Arm/range studies

[Mean Dean]

This is a study of the effects of CF arm rating. I used the 2006 Mets as my control group. The following players started every game: Paul Lo Duca C, Carlos Delgado 1B, Jose Valentin 2B, Jose Reyes SS, David Wright 3B, Endy Chavez LF, Carlos Beltran CF, Shawn Green RF. I made Green into a 1 fielder because I didn't want the computer to replace him for defense, since I plan to do this same study for RF as well, so I wanted to make sure he played every inning or damn close.

In 50 simulated seasons, this team allowed an average of 650 runs per season.

I then changed Beltran from a -3 arm, to a 0 arm.

In 50 sim seasons, the team with this change made allowed 652 runs per season. (In case you're [i:385d085c75]really[/i:385d085c75] bad at math, that's a difference of two runs :P

I then changed Beltran to a +3 arm.

In 50 sim seasons, that team allowed 667 runs a season. (Actually exactly 666.66, which is spooky :twisted: In any event, that's a difference of 17 runs.

Note that the 650-run range is only about four runs allowed per game, which is really not that many. It's possible that on a team with worse pitching/defense that allowed more baserunners, the effect of the throwing arm would be more. Nonetheless, it can't be [i:385d085c75]that[/i:385d085c75] far off; a typical team might give up five runs per game, but six would be a very large amount, and eight would be almost impossible.

I think it's instructive to know that the difference between a -3 arm and a +3 arm, which is about as big a difference as you're likely to see among the vast majority of reasonable everyday players, is only around 20 runs, give or take a couple. That makes it clear that, although a difference of that magnitude in throwing arms is indeed very significant, a difference of one or two "arm points" is only going to add up to a handful of runs.

It's interesting that the difference between a -3 and a 0 was only two runs, and yet the difference between a 0 and a +3 was an additional 15 runs on top of that. At least according to this study, a bad arm is more of a liability than a good arm is a help. I will have to test the arm ratings other than -3/0/+3 to flesh this out more fully, but I plan to do similar studies for catcher, LF and RF before I get around to doing that for CF.

[keyzick]

Interesting study Dean. I'd be interested in seeing the difference in Catcher arms too...??

I don't pay too much attention to the arms myself; however, one aspect that can seemingly make a big difference is ratings 1-4 for the corner outfield slots v centerfield slots. I've seen the link that lists the avg rolls per game, odds per at bat, etc...., but seeing it in terms of total runs based on sims makes it a lot more tangible.

Good work, look forward to seeing your next results. :D

[geekor]

Well the main reason for having those big arms is to keep them from trying to advance. If the other teams are playing wait for the 3 run bomb style (ie super conservative), the big arms in the OF go to waste.

Look more at ATG3 where some people have an entire team of guys whose running is 1-15 or higher and see how those negative arms make a bigger difference. In the 200x games, it's not as big of a deal.

[frog17]

I tend to agree with geekor. I think arm strenght can be more or less significant depending on the style of play of the other teams in your league. I for one am always looking to cheat defensivley in order to bolster offense. All that depends however on what kids of teams I am playing which may indicate places where I don't need to have good throwing arms, etc.
Nonetheless, that study is quite interesting. As always, dean, you have some of the most thought provoking posts in this forum.

[visick]

Thanks for the study Dean...Nice work.

Interesting.

I had thought this was the case.

I tend to use a negative arm in CF but have on an occasion, used a + arm.
My thinking with the + arm is if that player is NOT playing above his card's #'s, he's costing me.

No study behind it, just my gut... :wink:

[Mean Dean]

Well, I'm not gonna do this study for ATG, so we'll probably never know for sure. On the other hand, it's easy to slap someone down with a vague generalization, because you neither have to do any research, nor do you have to commit yourself to saying anything specific about anything. The only way to come up with an answer that is ultimately going to be useful in terms of putting together your team, is to quantify things in terms of runs. I'm estimating that the difference between a -3 and +3 CF arm is about 20 runs. What do [i:bd34869c77]you[/i:bd34869c77] think it is? Is it 10 runs for every point of arm... which would mean the difference between a -3 and +3 arm in CF is 60 runs... which would mean, based on 2007 stats to date, that the difference is the equivalent of replacing Vladimir Guerrero with Rob Mackowiak in your offensive lineup? How much can it really be?

Perhaps we'll get some more exactitude when I do LF/RF as well. (The very early results -- changing Endy from a -2 arm to a -5 -- are suggesting that perhaps the effect of an "extreme arm" such as a -5 is very different than a three-point arm difference in the middle of the spectrum would be.) For now, I did essentially the same study with catcher range. I've been on record as saying that this rating is unimportant, because its only major effect (in the board game) is affect the amount of PB given up, and not all that much at that. But [b:bd34869c77]luckyman[/b:bd34869c77] pointed out that catcher's range also affects the ability to block the plate, [url=http://forums.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=183982#1737142]and estimated:[/url][quote:bd34869c77]a 1-rated catcher will save 20 runs compared to a 5-rated catcher, or 10 runs compared to a 3-rated catcher, just for this blocking rule[/quote:bd34869c77]... which is almost exactly what I found here. Lo Duca is normally a 3 range. Again, the control group, with every '06 Met (other than Green) with their normal fielding ratings, allowed 650 runs.

When Lo Duca's range was changed to a 1, the Mets allowed an average of 637 runs (50 seasons simmed.) So that's 13 fewer per season.

When Lo Duca was a 5 range, the Mets allowed an average of 656 runs (50 seasons simmed.) So that's 6 more per season.

Again, it's a little curious that good range seems to help more than bad range hurts (actually the opposite of the CF arm study, where a bad arm hurt more than a relatively better arm helped -- again, that may be because the relatively better arm was a 0 and the bad arm was a +3, and that the effects get disproportionate the further you get from 0; we'll have more info on that soon.) But, [b:bd34869c77]lucky[/b:bd34869c77]'s estimate of a 20-run difference between a 1 and 5 range at catcher, and about half that between a 3 and either extreme, seems remarkably accurate.

[mjf309]

This is interesting stuff. Two questions:

1. How do you mechanically simulate a season?
2. How do you change one variable (like an outfielders arm rating or range)?

Thanks for doing this and sharing

[LMBombers]

by using the CDRom game version.

[palacekillers]

I'm trying to sim my league right now to see how a couple of small changes will affect it but I'm new to the CD Rom version. It seems very labor intensive and not very user friendly. Am I missing something? Or does it just take a lot of getting used to?

[Mean Dean]

It sounds like you are missing something, yeah :P All you have to do to sim the season, is File → New Scheduled (which also has its own button right under "File"), and "Play All." Then if you wanna do it again, you do League → Restart League and do it again.