/(B+C))+D
In other words, the number of runs you'll score equals the number of runners you get on base (A) multiplied by the rate at which you score them (B/[B+C]), plus homeruns (D), which do both. Makes sense, right? Yeah.
Since the numbers off the ratings disk are measured per 108 plate appearances, AB here equals (108-(BB+HBP)). GDP was assumed to be 18.75% times the player's DP rating, as 18.75% was the percentages of plate appearances from 1974-2004 that took place with a runner on 1st and fewer than two outs. SB and CS were assumed to be the player's real-life totals, divided by 6 (I figured 108 PA was about one-sixth of a season.) IBB was not included. Park effects are here assumed to be 8/8/8/8. It's assumed that batters face 25% lefty pitchers and 75% righty pitchers. Changing any of these assumptions, of course, would change the eventual outcome.
[url=http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p6X476hqeSoY5KGI8EFuRGw]Here are the rankings[/url].